Just three years ago, Libya’s prospects seemed bright. It was finally free of the corrosive 42-year rule of Muammar Qaddafi, who effectively relinquished power when Tripoli fell in August and was holed up in his stronghold of Sirte. He was soon to be captured then summarily killed on October 20, 2011, finally quashing fears that he might once against wrest power from the people.
Of all the Arab Spring countries, Libya seemed the most likely to make the difficult transition from revolution to stability then democracy and prosperity. It was blessed with natural resources, had one of Africa’s best-educated populaces and a large diaspora. With Qaddafi gone, the theory went, these expatriate Libyans would return and help rebuild the country.
Three years on, such predictions seem outlandishly optimistic. Nothing exemplifies this more than the hopes now pinned on Khalifa Haftar, the Libyan general leading the fight against Islamist militias for control of Benghazi. For ordinary Libyans to now be pinning their hopes on an archetypal “strong man” to bring stability back to the country shows just how dire the situation has become.
Unlike other countries in the region, Libya’s descent into chaos came despite having a path towards democracy and rule of law, not in the absence of one. The failure has been one of implementation, and in particular the inability to convince a critical mass of the battle-hardened and well-equipped militias not to fight for their own advantage. Repeated bids to entice the militias back into the fold since then have all failed.
The importance to the region of Libya returning to stability is underscored by Egyptian warplanes bombing Islamist positions in Benghazi and the Libyan army backing Gen Haftar's campaign. If, as seems increasingly likely, he can succeed in gaining control, the break from incessant fighting can only be a good thing in the short term. Libya is in classic need of a strong and preferably benevolent leader to put it back on course – ordinary Libyans can only hope that Gen Haftar can fulfil these hopes.
