Has Iran gamed the NPT to use its nuclear development to break out of international isolation? Joe Klamar / AP
Has Iran gamed the NPT to use its nuclear development to break out of international isolation? Joe Klamar / AP

How Iran set its own place at the world’s top table



Israel and its allies in the United States Congress berate the Iran nuclear agreement that went into effect last week as a dangerous capitulation. The Obama administration and its supporters brag that the deal has tamed a rogue regime and eliminated an even greater peril. But historians studying the issue many years from now will recognise that the Islamic Republic’s nuclear programme was a remarkable strategic success: Iran has effectively banked the strategic benefits of a bomb it never built.

By demonstrably acquiring the means to build a nuclear deterrent – while refraining from actually doing so, and remaining party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) – Tehran won a place at the negotiating table with the world’s major powers, where it was treated with the respect its leadership has long craved and where its regime became party to an important international treaty. The nuclear diplomacy has effectively taken any fantasies among Iran’s foes of regime-change by invasion off the table – an achievement that had been a primary goal in Iran’s nuclear decision-making according to the US National Intelligence Estimate.

While American and Israeli hawks claimed that Iran sought nuclear weapons to destroy Israel and trigger an apocalyptic war, the intelligence community in both countries saw Iran’s strategic motivation as in line with those of all other states that have sought nuclear weapons. Since the US first used atom bombs against the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki to force Japan’s surrender in 1945, other states have typically developed their own nuclear deterrents in response to the capabilities of their enemies, in order to guarantee their survival, security and strategic independence.

For Moscow, a nuclear deterrent was essential to prevent Soviet cities being obliterated without consequence in the event of a conflict with the US. For US-allied Britain and France and for Soviet-aligned China, the goal was simply strategic independence.

In the late 1960s, the international community tried to halt this escalating nuclear proliferation via the NPT – a global treaty that sought to prevent further proliferation by guaranteeing civilian nuclear technology to signatories under intrusive inspections and strict controls to prevent weaponisation, while obliging the (then) five established nuclear-weapons states to negotiate their way to complete disarmament.

But four other states – India, Pakistan, Israel and South Africa – were already well on their way to acquiring the bomb, and declined to join the NPT. (South Africa eventually signed the treaty and destroyed its nuclear weapons once the transition from white minority rule was under way; North Korea later withdrew from the NPT in order to build and test nuclear weapons.) Each of those states saw acquiring a nuclear deterrent as key to their own survival, and so the cycle continued.

Iran’s research into nuclear weapons began in the late 1980s, in response to the nuclear efforts of Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, which fought an eight-year war with the Islamic Republic. When the 2003 US invasion of Iraq eliminated Tehran’s most dangerous enemy, Iran’s research into building nuclear weapons was halted.

But Iran continued to steadily acquire key technologies necessary to build a bomb, particularly the ability to enrich uranium. Here, Iran was exploiting the ambiguity of the NPT, which permits member states to build the full fuel-cycle of a nuclear energy programme that effectively gives them “breakout capacity” or “nuclear threshold” status. And it was by moving steadily towards that threshold while staying within the parameters of the NPT that Iran forced the western powers to engage with its regime on an equal footing. This ended the diplomatic isolation that began with the 1979 revolution and saw Tehran regarded as a rogue regime, subject to sanctions and branded a state sponsor of terrorism. The possibility of an Iranian nuclear deterrent prompted the West to opt to reintegrate Iran into the international system.

For all the self-righteous posturing about nuclear threats, that international system continues to be based on the elite of nations that possess nuclear weapons calling the shots. India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea have been able to defy or ignore the international consensus, in no small part because they hold a golden ticket to the top table where the rules are set.

Has Iran gamed the NPT to use its nuclear development to break out of international isolation? Of course it has. But so have the major powers that called it to account. The US, Russia, China, France and Britain have never paid more than lip service to the NPT’s article VI, which obliges them to negotiate their way to “general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control”.

President Barack Obama has committed the US to a trillion-dollar upgrade of its nuclear arsenal and the Russians are developing new delivery systems for their warheads. Iran simply played by the unwritten rule of post-Second World War geopolitics in which nuclear weapons have been the price of admission to the top table. Iran’s real innovation was getting to the table with a forged ticket, because its nuclear deterrent was never built.

Tony Karon teaches in the graduate programme at the New School in New York

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Under the UK government’s proposals, migrants will have to spend 10 years in the UK before being able to apply for citizenship.

Skilled worker visas will require a university degree, and there will be tighter restrictions on recruitment for jobs with skills shortages.

But what are described as "high-contributing" individuals such as doctors and nurses could be fast-tracked through the system.

Language requirements will be increased for all immigration routes to ensure a higher level of English.

Rules will also be laid out for adult dependants, meaning they will have to demonstrate a basic understanding of the language.

The plans also call for stricter tests for colleges and universities offering places to foreign students and a reduction in the time graduates can remain in the UK after their studies from two years to 18 months.

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COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3ECompany%20name%3A%20CarbonSifr%3Cbr%3EStarted%3A%202022%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20Dubai%3Cbr%3EFounders%3A%20Onur%20Elgun%2C%20Mustafa%20Bosca%20and%20Muhammed%20Yildirim%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20Climate%20tech%3Cbr%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%241%20million%20raised%20in%20seed%20funding%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
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Sarfraz (c), Zaman, Imam, Masood, Azam, Malik, Asif, Sohail, Shadab, Nawaz, Ashraf, Hasan, Amir, Junaid, Shinwari and Afridi

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Genes in Space is an annual competition first launched by the UAE Space Agency, The National and Boeing in 2015.

It challenges school pupils to design experiments to be conducted in space and it aims to encourage future talent for the UAE’s fledgling space industry. It is the first of its kind in the UAE and, as well as encouraging talent, it also aims to raise interest and awareness among the general population about space exploration. 

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