Nobel Peace prize winner Shirin Ebadi of Iran is tempering optimism after reformers made gains in recent parliamentary elections. Kacper Pempel / Reuters
Nobel Peace prize winner Shirin Ebadi of Iran is tempering optimism after reformers made gains in recent parliamentary elections. Kacper Pempel / Reuters

The West nervously grins as Iran ponders the future



The exiled Iranian Nobel peace prize winner Shirin Ebadi has described her country as culturally ready for democracy, but still in the grip of a “totalitarian regime which is trying to impose its beliefs on the people”. Her words come as a cold shower after the high hopes prompted in the West at the trouncing of the hardliners in last month’s parliamentary election.

The vote has generally been seen as a positive result for Hassan Rouhani, who is labelled a reformist in the West. His list won a plurality in the parliament, and there were some notable humiliations for the so-called conservatives, who call themselves “principlists” on the grounds that they brook no compromise on the principles of the Islamic Republic.

These hardliners were swept away in the capital, Tehran, and the result of the vote for the Assembly of Experts, a body which will eventually choose the successor to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was even more stunning. Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, previously the uncompromising chair of the assembly, failed to secure re-election.

In his farewell speech to the assembly, Ayatollah Yazdi spoke of his fears that the rising reformists might seek to change the foundation of the Islamic Republic, in which ultimate authority is held by an Islamic jurist not by the people. Referring to Mr Rouhani’s negotiations with the United States and its allies, he said: “Do not become happy with the enemy’s smile.”

So who is right? Mrs Ebadi has good reason to look behind the democratic process at the unchanging power-holders of the deep state, the Revolutionary Guard, the domestic security services and the judiciary. Awarded the Nobel Prize in 2003 at a previous high tide in hopes for reform, she has not been able to return to Iran since 2009.

Her husband and daughter have been arrested, and the intelligence services organised a honey trap for her husband, videoed the result, and sentenced him to death by stoning for adultery in order to force him to denounce his wife. This incident is related by Mrs Ebadi in her new autobiography, Until We Are Free: My Fight for Human Rights in Iran. She is not going to be silenced.

Mrs Ebadi told the BBC that western countries should have insisted on progress in Iranian human rights as part of the nuclear deal signed last year. Instead of rushing to do business with Iran, European countries should increase the list of high-ranking Iranians subject to travel bans.

These positions may be praiseworthy, but they do not belong in the real world, one in which Mr Obama’s priority in the Middle East was to bring Iran’s nuclear programme within legal limits, not to change the regime in Tehran, a goal which many in Washington still hanker after.

One can see in the optimistic assessments of the Iranian elections a dose of wishful thinking: that the West’s cosying up to the regime of the mullahs, which was done for reasons of security and national interest, is in fact driving change at the heart of the Iranian system.

There may be a nugget of truth here, but we should be wary of turning a blind eye to history. The truth of Iranian history is that Mohammad Khatami, the reformist president who served from 1997 to 2005, has been erased from the public sphere: it is illegal to publish his name or picture, though his supporters got around this ban by displaying his clasped hands from a famous picture. The leaders of the opposition Green movement, including former prime minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, who challenged the fraudulent result of the 2009 presidential election, are still under house arrest.

Tactical voting, rather than revolutionary fervour, seemed to be the guiding spirit of Iranian voters. The former regime insider Hashemi Rafsanjani, once seen as a corrupt oppressor of civil society, topped the vote for the Assembly of Experts. No doubt his newfound popularity was a means to keep the hardliners out, but it underlines the fluidity of Iranian politics. Without the discipline of formal parties, politicians drift between different currents and lists which makes the result of any election difficult to translate into a reliable assessment of the balance of power.

The labelling of politicians is even more difficult given that the centre of Iranian politics has shifted towards the conservative end since 2003. And the lens through which foreigners view Iran has also changed. By comparison with the harshness of the practice and rhetoric of ISIL and other Islamist factions, Iranian hardliners come to seem almost moderate.

None of that changes the reality of the Iranian system which is summed up by the analyst Karim Sadjadpour thus: “A limited democracy, wrapped in a military autocracy, inside a theocracy.” Voting allows the regime to display some flexibility, but the limits have hitherto been very clearly defined.

On that basis, Mr Rouhani will be wise not to bank on leading a popular movement to shake the foundations of the Islamic Republic. This is not his style in any case. His new thinking can be encapsulated in the idea that chanting “death to America” is a silly basis for the foreign policy of a country with a history going back several thousand years.

And as for the role of human rights in western policy, it has never stood up to the challenge of a real crisis, and the Syria conflict is causing it to decline on a daily basis. To reduce the level of violence, the United States has had to bow to the wishes of the autocratic Russia of Vladimir Putin. The European Union is entering into a legally suspect arrangement with the increasingly autocratic government of Turkey in order to stop the flow of migrants into Europe. Pragmatism is the order of the day, because the western countries’ ability to lead is ebbing away.

Ayatollah Yazdi may be worried about the smile on the face of America. The smile is actually a nervous grin.

Alan Philps is a commentator on global affairs

On Twitter @aphilps

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At a glance

Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.

 

Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year

 

Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month

 

Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30 

 

Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse

 

Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth

 

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Why does a queen bee feast only on royal jelly?

Some facts about bees:

The queen bee eats only royal jelly, an extraordinary food created by worker bees so she lives much longer

The life cycle of a worker bee is from 40-60 days

A queen bee lives for 3-5 years

This allows her to lay millions of eggs and allows the continuity of the bee colony

About 20,000 honey bees and one queen populate each hive

Honey is packed with vital vitamins, minerals, enzymes, water and anti-oxidants.

Apart from honey, five other products are royal jelly, the special food bees feed their queen 

Pollen is their protein source, a super food that is nutritious, rich in amino acids

Beewax is used to construct the combs. Due to its anti-fungal, anti-bacterial elements, it is used in skin treatments

Propolis, a resin-like material produced by bees is used to make hives. It has natural antibiotic qualities so works to sterilize hive,  protects from disease, keeps their home free from germs. Also used to treat sores, infection, warts

Bee venom is used by bees to protect themselves. Has anti-inflammatory properties, sometimes used to relieve conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis, nerve and muscle pain

Honey, royal jelly, pollen have health enhancing qualities

The other three products are used for therapeutic purposes

Is beekeeping dangerous?

As long as you deal with bees gently, you will be safe, says Mohammed Al Najeh, who has worked with bees since he was a boy.

“The biggest mistake people make is they panic when they see a bee. They are small but smart creatures. If you move your hand quickly to hit the bees, this is an aggressive action and bees will defend themselves. They can sense the adrenalin in our body. But if we are calm, they are move away.”

 

 

Kamindu Mendis bio

Full name: Pasqual Handi Kamindu Dilanka Mendis

Born: September 30, 1998

Age: 20 years and 26 days

Nationality: Sri Lankan

Major teams Sri Lanka's Under 19 team

Batting style: Left-hander

Bowling style: Right-arm off-spin and slow left-arm orthodox (that's right!)

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