Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.  Etienne Oliveau / EPA
Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Etienne Oliveau / EPA

Israel’s attack on Syria reveals new fault lines



geopolitics

Last Friday, Israeli bombers flew into Syria to attack a weapons store belonging to the Iranian-supplied Hizbollah militia near the desert town of Palmyra. At one level, this is nothing new – the Israelis have repeatedly bombed what they describe as convoys of arms such as rockets heading for Lebanon, which could change the balance of forces on the Lebanese border.

However, the reaction of the Syrian and Russian governments to this raid has been anything but routine, indicating that a new and more complex stage of the war has begun, one that may test the Kremlin’s diplomatic skills to the limit as it tries to create the conditions for a permanent ceasefire.

In this case, the Syrians responded to the attack by launching anti-aircraft missiles that strayed into Israeli territory, provoking a response from Israel’s anti-missile shield. Then the Israeli ambassador to Moscow was summoned to the Russian foreign ministry to explain the raid.

This is a bizarre diplomatic response since the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, have remained in close contact to avoid clashes between the two countries’ air forces and navies. What the Israelis have been doing to contain Hizbollah is certainly no secret to the Russians.

How then to explain this sudden tension between Russia and Israel? First, the launching of the anti-aircraft missiles is a clear sign of renewed confidence by the Syrian regime. (The missiles were apparently ancient SA-5s, not the far more sophisticated air defence system that Russia has installed in Syria to protect its own installations.)

Since the retaking of Aleppo in December, Bashar Al Assad seems to believe he is a victorious warrior statesman. Of course, it was Russia and Iran and its allied militias including Hizbollah that provided the air power and the foot soldiers to turn the tide of battle. Without them, the Al Assad family might already be in exile.

The second trend is that Iran, far from packing its bags and leaving Syria, seems to be settling in for the long haul. In recompense for the money and blood it has spent in the war, it wants a port on the Mediterranean, reviving memories of an imperial power play dating back to the ancient empire.

Of even greater concern to the Israelis is their fear that Hizbollah will be allowed to open a second front along the occupied Golan Heights, Syrian territory seized by Israel in 1967. This would turn Israel’s border with Syria, which the Assad family has kept quiet for more than three decades, into a war zone.

The decline in war fighting in Syria has changed the Israeli calculus. Hitherto Israel has been happy to watch Hizbollah losing men and credibility at home and in the wider Muslim world for engaging in an inter-Arab war rather than directing its firepower at Israel.

It is true that its halo is tarnished, but the result of the war may end up raising Hizbollah’s profile as the one force able to inflict damage on Israel.

These Israeli fears have led the defence minister, Avigdor Lieberman, to threaten to wipe out any Syria anti-aircraft battery that fires on intruding Israeli bombers. The same concerns are shared by Washington, which had made it clear that it sees the basis of a Syrian peace deal as the departure of Iran and its proxies from Syria. In the words of Nikki Haley, the United States ambassador to the United Nations, “We've got to make sure that, as we move forward, we're securing the borders for our allies as well.”

All this adds up to a diplomatic conundrum for Russia as it attempts to secure a permanent ceasefire in Syria. Neither Moscow, nor the Al Assad regime, has any interest in allowing Hizbollah to establish itself on the Golan border, not least because Iran’s tried and tested practice of manipulating its proxy militias will get in the way of the Russian policy of strengthening the Syrian state and its army, both of which came close to collapse.

But the Syrian regime, which has been dependent on Iran for money and oil as well as fighting men, is in no position to say no to Iranian demands. Nor can the Russians. Their profile in the Middle East may have risen to new heights as a result of US disinterest, but they know full well that they do not have the money or military capacity to take sole responsibility for remaking the region.

Russia is committed to Israeli security but the word coming out of Moscow is that Israeli concerns will not prevent the formation of a “united antiterrorism front” against ISIL, which still has its headquarters in the city of Raqqa, in north-east Syria. Such a “united front” would inevitably include Iran and the Shia Muslim militias it has assembled from Iraq and Afghanistan.

Moscow likes to accuse the Americans of hypocrisy in its concern over Iranian influence in Syria. Commentators point to the battle to drive out ISIL from the Iraqi city of Mosul, where the US military and air power are in open alliance with Iran and its militias.

Why is it right, they ask, for America to use Iran to crush ISIL in Iraq and wrong for Russia to do the same in Syria? Part of the answer is that America, for all its sins, is not propping up an unrepresentative, murderous government guilty of huge war crimes, while Russia is doing exactly that.

How Russia intends to resolve the issue of Iran in Syria is not yet known. What is clear is that Russia is feeling pressure over its alliance with Iran, and is not inclined to give in. In the words of the Russian commentator Dmitry Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Centre, “it is totally unrealistic to hope that Russia will throw Iran under the bus for the sake of a rapprochement with the Trump administration or even better ties with Israel”.

Alan Philps is a commentator on global affairs

On Twitter: @aphilps

Company%20Profile
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Airev
Started: September 2023
Founder: Muhammad Khalid
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: Generative AI
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Core42
Current number of staff: 47
 
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'Skin'

Dir: Guy Nattiv

Starring: Jamie Bell, Danielle McDonald, Bill Camp, Vera Farmiga

Rating: 3.5/5 stars

The specs: 2018 Dodge Durango SRT

Price, base / as tested: Dh259,000

Engine: 6.4-litre V8

Power: 475hp @ 6,000rpm

Torque: 640Nm @ 4,300rpm

Transmission: Eight-speed automatic

Fuel consumption, combined: 7.7L / 100km

Why it pays to compare

A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.

Route 1: bank transfer

The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.

Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount

Total received: €4,670.30 

Route 2: online platform

The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.

Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction

Total received: €4,756

The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.

The specs
 
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
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If you go

The flights
There are various ways of getting to the southern Serengeti in Tanzania from the UAE. The exact route and airstrip depends on your overall trip itinerary and which camp you’re staying at. 
Flydubai flies direct from Dubai to Kilimanjaro International Airport from Dh1,350 return, including taxes; this can be followed by a short flight from Kilimanjaro to the Serengeti with Coastal Aviation from about US$700 (Dh2,500) return, including taxes. Kenya Airways, Emirates and Etihad offer flights via Nairobi or Dar es Salaam.   

Types of fraud

Phishing: Fraudsters send an unsolicited email that appears to be from a financial institution or online retailer. The hoax email requests that you provide sensitive information, often by clicking on to a link leading to a fake website.

Smishing: The SMS equivalent of phishing. Fraudsters falsify the telephone number through “text spoofing,” so that it appears to be a genuine text from the bank.

Vishing: The telephone equivalent of phishing and smishing. Fraudsters may pose as bank staff, police or government officials. They may persuade the consumer to transfer money or divulge personal information.

SIM swap: Fraudsters duplicate the SIM of your mobile number without your knowledge or authorisation, allowing them to conduct financial transactions with your bank.

Identity theft: Someone illegally obtains your confidential information, through various ways, such as theft of your wallet, bank and utility bill statements, computer intrusion and social networks.

Prize scams: Fraudsters claiming to be authorised representatives from well-known organisations (such as Etisalat, du, Dubai Shopping Festival, Expo2020, Lulu Hypermarket etc) contact victims to tell them they have won a cash prize and request them to share confidential banking details to transfer the prize money.

* Nada El Sawy

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How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

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The specs

Engine: 5.0-litre V8

Power: 480hp at 7,250rpm

Torque: 566Nm at 4,600rpm

Transmission: 10-speed auto

Fuel consumption: L/100km

Price: Dh306,495

On sale: now

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
 
Started: 2020
 
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
 
Based: Dubai, UAE
 
Sector: Entertainment 
 
Number of staff: 210 
 
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: ARDH Collective
Based: Dubai
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Sector: Sustainability
Total funding: Self funded
Number of employees: 4