Iraqi boys stand over the rubble of the grave of a Sufi cleric in Mosul. Members of ISIL have demolished dozens of  Sufi sites. EPA
Iraqi boys stand over the rubble of the grave of a Sufi cleric in Mosul. Members of ISIL have demolished dozens of Sufi sites. EPA

Even after defeat, ISIL’s influence will remain strong



The extent to which communities in Syria and Iraq that have fallen under ISIL’s influence have changed since the group took control might take a generation to fully comprehend. In much of the expanse that ISIL has controlled or still holds, social change was historically slow due to their remoteness from centres of power. Whether under the Ottomans or the Baathists, whether they practised Salafism or Islamism, change in these hinterland areas was mostly limited and scattered.

When ISIL came, it emphasised managing all aspects of people’s lives. It brought with it a radical project to erase and eradicate social bonds and religious norms.

Will Sufism, for example, survive the vicious systematic campaign by ISIL to uproot it?

Historically, Sufi orders prevailed in the region that stretches from Fallujah to the Iraqi and Syrian Kurdish areas all the way to Aleppo. Much of this expanse subscribes to the Naqashbani Sufi order, followed by the Qaderiyah order. Despite the social conservatism prevalent in these areas, attempts over the past century to spread Salafism there largely failed.

For ISIL, which represents the opposite extreme of the spectrum, to have followers in this region – or at least people it has been able to control it with relative ease – should be regarded as damning evidence that the governments that formally ruled these areas have done a bad job.

Sufis have been at the forefront of ISIL’s targets. Sufi imams at mosques were replaced by clerics who preach anti-Sufi messages. Sufi shrines were quickly destroyed in every village or town controlled by ISIL. Some Sufi clerics were punished or killed after the militants accused them of practising sorcery. The majority of Sufis in the region either fled or converted to ISIL’s religious doctrine.

The Kurdish Al Khaznawi family follows a Sufi order in northeastern Syria. Before ISIL ruled the area, thousands of people would travel from across eastern Syria to embrace the order.

“Sufism stands to the opposite of ISIL,” said Dr Murshid Al Khaznawi, a Kurdish political leader. “In its emotional and religious teachings, Sufism emphasises that Wahhabism, or Salafism, moves away from spirituality and expressing love to the Prophet and saints. Sufi clerics played on this factor for a long time.”

He said Sufi teachings safeguarded many people from embracing ISIL. Among the Kurds, he said, another segment of society had gravitated towards secular political parties that kept young people away from “religious debates” altogether. When ISIL took control of the area, however, a large number of people joined it.

“I remember, for example, when ISIL attacked Tal Marouf, burnt the mosque and destroyed the Khaznawi shrines. Many of those who were present at these scenes were surprised to see some old disciples of the Khaznawi sheikhs. When they came with ISIL, they were familiar with the little details, the streets and the houses.”

Mr Al Khaznawi cites two reasons for people turning against the Sufi clergy. First, the clerics did not support the peaceful movement against the Syrian regime in 2011. As with the tribal chiefs, they stood by president Bashar Al Assad. Also, many clerics did not show leadership at that time and instead looked after their own interests.

So, the collapse of Sufi clerical authority in the public eye added to the problems caused by the systematic war that ISIL waged against Sufism and Sufi teachings in the region.

The organised effort by ISIL to indoctrinate the population living under its control against Sufism might have a lasting effect even if people do not fully embrace the new ideology.

Takfiri (excommunication) concepts began to gain traction elsewhere in Syria, even where ISIL does not have a presence. Such a trend might include suspicion against practices some extremists deem to be ­un-Islamic, such as the building of shrines for religious saints or even celebrating the birthday of the Prophet Mohammed. There are already indications that at least some “awareness” of such practices has been created as a result of the rise of extremist forces in the country.

Even when ISIL is dismantled, communities that it ruled will have deep bruises to deal with for many years to come. In addition to the broken ties and the psychological scars, it is worth considering the cultural and religious transformation that this region may have experienced over more than two years.

The public demise of Sufism in that region, for now, is one example of many unexplored effects of ISIL’s rule. It is possible that Sufism will once again thrive after the defeat of ISIL. But the odds are that some aspects of ISIL’s cleansing campaign will survive its defeat.

Hassan Hassan is a resident fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy and co-author of ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror

On Twitter: @hxhassan

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

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The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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