As US negotiations to secure peace with the Taliban drag on, hopes fade for a stable American withdrawal from Afghanistan. President Joe Biden has already said he will ignore a previously agreed deadline to extricate US forces by May 1, hinting instead that soldiers will be gone by next year. His intelligence agencies are pushing back even against this delayed timetable.
Last week, it was reported that American officials fear a Taliban takeover of the country if US forces leave before agreeing an enduring framework for peace. Going by the current pace of talks, this is still some way off.
The Taliban shows no desire to achieve a lasting peace by any means other than war. Thousands of Afghans have died at their hands while talks in the hotels of Doha drag on. Ten policemen were killed in the town of Sangin last week, including a senior commander. A string of other attacks have taken place in other areas. Far from being punished, the group has secured major concessions in return for nothing, including the release of thousands of its prisoners. None of this should come as a surprise. The Taliban is notoriously opportunistic and well-practised in using Western fatigue to its advantage. And with this fatigue come perfect conditions for a takeover, a tragedy that could condemn Afghans, particularly women, to a government made up of their longstanding oppressors. Such a situation would be shamefully similar to the one that the US-led coalition sought to end almost two decades ago.
It could also turn out to be even worse. Amid a breakdown in governance during recent years, an array of militias has emerged. The war against the Taliban is, in many parts of Afghanistan, waged independently of the government, with the national army lacking the resources to be present. Many of the militias arose as the self-appointed protectors of their local communities. Where they have succeeded, they sometimes supplant the central government's authority.
A video that allegedly shows the moment an Afghan Air Force helicopter was shot down by what appears to be a guided missile. Credit: Tolo News
But they are now a powder keg for all-out, multi-front and partisan war. Their power is particularly devastating when it is redirected towards the government. On March 20, a militia in Wardak province used a sophisticated guided missile to down an Afghan Air Force helicopter, killing all onboard. Responsibility for the attack was claimed by men loyal to Abdul Ghani Alipour, a former lorry driver turned guerilla commander, whose men refer to him as "Commander Sword".
Little is yet known about the origin of the weapon Alipour's men used, but several Afghan government officials have pointed the finger at neighbouring Iran, which manufactures similar missiles and has long been rumoured to have supported Alipour's local defence operations against the Taliban. Simultaneously, there is mounting evidence that Iran also funds and arms large sections of the Taliban. Elsewhere in the country, other militia groups have operated for years with political and financial support from Pakistan and Turkey.
Afghanistan's weakened state, increasingly threatened by a resurgent Taliban, could soon be seeing domestic strife exacerbated by foreign powers. Mr Biden must re-assess his approach there quickly. The US and its allies have invested huge resources and a tragic number of lives in the nation's security. Without long-term commitment and a realistic understanding of the changing security environment, America risks surrendering Afghanistan to the Taliban rule of 20 years ago, or to an even more dangerous and complex civil war.
Regional militias have been on the up in Afghanistan. AFP
Many of these armed groups started out protecting local communities against the Taliban. AFP
Increasingly powerful militias have attacked government targets. AFP
There are concerns that these armed groups are funded from abroad. AFP
A war involving rival factions in Afghanistan would be devastating. AFP
A militia recently shot down an Afghan military helicopter. AFP
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Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
I am in awe of the remarkable women in the Arab region, both big and small, pushing boundaries and becoming role models for generations. Emily Nasrallah was a writer, journalist, teacher and women’s rights activist
How do you relax?
Yoga relaxes me and helps me relieve tension, especially now when we’re practically chained to laptops and desks. I enjoy learning more about music and the history of famous music bands and genres.
What is favourite book?
The Perks of Being a Wallflower - I think I've read it more than 7 times
What is your favourite Arabic film?
Hala2 Lawen (Translation: Where Do We Go Now?) by Nadine Labaki
What is favourite English film?
Mamma Mia
Best piece of advice to someone looking for a career at Google?
If you’re interested in a career at Google, deep dive into the different career paths and pinpoint the space you want to join. When you know your space, you’re likely to identify the skills you need to develop.
Uefa Nations League: How it works
The Uefa Nations League, introduced last year, has reached its final stage, to be played over five days in northern Portugal. The format of its closing tournament is compact, spread over two semi-finals, with the first, Portugal versus Switzerland in Porto on Wednesday evening, and the second, England against the Netherlands, in Guimaraes, on Thursday.
The winners of each semi will then meet at Porto’s Dragao stadium on Sunday, with the losing semi-finalists contesting a third-place play-off in Guimaraes earlier that day.
Qualifying for the final stage was via League A of the inaugural Nations League, in which the top 12 European countries according to Uefa's co-efficient seeding system were divided into four groups, the teams playing each other twice between September and November. Portugal, who finished above Italy and Poland, successfully bid to host the finals.
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
