Will Syria's millions of refugees ever go home? As the civil war crawls into its seventh year, nobody, not the politicians around the world searching for a resolution, not the rebels on the ground, and certainly not the people of Syria, can have much hope that it will end soon.
The Syrian war remains the world's worst humanitarian crisis, a war that has raged longer than the Second World War. Even those tasked with bringing it to an end are losing hope. This week Carla del Ponte, one of the investigators on the UN's commission of inquiry on Syria, said she would quit because there was no political will from the Security Council. “We are powerless,” she told a film festival in Switzerland. “There is no justice for Syria.”
Worst of all, the refugees themselves are beginning to lose hope. Last week, a poll released as part of the Middle East-wide Arab Youth Survey found that more than half of young Syrian refugees believe they are unlikely to return home permanently. The survey that covered refugees in Jordan and Lebanon found that a majority (54 per cent) in the two countries believed they would never return home.
Those sentiments should jolt policymakers, in the region and beyond, out of a political stupor that has assumed for too many years that the Syrian war can be contained. The truth is, the war was always destined to be too big for Syria’s borders and to engulf the region, as it has done. The refugee crisis also is too big for one country or one region. If Syria’s refugees can’t go home and can’t live elsewhere – if they continue to exist in limbo – the repercussions in the Middle East and Europe will be as big as the war itself.
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More from the author:
Syria is collapsing – and could take Turkey and Europe with it
The death of Sadiq Al Azm deprives Syria of one of its most persuasive anti-Assad voices
Michel Aoun’s real obstacle is not Syria or Israel, but Lebanon itself
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The way the current political map of the Middle East and Europe is set up, the idea that Syria's refugees will never go home is impossible to imagine. The political settlement as it exists now is simply not able to deal with a crisis on this scale. Syria’s refugee population is the size of many countries: six million displaced within the country and at least five million outside of it, mainly in four Middle Eastern countries, Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq. If those five million – a population the same size as Denmark – cannot go home, it is difficult to see where else they can go.
That doesn't mean it is physically impossible. Depending on how you count the populations of Europe and the Middle East, there are around three-fourth of a billion people in dozens of countries. It is perfectly possible to resettle five million people. But politically it is impossible; the logistics of doing so in a world of hard borders, of religious divides, of still-simmering conflicts in both regions, of hardening political attitudes, of uneven economic development, and a lack of political imagination mean that, if Syria’s refugees don’t go home, they will probably sit in limbo for some years.
That would be the worst of all outcomes. The Middle East has already suffered half a century of uncertainty and conflict because of the failure to find a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Palestinian refugees already number more than six million worldwide, with many millions across the Middle East – many in the same countries that are now hosting Syrians. Another half century of Syrians as refugees in the region should fill the Middle East with horror. Because there are few things worse than a population stuck in limbo.
So many young men and women would, of course, be easy prey for extreme ideologies. But more than that, a system that allowed so many millions to languish without a solution would, de facto, be a broken system. Neither the Middle East nor Europe, both already facing severe crises to their territorial integrity, can afford another crisis on the scale of the Palestinian one. The loss of so many millions of life chances would be a testament of failure.
Is there an answer? The Syrian refugee crisis should – and may still – provoke a fundamental rethink of how borders and nations operate in the 21st century. The crisis may yet bring about innovative change in the way that individuals can move around the world. At the same time, the severity of the crisis ought to promote new ways of thinking about the Syrian civil war and its aftermath. Syrian refugees are already thinking things once considered unthinkable; the rest of us may have to follow.
Asked what was the most critical factor that would allow them to return home, the refugees surveyed said, overwhelmingly (47 per cent), that the war had to end. ISIL leaving Syria was a distant second (25 per cent), and the long-standing demand of the international community, that Bashar Al Assad step aside, was practically an afterthought, at seven per cent.
The fact is the Assad regime is winning the war. Mainly because the West and the Middle East failed to act swiftly or decisively enough, the only group that is capable of steering Syria towards a stalemate is the regime. The decision three weeks ago by the White House to end CIA support to the Syrian rebels was a declaration of defeat. The US under Barack Obama was unwilling to wage a real battle for Damascus; under Donald Trump, that unwillingness has become a surrender.
There now seems no plausible way for regime change in Syria to happen. Bashar Al Assad will remain in power for the foreseeable future. That will mean, almost inevitably, a long-term insurgency, expanded support for terror groups and expanded power and prestige for Russia, Iran and Hizbollah. What some Syrians appear to be saying is that these outcomes may be better than millions of people living in limbo. That is a hard message to hear after all these years, but it is a message worth listening to.
What Syria's refugees appear to be saying is that, absent any alternative, they would rather go home to a country ruled by Bashar Al Assad. The world is, in any case, sleepwalking to that reality.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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WHAT ARE NFTs?
Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are tokens that represent ownership of unique items. They allow the tokenisation of things such as art, collectibles and even real estate.
An NFT can have only one official owner at one time. And since they're minted and secured on the Ethereum blockchain, no one can modify the record of ownership, not even copy-paste it into a new one.
This means NFTs are not interchangeable and cannot be exchanged with other items. In contrast, fungible items, such as fiat currencies, can be exchanged because their value defines them rather than their unique properties.
PROVISIONAL FIXTURE LIST
Premier League
Wednesday, June 17 (Kick-offs uae times) Aston Villa v Sheffield United 9pm; Manchester City v Arsenal 11pm
Friday, June 19 Norwich v Southampton 9pm; Tottenham v Manchester United 11pm
Saturday, June 20 Watford v Leicester 3.30pm; Brighton v Arsenal 6pm; West Ham v Wolves 8.30pm; Bournemouth v Crystal Palace 10.45pm
Sunday, June 21 Newcastle v Sheffield United 2pm; Aston Villa v Chelsea 7.30pm; Everton v Liverpool 10pm
Monday, June 22 Manchester City v Burnley 11pm (Sky)
Tuesday, June 23 Southampton v Arsenal 9pm; Tottenham v West Ham 11.15pm
Wednesday, June 24 Manchester United v Sheffield United 9pm; Newcastle v Aston Villa 9pm; Norwich v Everton 9pm; Liverpool v Crystal Palace 11.15pm
Thursday, June 25 Burnley v Watford 9pm; Leicester v Brighton 9pm; Chelsea v Manchester City 11.15pm; Wolves v Bournemouth 11.15pm
Sunday June 28 Aston Villa vs Wolves 3pm; Watford vs Southampton 7.30pm
Monday June 29 Crystal Palace vs Burnley 11pm
Tuesday June 30 Brighton vs Manchester United 9pm; Sheffield United vs Tottenham 11.15pm
Wednesday July 1 Bournemouth vs Newcastle 9pm; Everton vs Leicester 9pm; West Ham vs Chelsea 11.15pm
Thursday July 2 Arsenal vs Norwich 9pm; Manchester City vs Liverpool 11.15pm
Martin Sabbagh profile
Job: CEO JCDecaux Middle East
In the role: Since January 2015
Lives: In the UAE
Background: M&A, investment banking
Studied: Corporate finance
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, semi-final result:
Liverpool 4-0 Barcelona
Liverpool win 4-3 on aggregate
Champions Legaue final: June 1, Madrid
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BIRD%20BOX%20BARCELONA
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Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
more from Janine di Giovanni
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Company%20Profile
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Simran
Director Hansal Mehta
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Soham Shah, Esha Tiwari Pandey
Three stars
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
India squads
T20: Rohit Sharma (c), Shikhar Dhawan, KL Rahul, Sanju Samson, Shreyas Iyer, Manish Pandey, Rishabh Pant, Washington Sundar, Krunal Pandya, Yuzvendra Chahal, Rahul Chahar, Deepak Chahar, Khaleel Ahmed, Shivam Dube, Shardul Thakur
Test: Virat Kohli (c), Rohit Sharma, Mayank Agarwal, Cheteshwar Pujara, Ajinkya Rahane, Hanuma Vihari, Wriddhiman Saha (wk), Ravindra Jadeja, Ravichandran Ashwin, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Shami, Umesh Yadav, Ishant Sharma, Shubman Gill, Rishabh Pant
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
UAE%20Warriors%2045%20Results
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More coverage from the Future Forum
Genesis G80 2020 5.0-litre Royal Specs
Engine: 5-litre V8
Gearbox: eight-speed automatic
Power: 420hp
Torque: 505Nm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.4L/100km
Price: Dh260,500
Read more about the coronavirus
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
Walls
Louis Tomlinson
3 out of 5 stars
(Syco Music/Arista Records)
UAE%20SQUAD
%3Cp%3EMuhammad%20Waseem%20(captain)%2C%20Aayan%20Khan%2C%20Aryan%20Lakra%2C%20Ashwanth%20Valthapa%2C%20Asif%20Khan%2C%20Aryansh%20Sharma%2C%20CP%20Rizwaan%2C%20Hazrat%20Billal%2C%20Junaid%20Siddique%2C%20Karthik%20Meiyappan%2C%20Rohan%20Mustafa%2C%20Vriitya%20Aravind%2C%20Zahoor%20Khan%20and%20Zawar%20Farid.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The%20Caine%20Mutiny%20Court-Martial%20
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Nepotism is the name of the game
Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
PROFILE OF INVYGO
Started: 2018
Founders: Eslam Hussein and Pulkit Ganjoo
Based: Dubai
Sector: Transport
Size: 9 employees
Investment: $1,275,000
Investors: Class 5 Global, Equitrust, Gulf Islamic Investments, Kairos K50 and William Zeqiri
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Banthology: Stories from Unwanted Nations
Edited by Sarah Cleave, Comma Press
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills