This much is clear: the Gulf can no longer rely on America in Yemen. Last week, I suggested that following the Houthi takeover of the capital Sanaa, the Gulf faced the threat that America would side with the rebel group, purely to continue its fight against Al Qaeda.
Days later, confirmation came that the US was doing exactly that. Both the New York Times and The Wall Street Journal have reported on a “strategic shift” in relations, with the US even talking to the Houthis on military matters.
To realise how astonishing this is, step back for a moment.
In November, after the Houthi rebels overran the capital, the United States asked the United Nations to slap sanctions on three people.
Two were commanders of the Houthi rebels and the other was the deposed president Ali Abdullah Saleh. Mr Saleh is widely thought to be assisting the rebels – and leaked phone calls between the two essentially confirming there is contact and coordination.
The US did that in order to stabilise the security situation, prop up the political power of the president Abdrabu Mansur Hadi and ensure the Gulf-backed transition could continue.
Now, even though the capital Sanaa is occupied by the rebels, the president is under house arrest and the transitional process is in tatters, the US is talking and coordinating with the rebels.
That may make sense for the Americans, whose main interests lie in the fight against Al Qaeda in the south. For America’s allies on the Arabian Peninsula, it is at least a breach of trust and an irresponsible policy given how important the stability of Yemen is to the whole of the GCC. Having a lawless country with Al Qaeda elements on the borders of Saudi Arabia and Oman is serious strategic threat.
New policies are needed from the GCC. The first is to empower the president. This, for now, is easier said than done.
The Houthis have set a three-day deadline – which ends today – for a solution to be reached, or they have threatened to take over the functions of the state.
This is an impossible situation for Mr Hadi and the GCC: Mr Hadi remains, in essence, a hostage of the group. If he accepts their demands and withdraws his resignation, he will continue as president while the capital is under their control.
If he doesn’t, it is obvious who intends to fill the gap: the Houthis made their demands at a meeting in Sanaa attended by only two political groups: the Houthis themselves and the General People’s Congress (GPC) – the party of Mr Saleh. With no good options, it is better for Mr Hadi to allow the Houthis and the deposed Mr Saleh to run the government, because at least that demonstrates the coordination between the two.
If Mr Hadi is released from house arrest, the GCC should invite him to a capital city as a show of solidarity. Riyadh would be best: Mr Hadi could bring his condolences and congratulations to King Salman. If Riyadh seems too confrontational a place, then another city, perhaps Abu Dhabi, would suffice. But the GCC must send a message that all Yemen’s neighbours consider Mr Hadi the rightful president.
The next thing the Gulf states needs is leverage. Their ability to influence events inside the country is limited. But by reaching out to two groups, even if through intermediaries, that could change.
The first is the Joint Meeting Parties, a coalition of Yemeni opposition groups that opposes the Houthi takeover. The second is Hirak, the southern movement, which holds the Houthis, Al Qaeda and the deposed president Mr Saleh in equal contempt. Both groups would be valuable in mobilising political support against the agenda of the Houthis. And both have been largely forgotten by the US and the GCC.
The situation in Yemen will not be resolved soon. The Houthis and Mr Saleh have been too cunning for that. But they have been aided by a distracted GCC and a narrowly focused US. The GCC must take steps to protect its own interests. Even if Yemen’s president is released from house arrest, the Houthis will be holding Yemen hostage for some time to come.
falyafai@thenational.ae
On Twitter: @FaisalAlYafai
