ISIL is visibly running out of steam and ideas

The Islamist groups's latest execution video was more than an act of triumph; it was a sign of desperation, says HA Hellyer.

An image grab taken from a propaganda video released on November 16, 2014 by al-Furqan Media allegedly shows members of the Islamic State jihadist group preparing the simultaneous beheadings of at leaShow more

Last week, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) released a new video of horrific brutality. It was meant to display the group’s prowess and show off its power. In reality, it probably indicates that the group is not getting any stronger but weaker by the day.

ISIL took the world’s media by storm earlier this year when it started taking huge swathes of territory. Few should have been surprised. Several Syria analysts warned this was a possibility, but once it became a fact, ISIL found itself the pre-eminent terrorist group in the world. And it revelled in it. The more the world’s press regards ISIL as infamous, the more they are likely to report it.

Meanwhile, the international community’s somewhat inadequate efforts rumble on. Though the coalition has failed to recognise that ISIL’s defeat and that of the Assad regime are inextricably connected, it has managed to force the radical Islamist group back. It is not defeated – not by a long shot – but territorially, it is not gaining ground, and over the last few months, it has suffered losses.

Until recently, ISIL’s message was one of expansion. Indeed, the video itself, which provided a short history of the group, promoted that narrative. It was an obvious propaganda film, taking liberty with the facts, which include the reality that ISIL started small, grew substantially over time and has peaked.

Recruitment for ISIL is predicated on that message. Unlike Al Qaeda, which historically was about particular terrorist operations, ISIL is not simply about attacks or manoeuvres. Rather, it is about the spreading of its authority, territ­orially.

This characteristic makes it very different from Al Qaeda. There is territory under ISIL control that recruits can go to, not just to engage in training for militant acts or to carry them out, but to live with friends and families, under the authority of what they consider to be an “Islamic State”, a territory that has been won, and which, till recently, was growing. It’s a powerful narrative and thus far has attracted many to its ranks from within the region, and worldwide.

Last week’s gruesome video, which showed not one but many killings – that too in a very explicit manner – helps the cause. Its recruitment value cannot be underestimated and it is bound to attract sympathisers from outside Iraq and Syria.

Add to all of this the recognition accorded by ISIL to other groups. Bringing them into the fold gives the impression that ISIL is expanding dramatically. This is, of course, rather misleading, there being nowhere outside of Iraq and Syria that ISIL supporters have claim to contiguous territory. Ansar Bayt Al Maqdis in Egypt’s Sinai peninsula, for example, is the typical insurgency group, ideologically aligned with ISIL, but in practice, following a typical terrorist model, similar to Al Qaeda in terms of geographical control.

ISIL’s recognition of groups in Egypt, Libya, Algeria, Saudi Arabia and Tunisia helps it make a specific argument to prospective recruits in each country.

They can join the group and be part of its long, proud tale, so the argument goes, as it remains in ascendancy over its enemies.The reality may be very different – but then propaganda is seldom faithful to the facts.

But using the video is only part of ISIL’s psychological appeal to new recruits. Recently, it declared that it would mint its own currency, one of gold dinars and silver dirhams.

It claimed this would help restore the traditional Muslim economy, which was historically based on the gold standard. Again, no terrorist organisation has ever been able to do this – or has even expressed interest in it.

The fact that ISIL announced such an action is poignant. Yet again, it reinforces to prospective recruits that ISIL is the “real deal”, that it is able to govern. The notion of having its own currency is especially powerful.

The dollar is routinely used even in anti-Western countries. To be able to declare that the economy of the “Islamic State”is truly independent is a symbolic victory.

But only, of course, a symbolic one because the nature of the international economic order has meant that for a hundred years at least, there has been no way to establish a purely national system.

The world today is too interdependent as ISIL will quickly discover if it tries to put these coins into circulation. ISIL is not disappearing from the international stage any time soon.

But that video was more than an act of triumph. It was a sign of desperation. ISIL cannot point to more mundane evidence of victory because there isn’t any. It may still get recruits but it is running out of rabbits to pull out of its hat.

Dr HA Hellyer is an associate fellow of the Royal United Services Institute in London, and the Centre for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC

On Twitter: @hahellyer