Visitors tour the medina, the old city of Tunis. Zoubeir Souissi / Reuters
Visitors tour the medina, the old city of Tunis. Zoubeir Souissi / Reuters

Tunisia remains a beacon of hope in the Arab world



When I arrived in Tunisia this week, the ruling Nidaa Tounes party faced one of its most challenging moments as dozens of its parliamentary deputies left the party. Meanwhile, one of the more poignant examples of dialogue in North Africa, the Hammamet Conference, is underway and, in a few weeks, representatives of Tunisian civil society will receive a Nobel peace prize. And neighbours to the north, east and west, as well as Tunisians themselves, are still worried about Tunisians flocking to ISIL and radical extremism. This is Tunisia in 2015.

Nidaa Tounes, a motley crew of non-Islamists including secularists and leftists, won a plurality of seats in Tunisia’s first elections after the revolutionary uprising in 2010-11. That meant that 86 members of the 217-seat parliament were from Nidaa Tounes. Today, that number has dropped by 31.

There is no risk of the government falling as a result – it still has the seats and alliances it needs to continue, and the former Nidaa Tounes deputies have declared they will support it in any case. Nevertheless, the situation for Tunisian democracy is interesting, and while very specific to Tunisia, is relevant to the Arab world at large.

There is no genuine suggestion in Tunisia that a military intervention is going to "save the day" akin to Egypt in 2013 – the politicians in this discussion are thus, thankfully, left with no other option but to compromise, engage and find a way through.

Will that continue to be the case indefinitely? Certainly many from within the Ennahdha party, the main Islamist political current in Tunisia, don’t seem to feel so. The suspicion and fear that the gains of the past four years might be snatched away still exists, and it energises many people. That’s natural – and as successive electoral parliamentary and presidential transitions of power take place, that fear should become a part of the past.

Tunisia’s accomplishments cannot be taken for granted, though, and it is ever more important that against the deepening political rifts within the parliamentary system, there be a continual reminder that other models exist in the region. And many of them are not pretty.

Tunisia, even with its challenges, is still a place where activists of the region flock. Faced with enduring restrictions and restraints across the Arab world, large number of Egyptians, Libyans and others see in Tunisia a place where civil liberties are protected under the most progressive Arab constitution.

This week, a group of North African thinkers and activists have come to Hammamet to discuss the ideas of increasing inclusion and diminishing exclusion. It’s a theme that remains, alas, of great importance to the region. They’re engaging with each other, and also with Britons, with the conference being held under the auspices of the British Council, which has shown great foresight in assisting and supporting such a strategic dialogue. This is the only forum that brings emerging and established leaders in the Arab world and the UK together. There are few places in the Arab world where these discussions could be openly held.

But, as ever, the spectre of radical extremism overshadows events. The delegates will discuss extremism in the region as well as the UK. Tunisians make up a substantial proportion of those fighting in Syria and Iraq for ISIL, as well as in other radical groups around the region.

In Tunis, I encountered a brilliant researcher who is producing critical editions of classical Arab-Muslim texts – and he expressed his total lack of surprise that Tunisians had been deluded into joining such groups. To his mind, modern Tunisia had cut Tunisians away from their heritage of classical religion via intense modernisation on the one hand and an aggressive secularisation on the other. In such an environment, he argued, it was easy to find Tunisians unaware of the flaws and errors within radical religious thought – and, given the right circumstances, they might become vulnerable. It’s an argument worth pondering.

Looking back into that heritage, I walked by the mosque of Abd Al Rahman ibn Muhammad Al Hadrami in the old city of Tunis, and strolled past the house in which he was born. He's better known as Ibn Khaldun, a renaissance man who was considered by historians in the West and the Arab world as one of the great philosophers of the medieval era. British historian Arnold J Toynbee described Ibn Khaldun's Introduction as "a philosophy of history that is undoubtedly the greatest work of its kind that has ever yet been created by any mind in any time or place".

I was reminded that Ibn Khaldun wrote explicitly that the basis of government always had to be justice; that, at its core, a polity needed to consider justice first and foremost.

Justice alone will never be enough, but it is a critical and necessary component of any successful polity. It can never be perfectly achieved, but trying to achieve it is going to be far better than abandoning it on the altar of Machiavellian expediency.

Tunisia, slowly but surely, is hopefully going to be an example of that focus on justice for the Arab region. The region surely needs more of that.

Dr HA Hellyer is an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, and a non-resident senior fellow at the Rafik Hariri Centre for the Middle East at the Atlantic Council in Washington DC

On Twitter: @hahellyer

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Traits of Chinese zodiac animals

Tiger:independent, successful, volatile
Rat:witty, creative, charming
Ox:diligent, perseverent, conservative
Rabbit:gracious, considerate, sensitive
Dragon:prosperous, brave, rash
Snake:calm, thoughtful, stubborn
Horse:faithful, energetic, carefree
Sheep:easy-going, peacemaker, curious
Monkey:family-orientated, clever, playful
Rooster:honest, confident, pompous
Dog:loyal, kind, perfectionist
Boar:loving, tolerant, indulgent   

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Countdown to Zero exhibition will show how disease can be beaten

Countdown to Zero: Defeating Disease, an international multimedia exhibition created by the American Museum of National History in collaboration with The Carter Center, will open in Abu Dhabi a  month before Reaching the Last Mile.

Opening on October 15 and running until November 15, the free exhibition opens at The Galleria mall on Al Maryah Island, and has already been seen at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

 

Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
A State of Passion

Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi

Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah

Rating: 4/5