Donald Trump made a speech about Afghanistan last week that was so full of contradictions it was incoherent. It authorised more troops but did not mention how many. It spoke of victory but did not say how it would be achieved. It used the word "strategy" without any hint that a plan lay behind it. But it also did something quite striking. It reframed America's relationship with Pakistan and India.
The speech sought to put pressure on Pakistan for the country's on-going and long-standing support of extremists. It did so by ratcheting up the tough rhetoric on Pakistan and by moving closer to India and seeking its involvement in addressing the critical problems of the region, a move guaranteed to further anger Pakistan.
It was not handled gracefully, but it was long overdue. Pakistan has been playing a dangerous double game with extremists and the West for a long time. Nothing has persuaded them to dial it back, in part because no leader in Pakistan ever speaks for the whole highly factionalised government. Further, India, the world’s largest democracy, is a much more natural ally of the US, a stalwart on terrorism, and a critical leg of America’s Indo-Pacific regional strategy. (Mr Trump gets credit for referring to the region using that term rather than Asia-Pacific, the standard US formulation that underplays the vital role of the sub-continent in assuring regional balance.)
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But the move carried with it a hidden risk that has yet to be widely discussed. When one speaks of the Indo-Pacific region and balance, of course, the principle counter-party in that balance is China, America's most important rival in the region. China is also once again involved in a stand-off with India regarding border issues in the Himalayas. As it happens, China is also an increasingly important player in the greater Middle East: as a top trading partner, as a vital voice on issues from the Iran nuclear deal to chemical weapons in Syria, and even as a growing military presence with the new base in Djibouti. Another is being contemplated in Pakistan.
In fact, China has placed its bets very clearly. Its largest embassy in the world is in Pakistan. It has committed to infrastructure links with Pakistan worth more than US$45 billion. It sees Pakistan as a vital ally versus India and a vital path to the Middle Eastern resources upon which its economy depends.
For that reason, when the US decided to increase pressure on Pakistan, it was also inviting greater tension with China and pushing those two nuclear powers closer together. While the decision to go after Pakistan was probably the right one, managing that pressure in a way that doesn’t have much greater and more grievous geopolitical consequences will take a great deal of diplomatic skill and attention, or it is likely to deepen faultlines and invite unintended consequences.
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Unfortunately, diplomacy is not a top priority for the Trump administration. Not only does the current US president lack a single diplomatic cell in his body, but he has weakened the state department by failing to fill key positions and threatening to cut funding for key programs. It is a direction that undercut some of the key pronouncements Mr Trump made regarding Afghanistan about seeking reform and political progress and economic development. It resonated especially given the decision made earlier this year to unceremoniously shutdown the state department office that was dealing with Afghanistan and Pakistan issues, the office that had precisely the capacity most essential to support the president's remarks last week.
When that office was set up, its first occupant, Richard Holbrooke, argued that in order to do the job in Afghanistan and Pakistan, he should also be given responsibility for managing the US relationship with India. The idea was ultimately shot down because it was seen as potentially too provocative to both sides in the India-Pakistan long-term rivalry. That was a reflection of the kind of strategic thinking that the Trump statement appeared to lack. Of course, it also resonates that right now there is no senior official in the entire US government with the diplomatic skill or sense of history that Richard Holbrooke brought to his work.
The lack of big picture thinking, the lack of a commitment to diplomacy and the lack of diplomatic skill and leadership are all the factors that are likely to make Trump’s Afghanistan goals harder to reach. That such shortcomings are likely to negatively impact the most important bilateral relationship in the world, between the US and China, and by extension China’s choices as it increasingly becomes one of the most important players in the greater Middle East make what was not said during Mr Trump’s speech potentially more important than the actual text or tone of his remarks.
David Rothkopf is CEO of The Rothkopf Group, a columnist for the Washington Post, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and most recently author of The Great Questions of Tomorrow
Ferrari
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How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Guide to intelligent investing
Investing success often hinges on discipline and perspective. As markets fluctuate, remember these guiding principles:
- Stay invested: Time in the market, not timing the market, is critical to long-term gains.
- Rational thinking: Breathe and avoid emotional decision-making; let logic and planning guide your actions.
- Strategic patience: Understand why you’re investing and allow time for your strategies to unfold.
THE%20SWIMMERS
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German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
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'How To Build A Boat'
Jonathan Gornall, Simon & Schuster
Company profile
Name: Tharb
Started: December 2016
Founder: Eisa Alsubousi
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: Luxury leather goods
Initial investment: Dh150,000 from personal savings
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Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $150,000
Current staff: 12
Stage: Pre-seed capital raising of $1 million
Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)
MATCH INFO
Norwich City 1 (Cantwell 75') Manchester United 2 (Aghalo 51' 118') After extra time.
Man of the match Harry Maguire (Manchester United)
The Little Things
Directed by: John Lee Hancock
Starring: Denzel Washington, Rami Malek, Jared Leto
Four stars
'I Want You Back'
Director:Jason Orley
Stars:Jenny Slate, Charlie Day
Rating:4/5
SOUTH%20KOREA%20SQUAD
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Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
The%20Mother%20
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In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
Vidaamuyarchi
Director: Magizh Thirumeni
Stars: Ajith Kumar, Arjun Sarja, Trisha Krishnan, Regina Cassandra
Rating: 4/5
Bio:
Favourite Quote: Prophet Mohammad's quotes There is reward for kindness to every living thing and A good man treats women with honour
Favourite Hobby: Serving poor people
Favourite Book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
Favourite food: Fish and vegetables
Favourite place to visit: London
DUBAI%20BLING%3A%20EPISODE%201
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