After scientist's murder, Iran should opt for restraint
After the assassination of Iran's leading nuclear scientist, some in the country will be calling for retaliation. This would be dangerous for the region
The assassination last week of a top Iranian scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, is undoubtedly a blow to the malign mission in which he was accused of playing a central role: Tehran’s suspected nuclear weapons programme. But the fallout, if mismanaged, could be damaging to the region as a whole.
For Tehran's hardliners, looking like an ineffective victim is unconscionable
Iran has faced similar setbacks before. Four Iranian nuclear scientists were assassinated between 2010 and 2012. And last January, the head of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Qassem Suleimani, was killed in a US strike. While it remains unclear who is behind the killing, attacks like these fuel anxiety in Iran's government.
Despite threats of a severe response each time, however, Tehran’s immediate retribution tends to be more muted. The fact that there was no direct military response after the killing of Suleimani, whose death was far more significant and symbolic than Fakhrizadeh, is telling about the unlikelihood of such a response this time around.
There are important distinctions between the two men's profiles. Suleimani was a soldier who had ordered many assassinations. Fakhrizadeh’s killing was more surprising as he was not seen as an immeditate military target. Although Iran’s progress towards a nuclear weapon must not be allowed to continue apace, critics will question whether long-term safety and justice are served if extra-judicial killings become a staple of strategies to contain those ambitions.
Moreover, Fakhrizadeh’s assassination creates new risks. Iran has many violent proxy groups in the region. They endanger the lives of those living in countries in which Iranian influence is strong. Rising tensions could result in tragic missteps, like Iran's inadvertent downing of a Ukrainian airliner, killing all 176 passengers, in the tense atmosphere after Suleimani's assassination.
Iranian state media has said that Fakhirzadeh's body will be taken to various shrines throughout the country. AFP
There are political risks, too. Fakhrizadeh’s killing and the emotive internal response to it could empower those in Tehran advocating aggressive reactions. Perhaps this is what the assassins were relying on. Iran’s hard-line faction already has some momentum, as the country struggles under sanctions, Covid-19 and a plunging economy. Paranoia within the government could make Iran move its activities further underground, complicating future negotiations for a new nuclear deal to curb its weapons programme.
History shows us that an Iran under pressure can be particularly volatile. For Tehran’s hardliners, looking like an ineffective victim is unconscionable. In contrast, the real danger to Iran, its people and the wider Middle East, would be the reckless actions advocated by the fringe. Iran should view its current vulnerability as proof that it cannot justify its pariah status any longer.
In less than two months, Joe Biden will take his seat in the Oval Office and his administration will endeavour to find a more certain path by which Iran can come in from the cold. This can only happen, however, if Iran’s leaders can demonstrate restraint and level-headedness, and walk away from their destabilising activities within their borders and around the region.
Founders: Amira Rashad (CEO), Yusuf Saber (CTO), Mahmoud Sayedahmed (adviser), Reda Bouraoui (adviser)
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: E-commerce
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Investors: Beco Capital, Enabling Future and Wain in the UAE; China's MSA Capital; 500 Startups; Faith Capital and Savour Ventures in Kuwait
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
