The images coming out of Syria paint a very different picture of life after five years of war. In opposition-held areas, children are playing in the streets, relieved of the fear of attack by the regime’s barrel bombs or Russia’s more advanced weaponry. In regime-held parts of the city of Aleppo, families sit outside in the evening, enjoying the Eid holiday.
The US-Russian ceasefire agreement has dramatically reduced the level of violence. On Wednesday it was agreed to renew the ceasefire for a further 48 hours.
Despite these encouraging signs, it is hard to find anyone who thinks this respite is leading in short order to a workable peace process that ends with the departure of Bashar Al Assad and his dictatorship. According to US press reports, even John Kerry, the hyper-active secretary of state who has worked unstintingly to try to reduce the death and destruction in Syria, privately does not believe it has much chance.
In Washington, the doubts are expressed openly at the highest level about the success of a deal between two countries with contradictory goals in Syria at a time of rising distrust between them.
The White House has said there are reasons to be sceptical that the Russians, the foremost backer of the Assad regime, will implement the deal.
The Pentagon is even cooler: if the ceasefire holds for seven days, the US and Russian military are due to set up a “joint implementation centre” that will coordinate air attacks in Syria. The idea, from the US point of view, is to stop the Syrian air force from bombing civilians, and to prevent the Russians attacking US-supported “moderate” opposition groups on the pretext that they are terrorists from the Nusra Front, the local Al Qaeda outfit. This is an important strand of the opposition forces, though they have recently rebranded themselves and changed their name. It is excluded from the ceasefire.
The US military’s concerns are well-founded. They are relying on the Russians to ground the Syrian air force and to obey the spirit of the agreement themselves. But there is no stick to enforce compliance. A senior US official said that the only consequence of the ceasefire breaking down is that it will come to an end.
As for the Russians, the defence ministry is highlighting the doubts expressed by major rebel factions about the ceasefire, effectively preparing the ground to blame them for the failure of the agreement.
The rebels have many reasons to be dubious. Though the text of the agreement has not been released, they see it as too favourable to the regime, a thinly disguised step by the Obama administration towards bowing to Russia’s will in Syria. It will split rebel ranks, allowing the regime and its allies to crush the jihadist element and then pick off the “moderates”.
Their fears are confirmed by the delay in providing promised aid to rebel-held areas, a key element of the ceasefire.
A convoy of Turkish lorries is ready to head for eastern Aleppo, where 250,000 people live under government siege. But the regime has effectively rejected any convoys from Turkey, and has failed to secure the access road to allow supplies to go through. Clearly from the regime’s point of view, the “starve or kneel” strategy has worked and it is determined to pursue it.
All this raises the question of why Mr Kerry has devoted so much energy to this agreement. By character he is a man of principle – a decorated Vietnam War hero, in 1971 he campaigned against the war – and he believes he cannot sit on his hands and do nothing while hundreds of thousands of Syrians are killed. He is, of course, aware that his time in office is coming to an end, and he has to think of how history will see his legacy.
But there are solid policy reasons for his actions, even if they cannot be spoken out loud. If Mr Obama’s term is to be crowned by driving ISIL out of its Syrian base at Raqqa, the Americans and the Russians need to be on the same page, or at least reading from the same book. So far they have not been.
The United States sees ISIL as a threat to the homeland, and wants to focus on crushing it. The Russians want to preserve their primacy in Syria, an ally for decades, while relishing their ability to exploit the caution and confusion of the Obama White House.
Given American reluctance to get engaged deeply in Syria, there is no doubt that the Russians hold the keys to any peace settlement. With Vladimir Putin ready to flex his muscles and the Americans holding back, this contest can only go one way.
None of these diplomatic calculations mean that the ceasefire is meaningless. Saving lives is always good. And seeking to align the interests of Russia and the US is useful. It could ease the way for Moscow and Washington to work together at a later stage to rebuild Syria.
But that time has not come yet. Moscow is still in a mood to pocket American concessions. The US is paying the price for talking tough about removing Bashar Al Assad, while not daring to take action to achieve it.
Banking on the victory of “moderate” forces is rarely a winning strategy. Wars are usually won by the more determined side.
There will come a time when Russia no longer wants to be at war in Syria. While the regime forces appear to be winning, the reality is the army is constrained by a lack of manpower and is reliant on outside forces to supply some backbone, while the regime-held areas are infested with thuggery and corruption. Russia will not want to bear this burden forever.
This ceasefire agreement may be a sign of a start of a long process to end the war, but Russia has not yet become a genuine sponsor of a political transition in Damascus. That is still some way away.
Alan Philps is a commentator on global affairs
On Twitter @aphilps
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
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What is tokenisation?
Tokenisation refers to the issuance of a blockchain token, which represents a virtually tradable real, tangible asset. A tokenised asset is easily transferable, offers good liquidity, returns and is easily traded on the secondary markets.
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
Common OCD symptoms and how they manifest
Checking: the obsession or thoughts focus on some harm coming from things not being as they should, which usually centre around the theme of safety. For example, the obsession is “the building will burn down”, therefore the compulsion is checking that the oven is switched off.
Contamination: the obsession is focused on the presence of germs, dirt or harmful bacteria and how this will impact the person and/or their loved ones. For example, the obsession is “the floor is dirty; me and my family will get sick and die”, the compulsion is repetitive cleaning.
Orderliness: the obsession is a fear of sitting with uncomfortable feelings, or to prevent harm coming to oneself or others. Objectively there appears to be no logical link between the obsession and compulsion. For example,” I won’t feel right if the jars aren’t lined up” or “harm will come to my family if I don’t line up all the jars”, so the compulsion is therefore lining up the jars.
Intrusive thoughts: the intrusive thought is usually highly distressing and repetitive. Common examples may include thoughts of perpetrating violence towards others, harming others, or questions over one’s character or deeds, usually in conflict with the person’s true values. An example would be: “I think I might hurt my family”, which in turn leads to the compulsion of avoiding social gatherings.
Hoarding: the intrusive thought is the overvaluing of objects or possessions, while the compulsion is stashing or hoarding these items and refusing to let them go. For example, “this newspaper may come in useful one day”, therefore, the compulsion is hoarding newspapers instead of discarding them the next day.
Source: Dr Robert Chandler, clinical psychologist at Lighthouse Arabia
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Company%20Profile
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Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
Jigra
Starring: Alia Bhatt, Vedang Raina, Manoj Pahwa, Harsh Singh
A%20QUIET%20PLACE
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How to turn your property into a holiday home
- Ensure decoration and styling – and portal photography – quality is high to achieve maximum rates.
- Research equivalent Airbnb homes in your location to ensure competitiveness.
- Post on all relevant platforms to reach the widest audience; whether you let personally or via an agency know your potential guest profile – aiming for the wrong demographic may leave your property empty.
- Factor in costs when working out if holiday letting is beneficial. The annual DCTM fee runs from Dh370 for a one-bedroom flat to Dh1,200. Tourism tax is Dh10-15 per bedroom, per night.
- Check your management company has a physical office, a valid DTCM licence and is licencing your property and paying tourism taxes. For transparency, regularly view your booking calendar.
Company: Instabug
Founded: 2013
Based: Egypt, Cairo
Sector: IT
Employees: 100
Stage: Series A
Investors: Flat6Labs, Accel, Y Combinator and angel investors
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Thank You for Banking with Us
Director: Laila Abbas
Starring: Yasmine Al Massri, Clara Khoury, Kamel El Basha, Ashraf Barhoum
Rating: 4/5
In Praise of Zayed
A thousand grains of Sand whirl in the sky
To mark the journey of one passer-by
If then a Cavalcade disturbs the scene,
Shall such grains sing before they start to fly?
What man of Honour, and to Honour bred
Will fear to go wherever Truth has led?
For though a Thousand urge him to retreat
He'll laugh, until such counsellors have fled.
Stands always One, defiant and alone
Against the Many, when all Hope has flown.
Then comes the Test; and only then the time
Of reckoning what each can call his own.
History will not forget: that one small Seed
Sufficed to tip the Scales in time of need.
More than a debt, the Emirates owe to Zayed
Their very Souls, from outside influence freed.
No praise from Roderic can increase his Fame.
Steadfastness was the Essence of his name.
The changing years grow Gardens in the Sand
And build new Roads to Sand which stays the same.
But Hearts are not rebuilt, nor Seed resown.
What was, remains, essentially Alone.
Until the Golden Messenger, all-wise,
Calls out: "Come now, my Friend!" - and All is known
- Roderic Fenwick Owen
Awar Qalb
Director: Jamal Salem
Starring: Abdulla Zaid, Joma Ali, Neven Madi and Khadija Sleiman
Two stars
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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MATCH INFO
Inter Milan 2 (Vecino 65', Barella 83')
Verona 1 (Verre 19' pen)
Timeline
1947
Ferrari’s road-car company is formed and its first badged car, the 125 S, rolls off the assembly line
1962
250 GTO is unveiled
1969
Fiat becomes a Ferrari shareholder, acquiring 50 per cent of the company
1972
The Fiorano circuit, Ferrari’s racetrack for development and testing, opens
1976
First automatic Ferrari, the 400 Automatic, is made
1987
F40 launched
1988
Enzo Ferrari dies; Fiat expands its stake in the company to 90 per cent
2002
The Enzo model is announced
2010
Ferrari World opens in Abu Dhabi
2011
First four-wheel drive Ferrari, the FF, is unveiled
2013
LaFerrari, the first Ferrari hybrid, arrives
2014
Fiat Chrysler announces the split of Ferrari from the parent company
2015
Ferrari launches on Wall Street
2017
812 Superfast unveiled; Ferrari celebrates its 70th anniversary
Tree of Hell
Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla
Director: Raed Zeno
Rating: 4/5