Indian laborers rest on a road outside studios of artisans waiting to be hired to transport clay idols of Hindu goddess Durga ahead of Durga Puja festival in Kolkata, India, Saturday, Sept. 16, 2017. The idols are taken to worship venues for the festival that begins last week of September. (AP Photo/Bikas Das)
Narendra Modi's policy of “demonetisation”, which banned 86 per cent of all currency in circulation, only compounded the misery of India’s poorest. Bikas Das / AP

Is Modi's 'shining' India merely a mirage?



Asked last year to comment on the state of India's inequality, the celebrated French economist Thomas Piketty replied: "We don't really know". But now we do. According to a paper published last week by Mr Piketty and his colleague, Lucas Chancel, income inequality in India is at its most extreme since 1922, when India was a British colony.  The liberalisation of India's economy, which began in the 1980s and intensified in the 1990s, lifted millions of people out of extreme poverty. India is now home to one of the largest middle classes. But the chief beneficiaries of the state's gradual self-evacuation from the "commanding heights" of the economy have been the top one per cent of Indians, who today appropriate a larger share of the country's income than at any point in the last century.

Under the British Raj, says the report by Messrs Piketty and Chancel, the "top 1 per cent of earners captured less than 21 per cent of total income". This figure, having dropped to six per cent in the early 1980s, now stands at 22 per cent. Advocates of economic growth have long argued that the pursuit of equality hampers the fight against poverty. Prosperity, they said, would eventually percolate to the bottom rungs of society. This clearly hasn't happened. In fact, according to Messrs Piketty and Chancel, the Indian middle class was better off between 1951 and 1980 – the high noon of socialism. This period, much decried now, is when India built its industrial capacity and laid down safety nets for the poorest.

The better future promised by champions of economic reforms may yet come about, but what of the millions of Indians who have adversely been affected by this transition? Indian prime minister Narendra Modi promised to reach out to them. Yet his policy of "demonetisation", which banned 86 per cent of all currency in circulation, only compounded the misery of India's poorest. The rich are getting richer, the middle class is getting poorer, and there is no upward mobility for the poor. If Mr Modi doesn't urgently address this problem, "shining India" will come to be seen as a cruel hoax.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Tips for job-seekers
  • Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
  • Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.

David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East