The Qatar crisis is entering a new phase that might cause it to outlive the current American administration. Kuwaiti mediation has failed. Shuttle diplomacy by Rex Tillerson, the American secretary of state, also has made no headway. There is a growing realisation on all sides that the four countries led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE are prepared to allow the situation to brew for months, if not beyond.
This realisation extends to countries not directly involved in the Gulf dispute. The United Kingdom and France, for example, are deeply worried about the business and diplomatic ramifications of a protracted and unpredictable dispute. Various institutions within the United States are also concerned about the unprecedented fallout among close allies, although Anwar Gargash, the UAE's Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, ruled out the idea of forcing companies to choose between doing business with Qatar and its opponents, in a talk at Chatham House, the London think tank.
First-hand accounts suggest that Gulf officials opposed to Qatar are resentful of Mr Tillerson’s recent diplomacy, despite public support for the anti-terror memorandum of understanding that the Americans signed with the Qataris last week. One source raised the possibility that the decision to sign the MOU was an attempt to spite the quartet over its lack of flexibility.
The MOU, in their view, could be an attempt to signal that the US and Qatar could resolve issues related to terror funding bilaterally, thus weakening the Saudi position by removing a fundamental and strong demand off the list. In Qatar, the MOU was a concession made to the US, not to its neighbours. The Washington Post's leak about an alleged Emirati hacking of Qatari news sites is also seen as a jab at the Saudi side by certain American officials unhappy with the Riyadh bloc's unwavering position.
Many, at least in the region, and particularly within the pro-Qatari camp, were hoping that a stalemate between the two parties would push the US to throw its weight behind finding a solution. This possibility was considered by the anti-Qatar quartet as they made the decision to impose measures against Doha. So, both sides believed the US could have a role to play.
But that prospect now seems remote. The Saudi camp is determined to let the situation simmer. While the US state department seems to favour a quick opening, the White House remains on the quartet's side. Even if that changes, the US has no switch to flip to force four of its close allies to make a U-turn without the Qatari behavioural change they seek. In 2014, for example, Doha agreed to the demands of Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Manama, but it still took seven months before their ambassadors returned to Qatar.
All sides appear to understand this crucial point. But outside policy circles in the Gulf and Washington, voices continue to speak in terms of immediate results. An Al Jazeera anchor, for example, declared that Qatar has emerged victorious and that the Saudi camp failed to bring Doha to its knees. Some pundits also still cite the inability of the four countries to follow up with harsher measures as a sign of Qatari strength.
The limited ability or desire to escalate at this point is not the correct measure of effectiveness. It is simply too early to tell, and that is the point. The four countries believe that Qatar is not ready to make the shift they desire. Because of that understanding, they believe the crisis has to take long enough for Qatar to be convinced that they are serious about it.
Critics of this policy say it will backfire. The policy, they argue, could drive Qatar to the Iranian camp and will be politically and economically costly for the quartet. From the Saudi and Emirati viewpoint, Qatar was never in their geopolitical camp even if it was not an ally of Iran. In Syria, Libya and Egypt, Doha dedicated much of its time, money and energy to regional rivalry, more than anything else.
Additionally, they do not believe that US-aligned Doha could strike a viable alliance with Iran in direct opposition to Saudi Arabia. Suspending Qatar from the Gulf Cooperation Council is still a future possibility, but it is already a de facto reality.
Finally, the four countries are comfortable with allowing the current crisis to drag on as long as Doha is unwilling to truly compromise. They believe that Qatar has to negotiate its way back into the fold. In the meantime, the cost on them is minimal. Indeed, they believe that continued pressure on Doha will allow them to achieve progress in countries like Libya, militarily as well as politically. As one observer from the Gulf recently said, but for the current dispute, Qatar would have poured resources to prevent the fall of Benghazi to the anti-Islamist commander, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar.
Policymakers in the US must understand the calculations of the two sides if they are to break the current stalemate. The crisis is poised to last for many months, if not years. Public discussions of the crisis might obscure what is really going on in the minds of the quartet's leaders, who are clearly determined to see real change in Doha no matter how inconvenient it might be to their American and European allies.
Hassan Hassan is a senior fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Results
ATP Dubai Championships on Monday (x indicates seed):
First round
Roger Federer (SUI x2) bt Philipp Kohlschreiber (GER) 6-4, 3-6, 6-1
Fernando Verdasco (ESP) bt Thomas Fabbiano (ITA) 3-6, 6-3, 6-2
Marton Fucsovics (HUN) bt Damir Dzumhur (BIH) 6-1, 7-6 (7/5)
Nikoloz Basilashvili (GEO) bt Karen Khachanov (RUS x4) 6-4, 6-1
Jan-Lennard Struff (GER) bt Milos Raonic (CAN x7) 6-4, 5-7, 6-4
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
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Semi-final fixtures
Portugal v Chile, 7pm, today
Germany v Mexico, 7pm, tomorrow
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
Essentials
The flights
Return flights from Dubai to Windhoek, with a combination of Emirates and Air Namibia, cost from US$790 (Dh2,902) via Johannesburg.
The trip
A 10-day self-drive in Namibia staying at a combination of the safari camps mentioned – Okonjima AfriCat, Little Kulala, Desert Rhino/Damaraland, Ongava – costs from $7,000 (Dh25,711) per person, including car hire (Toyota 4x4 or similar), but excluding international flights, with The Luxury Safari Company.
When to go
The cooler winter months, from June to September, are best, especially for game viewing.
Women’s World T20, Asia Qualifier, in Bangkok
UAE fixtures Mon Nov 20, v China; Tue Nov 21, v Thailand; Thu Nov 23, v Nepal; Fri Nov 24, v Hong Kong; Sun Nov 26, v Malaysia; Mon Nov 27, Final
(The winners will progress to the Global Qualifier)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
'Doctor Strange in the Multiverse Of Madness'
Director: Sam Raimi
Cast: Benedict Cumberbatch, Elizabeth Olsen, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Benedict Wong, Xochitl Gomez, Michael Stuhlbarg and Rachel McAdams
Rating: 3/5
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Student Of The Year 2
Director: Punit Malhotra
Stars: Tiger Shroff, Tara Sutaria, Ananya Pandey, Aditya Seal
1.5 stars
The%20specs
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Match info
Bournemouth 1 (King 45 1')
Arsenal 2 (Lerma 30' og, Aubameyang 67')
Man of the Match: Sead Kolasinac (Arsenal)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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China
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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6.
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
How will Gen Alpha invest?
Mark Chahwan, co-founder and chief executive of robo-advisory firm Sarwa, forecasts that Generation Alpha (born between 2010 and 2024) will start investing in their teenage years and therefore benefit from compound interest.
“Technology and education should be the main drivers to make this happen, whether it’s investing in a few clicks or their schools/parents stepping up their personal finance education skills,” he adds.
Mr Chahwan says younger generations have a higher capacity to take on risk, but for some their appetite can be more cautious because they are investing for the first time. “Schools still do not teach personal finance and stock market investing, so a lot of the learning journey can feel daunting and intimidating,” he says.
He advises millennials to not always start with an aggressive portfolio even if they can afford to take risks. “We always advise to work your way up to your risk capacity, that way you experience volatility and get used to it. Given the higher risk capacity for the younger generations, stocks are a favourite,” says Mr Chahwan.
Highlighting the role technology has played in encouraging millennials and Gen Z to invest, he says: “They were often excluded, but with lower account minimums ... a customer with $1,000 [Dh3,672] in their account has their money working for them just as hard as the portfolio of a high get-worth individual.”
Indoor Cricket World Cup
Venue Insportz, Dubai, September 16-23
UAE squad Saqib Nazir (captain), Aaqib Malik, Fahad Al Hashmi, Isuru Umesh, Nadir Hussain, Sachin Talwar, Nashwan Nasir, Prashath Kumara, Ramveer Rai, Sameer Nayyak, Umar Shah, Vikrant Shetty
BEACH SOCCER WORLD CUP
Group A
Paraguay
Japan
Switzerland
USA
Group B
Uruguay
Mexico
Italy
Tahiti
Group C
Belarus
UAE
Senegal
Russia
Group D
Brazil
Oman
Portugal
Nigeria
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
I Care A Lot
Directed by: J Blakeson
Starring: Rosamund Pike, Peter Dinklage
3/5 stars
Scoreline
Bournemouth 2
Wilson 70', Ibe 74'
Arsenal 1
Bellerin 52'
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Saturday's results
Women's third round
- 14-Garbine Muguruza Blanco (Spain) beat Sorana Cirstea (Romania) 6-2, 6-2
- Magdalena Rybarikova (Slovakia) beat Lesia Tsurenko (Ukraine) 6-2, 6-1
- 7-Svetlana Kuznetsova (Russia) beat Polona Hercog (Slovenia) 6-4. 6-0
- Coco Vandeweghe (USA) beat Alison Riske (USA) 6-2, 6-4
- 9-Agnieszka Radwanska (Poland) beat 19-Timea Bacsinszky (Switzerland) 3-6, 6-4, 6-1
- Petra Martic (Croatia) beat Zarina Diyas (Kazakhstan) 7-6, 6-1
- Magdalena Rybarikova (Slovakia) beat Lesia Tsurenko (Ukraine) 6-2, 6-1
- 7-Svetlana Kuznetsova (Russia) beat Polona Hercog (Slovenia) 6-4, 6-0
Men's third round
- 13-Grigor Dimitrov (Bulgaria) beat Dudi Sela (Israel) 6-1, 6-1 -- retired
- Sam Queery (United States) beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (France) 6-2, 3-6, 7-6, 1-6, 7-5
- 6-Milos Raonic (Canada) beat 25-Albert Ramos (Spain) 7-6, 6-4, 7-5
- 10-Alexander Zverev (Germany) beat Sebastian Ofner (Austria) 6-4, 6-4, 6-2
- 11-Tomas Berdych (Czech Republic) beat David Ferrer (Spain) 6-3, 6-4, 6-3
- Adrian Mannarino (France) beat 15-Gael Monfils (France) 7-6, 4-6, 5-7, 6-3, 6-2