The May deadline for the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan looms large over Washington. But it looms much larger over Kabul.
The US's intervention in the country, launched nearly 20 years ago, began as a mission to oust the Taliban and became a project to secure and stabilise the country. But today Afghanistan is neither secure nor stable, and the Taliban is as pervasive as ever.
A round of peace talks that began last September were meant to set the stage for real progress. They started an agreement in Doha, in which the Taliban consented to the talks and in exchange for the scheduled US withdrawal. But after five months of deliberations in plush Doha hotels, the talks have gone nowhere. A two-week recess was called in December, but has not really ended. The Taliban blames its dithering on the newly inaugurated administration of US President Joe Biden, indicating that it is waiting to see how the American approach to the talks may change.
Mr Biden has indicated that he will consider keeping US troops in Afghanistan a while longer. This is partly because the Taliban, according to the most recent report by the US's special inspector general for Afghanistan, has not met the deal's other two conditions: a commitment to reducing violence and a total end to the group's relationship with terrorist organisations.
Instead of returning to talks, senior Taliban operatives spent last week in the Iranian capital, Tehran. The Taliban, who before the US intervention were in a state of near-open warfare with Tehran, have recently begun ingratiating themselves, reportedly receiving money and even weapons from Iranian sources. This has been a point of concern for Kabul, which has long maintained a cautious, but friendly relationship with Tehran.
For Iran, which has already successfully implanted itself as a powerful wirepuller in its other large neighbour Iraq, Afghanistan could be fertile ground in which to extend its hegemony eastward. Even as they kept their Taliban guests from the negotiating table, Iranian officials assured them that they were better poised to mediate with Kabul than Washington.
An Afghan National Army soldier during an operation in Arghandab district of Kandahar Province on February 3, 2021. AFP
Afghan security forces patrol on the outskirts of Helmand, on January 17, 2021. Violence has surged across the country in recent weeks, despite the Afghan government and the Taliban committing to reduce their attacks. EPA
Afghan security officials present arrested members of the Taliban, in Herat, Afghanistan, on February 2, 2021. EPA
Afghan security officials present weapons confiscated from arrested members of the Taliban, in Herat, Afghanistan, on February 2, 2021. EPA
Hazara militia fighters stand inside their base ahead of a patrol against Taliban insurgents in Wardak Province, Afghanistan, on January 9, 2021. Comprising roughly 10 to 20 percent of Afghanistan's 38-million population, Hazaras have long been persecuted by the Taliban. AFP
Hazara militia fighters patrol against Taliban insurgents in Wardak Province, Afghanistan, on January 9, 2021. Comprising roughly 10 to 20 percent of Afghanistan's 38-million population, Hazaras have long been persecuted by the Taliban. AFP
Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, second right, meets with a Taliban delegation in Tehran, Iran on January 31, 2021. Tasnim News Agency
With resurging violence, continued safe haven for terrorists in Taliban areas and a total lack of appetite from the Taliban for peace talks, it is difficult to see any progress since the original deal was signed last February. The Taliban’s flirtations with Tehran will also put Washington in a state of alarm. In trying to bide its time to gain the upper hand, the Taliban has rendered the deal useless and probably precipitated a prolonging of the US intervention it means to end.
But if there was ever a time to sue for peace, it is now. Afghanistan had a particularly difficult 2020, both by the standards of 2020 itself and by those of recent Afghan history. Nearly 3,000 civilians were killed in the ongoing civil war, and 5,500 were wounded. The figure is 21 per cent lower than 2019, but that macabre silver lining was washed away by a further 2,400 deaths from Covid-19.
Compounding the tragedy, the country is experiencing a surge of polio cases and an epidemic of violent crime in its largest cities. The continued operation of schools and universities was meant to be a steady contributor to social and economic progress, but the pandemic has closed them. Forty per cent of young Afghans, according to the UN, are out of school and unemployed.
Afghan lives and livelihoods are deteriorating quickly. If the parties to the peace talks continue to ignore this and cannot secure a ceasefire, then whichever of them wins the war will merely be king of the ashes.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The Sackler family is a transatlantic dynasty that owns Purdue Pharma, which manufactures and markets OxyContin, one of the drugs at the centre of America's opioids crisis. The family is well known for their generous philanthropy towards the world's top cultural institutions, including Guggenheim Museum, the National Portrait Gallery, Tate in Britain, Yale University and the Serpentine Gallery, to name a few. Two branches of the family control Purdue Pharma.
Isaac Sackler and Sophie Greenberg were Jewish immigrants who arrived in New York before the First World War. They had three sons. The first, Arthur, died before OxyContin was invented. The second, Mortimer, who died aged 93 in 2010, was a former chief executive of Purdue Pharma. The third, Raymond, died aged 97 in 2017 and was also a former chief executive of Purdue Pharma.
It was Arthur, a psychiatrist and pharmaceutical marketeer, who started the family business dynasty. He and his brothers bought a small company called Purdue Frederick; among their first products were laxatives and prescription earwax remover.
Arthur's branch of the family has not been involved in Purdue for many years and his daughter, Elizabeth, has spoken out against it, saying the company's role in America's drugs crisis is "morally abhorrent".
The lawsuits that were brought by the attorneys general of New York and Massachussetts named eight Sacklers. This includes Kathe, Mortimer, Richard, Jonathan and Ilene Sackler Lefcourt, who are all the children of either Mortimer or Raymond. Then there's Theresa Sackler, who is Mortimer senior's widow; Beverly, Raymond's widow; and David Sackler, Raymond's grandson.
Members of the Sackler family are rarely seen in public.
The bio
Favourite vegetable: Broccoli
Favourite food: Seafood
Favourite thing to cook: Duck l'orange
Favourite book: Give and Take by Adam Grant, one of his professors at University of Pennsylvania
Twelve books were longlisted for The Orwell Prize for Political Writing. The non-fiction works cover various themes from education, gender bias, and the environment to surveillance and political power. Some of the books that made it to the non-fiction longlist include:
Appeasing Hitler: Chamberlain, Churchill and the Road to War by Tim Bouverie
Some Kids I Taught and What They Taught Me by Kate Clanchy
Invisible Women: Exposing Data Bias in a World Designed for Men by Caroline Criado Perez
Follow Me, Akhi: The Online World of British Muslims by Hussein Kesvani
Guest House for Young Widows: Among the Women of ISIS by Azadeh Moaveni
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
AI traffic lights to ease congestion at seven points to Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Street
The seven points are:
Shakhbout bin Sultan Street
Dhafeer Street
Hadbat Al Ghubainah Street (outbound)
Salama bint Butti Street
Al Dhafra Street
Rabdan Street
Umm Yifina Street exit (inbound)
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
