Iran's loss is a turning point for the Middle East

A picture of the late President Ebrahim Raisi is seen on a street in Tehran on Monday. The full impact of his sudden death, along with that of other senior Iranian political figures in a helicopter crash, will only be understood days or months from now. ReutersShow less

When reports emerged on Sunday afternoon that a helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and other Iranian figures made a “hard landing” due to heavy fog while travelling from Azerbaijan to the north-western city of Tabriz, many were understandably concerned about the fate of those on board. Sadly, the worst-case scenario has come to pass.

For any country to lose its president and foreign minister in a single incident would be a major blow. When that country is as consequential for the Middle East as Iran, such a loss is an abrupt and unforeseen injection of further uncertainty in a region that is already in the grip of considerable turmoil.

Offers to help find Mr Raisi and his companions came swiftly from many Arab countries as well as Russia, Turkey and China. The EU offered its Copernicus rapid response satellite mapping service to help find the crash site. When news of Mr Raisi’s death was confirmed, condolences followed swiftly.

President Raisi and Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev visit the Qiz-Qalasi dam on the Azerbaijan-Iran border on May 19. Reuters

A supporter of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi holds his portrait during a celebratory rally for his presidential election victory in Tehran in 2021. Wana

Mr Raisi at the inauguration ceremony of the dam of Qiz Qalasi. AP

Kenyan President William Ruto, right, shakes hand with Mr Raisi at the Statehouse in Nairobi, Kenya, on July 12, 2023. EPA

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, left, and Mr Raisi at a meeting of the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Co-operation in Riyadh. AFP

Sultan of Oman, Haitham bin Tariq, right, being welcomed by Mr Raisi during a ceremony in Tehran, Iran, on May 28, 2023. EPA

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Mr Raisi. AFP

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, right, and Mr Raisi on the sidelines of the 77th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the UN headquarters in New York City on September 22, 2022. AFP

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, greets Mr Raisi during their meeting at the Grand Kremlin Palace on December 7, 2023. Getty Images

Mr Raisi, left, with Egypt's President Abdel Fatah Al-Sisi. AFP

Mr Raisi, right, greeted by Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Islamabad. AFP

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, right, shakes hands with Mr Raisi before their meeting at the Presidential palace in Ankara, Turkey, on January 24. AP

The affinity between incoming Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi and supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei goes back decades. Wana via Reuters

Mr Raisi shakes hands with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani during a welcoming ceremony in Tehran, on May 12, 2022. Reuters

Mr Raisi gestures after he votes during presidential elections at a polling station in Tehran.

Mr Raisi, right, greets his Syrian counterpart Bashar Assad in Tehran, on May 8, 2022. EPA

Mr Raisi, Iran's president-elect, speaks after his victory in the election on June 21. Bloomberg

Mr Raisi speaks to the crowd during an election camping rally in Tehran on April 29, 2017. EPA

President Sheikh Mohamed extended his sympathies to the Iranian government and people, and said the UAE stands in solidarity. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he was “deeply saddened and shocked by the tragic demise” of Mr Raisi. The leaders of Qatar and Iraq also expressed their condolences, as did Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who described Mr Raisi and Mr Amirabdollahian as “true and reliable friends of our country”.

Personal relationships are important in international diplomacy, and many leading figures will have had experience of dealing with Mr Raisi and Mr Amirabdollahian on a one-to-one basis. Those relationships have been abruptly cut short.

Nevertheless, Iran, despite foreign and domestic challenges, has clear mechanisms in place for Mr Raisi’s succession; Vice President Mohammad Mokhber has been announced as interim president, providing a measure of continuity. Still, uncertainty looms: an election for a new president must be arranged within 50 days. Elections held in Iran earlier this year amid deep social polarisation saw a record low turnout despite calls from the country’s leadership for citizens to have their say. This is nothing to say of the jockeying for power and influence that will take place among the country’s various factions in the weeks and months ahead.

The full impact of these sudden deaths in north-western Iran will only be understood days or months from now. What is certain, however, is that they will be consequential in critical diplomatic and economic issues, such as Iran’s involvement in international talks regarding its nuclear programme. It is a measure of Iran’s strategic importance that those who value stability in the Middle East will be watching closely to see what happens next.