An interview I conducted with the Lebanese politician Walid Jumblatt last week somehow received a great deal of attention in Lebanon. Mr Jumblatt was speaking to Diwan, the new blog of the Carnegie Middle East programme, which I edit.
The Druze leader covered a wide range of Lebanese and regional topics, and his remarks were, collectively, an assessment of the region’s disarray. Mr Jumblatt matters because he has spent almost 40 years navigating the treacherous waters of Lebanese politics, and is still alive to apply the lessons learnt. He remains a dominant figure, despite his tiny community, and the way he leans in search of communal survival is a good indication of where Lebanon is heading.
Many of Mr Jumblatt’s individual statements were highlighted in the media, not least that he would not reconcile with Syrian president Bashar Al Assad because he would prefer to commit political suicide on his own terms. However, the Druze leader painted a more general context for his interpretation of regional developments. And it is this that his political enemies in particular must have retained.
In effect, Mr Jumblatt admitted five things. He mocked the international community over Syria and underlined that the United States was both “weak” and “didn’t care” about the Middle East. This situation led him to conclude, secondly, that the future of the region would be defined by “power-sharing” between the Americans, the Russians and the Iranians. Bolstering Iran’s influence was the nuclear deal the international community signed with Tehran.
Mr Jumblatt’s third admission was that Mr Al Assad would remain in office, “unfortunately and cynically and immorally”. At the same time, Lebanon would not have a president, because the election process was blocked by Iran and Syria. Both were looking to win in Syria and then “impose on Lebanon a new diktat, maybe with new terms”. This would be facilitated, he implied, by the fact that his strongest ally, Saad Hariri, was getting “weaker and weaker”.
And finally, when asked about his relationship with Hizbollah, given that it supported a Syrian regime he so ardently opposes, Mr Jumblatt replied: “To survive means to have good relations with all the components in the country, above all [Hizbollah]. That’s it. That’s the safest way for the Druze to survive and retain what they still have politically and demographically.”
Mr Jumblatt is a shrewd man and he was keen to publicise the interview, placing it on the website of his party newspaper. While up front the interview was a repetition of many of the things he said before about Syria and the region, particularly his antagonism toward Mr Al Assad and his criticisms of Russia, the essence of his portrayal was that Iran and Syria had won in Lebanon. And if Mr Jumblatt’s main aim is to ensure his community’s survival, adjusting to this new reality is imperative. This was the implicit message he was sending.
That is why I had asked the Druze leader about reconciliation with the Syrian president. He angrily rejected the idea. The more important question, which should have been posed, was whether his son Taymour, who today is slowly assuming the mantle of Druze leadership, would do so? After all, Mr Jumblatt himself travelled to Damascus after the assassination of his father in 1977, though he knew the Syrians were behind the killing, in order not to find himself on the wrong side of their new hegemony over Lebanon.
Mr Jumblatt’s two priorities have always been to preserve his community and Jumblatti leadership over the community. As the balance of power in the region shifts to the advantage of Iran and the Assad regime, the Druze leader will have little choice but to find a role for himself within this new alignment. He may not like it, but Mr Jumblatt is not someone who allows displeasure to undermine business. He might personally attack Mr Al Assad, but if his survival means a Jumblatt has to deal with him, so be it.
For Lebanon as a whole, the war in Syria will have existential repercussions. Not only is there a substantial Sunni Syrian refugee population in the country that has radically altered the demographics of the country; but Mr Al Assad and Hizbollah are keen to reverse the gains of 2005, when the Syrian army withdrew from Lebanon after the assassination of the former prime minister Rafik Hariri.
Amid western indifference and Arab weakness, it is difficult to imagine Hizbollah’s foes putting up effective resistance to such dynamics. Mr Jumblatt’s message depressed many people, but the more important question they should have asked was how he intends to come to grips with the situation. By showing his enemies that he recognised that his calculations had failed, the Druze leader seemed to be admitting that he, or rather his family, would adapt.
Whether that buys Mr Jumblatt breathing space is unclear. But his priority is that it buys his son and political heir the margin of manoeuvre needed for him to continue in survival mode.
Michael Young is a writer and editor in Beirut
On Twitter @BeirutCalling
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE squad to face Ireland
Ahmed Raza (captain), Chirag Suri (vice-captain), Rohan Mustafa, Mohammed Usman, Mohammed Boota, Zahoor Khan, Junaid Siddique, Waheed Ahmad, Zawar Farid, CP Rizwaan, Aryan Lakra, Karthik Meiyappan, Alishan Sharafu, Basil Hameed, Kashif Daud, Adithya Shetty, Vriitya Aravind
Types of bank fraud
1) Phishing
Fraudsters send an unsolicited email that appears to be from a financial institution or online retailer. The hoax email requests that you provide sensitive information, often by clicking on to a link leading to a fake website.
2) Smishing
The SMS equivalent of phishing. Fraudsters falsify the telephone number through “text spoofing,” so that it appears to be a genuine text from the bank.
3) Vishing
The telephone equivalent of phishing and smishing. Fraudsters may pose as bank staff, police or government officials. They may persuade the consumer to transfer money or divulge personal information.
4) SIM swap
Fraudsters duplicate the SIM of your mobile number without your knowledge or authorisation, allowing them to conduct financial transactions with your bank.
5) Identity theft
Someone illegally obtains your confidential information, through various ways, such as theft of your wallet, bank and utility bill statements, computer intrusion and social networks.
6) Prize scams
Fraudsters claiming to be authorised representatives from well-known organisations (such as Etisalat, du, Dubai Shopping Festival, Expo2020, Lulu Hypermarket etc) contact victims to tell them they have won a cash prize and request them to share confidential banking details to transfer the prize money.
The specs: 2018 Ducati SuperSport S
Price, base / as tested: Dh74,900 / Dh85,900
Engine: 937cc
Transmission: Six-speed gearbox
Power: 110hp @ 9,000rpm
Torque: 93Nm @ 6,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 5.9L / 100km
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 611bhp
Torque: 620Nm
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Price: upon application
On sale: now
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
More on Quran memorisation:
My Country: A Syrian Memoir
Kassem Eid, Bloomsbury
Tour de France Stage 16:
165km run from Le Puy-en-Velay to Romans-sur-Isère
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The Indoor Cricket World Cup
When: September 16-23
Where: Insportz, Dubai
Indoor cricket World Cup:
Insportz, Dubai, September 16-23
UAE fixtures:
Men
Saturday, September 16 – 1.45pm, v New Zealand
Sunday, September 17 – 10.30am, v Australia; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Monday, September 18 – 2pm, v England; 7.15pm, v India
Tuesday, September 19 – 12.15pm, v Singapore; 5.30pm, v Sri Lanka
Thursday, September 21 – 2pm v Malaysia
Friday, September 22 – 3.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 3pm, grand final
Women
Saturday, September 16 – 5.15pm, v Australia
Sunday, September 17 – 2pm, v South Africa; 7.15pm, v New Zealand
Monday, September 18 – 5.30pm, v England
Tuesday, September 19 – 10.30am, v New Zealand; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Thursday, September 21 – 12.15pm, v Australia
Friday, September 22 – 1.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 1pm, grand final
If you go
The flights
There are various ways of getting to the southern Serengeti in Tanzania from the UAE. The exact route and airstrip depends on your overall trip itinerary and which camp you’re staying at.
Flydubai flies direct from Dubai to Kilimanjaro International Airport from Dh1,350 return, including taxes; this can be followed by a short flight from Kilimanjaro to the Serengeti with Coastal Aviation from about US$700 (Dh2,500) return, including taxes. Kenya Airways, Emirates and Etihad offer flights via Nairobi or Dar es Salaam.
if you go
The flights
Etihad, Emirates and Singapore Airlines fly direct from the UAE to Singapore from Dh2,265 return including taxes. The flight takes about 7 hours.
The hotel
Rooms at the M Social Singapore cost from SG $179 (Dh488) per night including taxes.
The tour
Makan Makan Walking group tours costs from SG $90 (Dh245) per person for about three hours. Tailor-made tours can be arranged. For details go to www.woknstroll.com.sg
VEZEETA PROFILE
Date started: 2012
Founder: Amir Barsoum
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: HealthTech / MedTech
Size: 300 employees
Funding: $22.6 million (as of September 2018)
Investors: Technology Development Fund, Silicon Badia, Beco Capital, Vostok New Ventures, Endeavour Catalyst, Crescent Enterprises’ CE-Ventures, Saudi Technology Ventures and IFC
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The specs
Engine: 5.0-litre V8
Power: 480hp at 7,250rpm
Torque: 566Nm at 4,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: L/100km
Price: Dh306,495
On sale: now
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Rajasthan Royals 153-5 (17.5 ov)
Delhi Daredevils 60-4 (6 ov)
Rajasthan won by 10 runs (D/L method)
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now