As US negotiations to secure peace with the Taliban drag on, hopes fade for a stable American withdrawal from Afghanistan. President Joe Biden has already said he will ignore a previously agreed deadline to extricate US forces by May 1, hinting instead that soldiers will be gone by next year. His intelligence agencies are pushing back even against this delayed timetable.
Last week, it was reported that American officials fear a Taliban takeover of the country if US forces leave before agreeing an enduring framework for peace. Going by the current pace of talks, this is still some way off.
The Taliban shows no desire to achieve a lasting peace by any means other than war. Thousands of Afghans have died at their hands while talks in the hotels of Doha drag on. Ten policemen were killed in the town of Sangin last week, including a senior commander. A string of other attacks have taken place in other areas. Far from being punished, the group has secured major concessions in return for nothing, including the release of thousands of its prisoners. None of this should come as a surprise. The Taliban is notoriously opportunistic and well-practised in using Western fatigue to its advantage. And with this fatigue come perfect conditions for a takeover, a tragedy that could condemn Afghans, particularly women, to a government made up of their longstanding oppressors. Such a situation would be shamefully similar to the one that the US-led coalition sought to end almost two decades ago.
It could also turn out to be even worse. Amid a breakdown in governance during recent years, an array of militias has emerged. The war against the Taliban is, in many parts of Afghanistan, waged independently of the government, with the national army lacking the resources to be present. Many of the militias arose as the self-appointed protectors of their local communities. Where they have succeeded, they sometimes supplant the central government's authority.
A video that allegedly shows the moment an Afghan Air Force helicopter was shot down by what appears to be a guided missile. Credit: Tolo News
But they are now a powder keg for all-out, multi-front and partisan war. Their power is particularly devastating when it is redirected towards the government. On March 20, a militia in Wardak province used a sophisticated guided missile to down an Afghan Air Force helicopter, killing all onboard. Responsibility for the attack was claimed by men loyal to Abdul Ghani Alipour, a former lorry driver turned guerilla commander, whose men refer to him as "Commander Sword".
Little is yet known about the origin of the weapon Alipour's men used, but several Afghan government officials have pointed the finger at neighbouring Iran, which manufactures similar missiles and has long been rumoured to have supported Alipour's local defence operations against the Taliban. Simultaneously, there is mounting evidence that Iran also funds and arms large sections of the Taliban. Elsewhere in the country, other militia groups have operated for years with political and financial support from Pakistan and Turkey.
Afghanistan's weakened state, increasingly threatened by a resurgent Taliban, could soon be seeing domestic strife exacerbated by foreign powers. Mr Biden must re-assess his approach there quickly. The US and its allies have invested huge resources and a tragic number of lives in the nation's security. Without long-term commitment and a realistic understanding of the changing security environment, America risks surrendering Afghanistan to the Taliban rule of 20 years ago, or to an even more dangerous and complex civil war.
Regional militias have been on the up in Afghanistan. AFP
Many of these armed groups started out protecting local communities against the Taliban. AFP
Increasingly powerful militias have attacked government targets. AFP
There are concerns that these armed groups are funded from abroad. AFP
A war involving rival factions in Afghanistan would be devastating. AFP
A militia recently shot down an Afghan military helicopter. AFP
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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
