Last week at Yale Jackson Institute, we held a conference with Justice for Kurds, an advocacy group that seeks to raise awareness for the Kurdish cause. My panel focused on whether there should be a new US Strategy for Syria, Iraq and the Kurds. In other words, should the US help facilitate a Kurdish state?
I started working in Kurdistan before the US toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003. Like most journalists and aid workers I know who’ve have spent time there, I’ve always believed that the Kurds, like all stateless people, deserve the right to self-determination.
The Kurds should have been granted their country after the First World War
But I also foresee a confrontation with Turkey, possibly a military one, if the US supported their independence. Iraq wouldn’t be happy about it, nor would the Iranians or the Syrians. The only neighbour who might benefit is Israel, which has been doing deals with the Kurds for years. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu supported the referendum for independence in 2017, as well as the establishment of a Kurdish state. There’s a strategy to this; Israel isn’t doing it to be magnanimous. It wants a bulwark and ally on the Iranian border. There are also some 200,000 Kurdish Jews in Israel.
As for US involvement, it is a question of allegiance. During the fight against ISIS I was reporting from the Kurdish front lines. I watched the Peshmerga’s tenacity fighting alongside international forces after Iraqi troops melted away following the fall of Mosul in 2014. So when President Donald Trump made the disastrous decision to pull troops out of the Syrian-Turkish border in October 2019, leaving the Kurds to face the consequences alone, I joined most of my colleagues in calling out Trump’s disloyalty and moral cowardice.
But I was also in Erbil in September 2017 for the referendum. A reported 93 per cent of voters were in favour of a separate state, but it was clear that President Masoud Barzani had pushed through the vote without listening to the warnings of his neighbours and the US, who were all urging caution. There were too many objections in the region for them ever to attain independence - at least at that stage. Syria, Turkey and Iran were all concerned that the vote would trigger secessionist movements. Even close advisors of Mr Barzani were confused as to why he pushed for it so early.
The Kurds are the largest ethnic group on the planet without their own nation state. AFP
As feared, the referendum backfired. The federal government in Baghdad declared it illegal and promptly closed the airport in Erbil, shutting off the region from the rest of the world. Neighbours denounced it. Instead of boosting Kurdish power in future deal-making, it caused a direct military confrontation with Iraq. Kurdish Peshmerga fighters were humiliated when Iraqi troops pushed them out of the oil-rich Kirkuk province. It is estimated that the Kurds lost around 40 per cent of the territory that they had taken after the fall of ISIS.
Watching the crackdown by Israeli authorities in Sheikh Jarrah against Palestinians during these past few days has made me think about self-determination. I do believe that the Kurds should, and one day will, have their own state. But it is not going to happen in the foreseeable future, and most likely not without US assistance.
The Kurdish diaspora stretches across the globe. Reuters
America is not on board, or at least not for now. Their memory of the debacle of the 2003 Iraq invasion is too raw. President Biden’s team is more focused on China these days than it is on the Middle East. Mr Biden wants to end wars, as he shown in Afghanistan, rather than risk outright confrontation with Turkey.
This leaves the Kurds adrift. They are the largest ethnic group in the world without a state. They should have been granted their country after the First World War when several countries were carved out of former empires. The international community owes them allegiance and assistance. But there must be a pragmatic road map and timeline, and negotiations must include neighbours. Hollow promises will not work, such as former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s letter that promised things that the US could never implement.
At this stage I can’t imagine Baghdad wanting to go down that road, although there are those who argue that the Iraqi constitution in its current form would be stronger if Kurdistan were independent.
Perhaps one of the most illuminating quotes from our conference at Yale came from Ken Pollock, now at the American Enterprise Institute and a long-time Iraq and Gulf expert, who once worked as a military analyst for the CIA. Mr Pollock is strongly in favour of US support for a potential Kurdish state, but he admits that "self-determination is good for international affairs, but not for international law".
My takeaway from the conference was that sentimentality and romanticism, including my own, has to be tempered when it comes to Kurdistan. In order to obtain independence, there must be wide regional support. Without it, the Kurds risk economic isolation, a potentially besieged country and hostile neighbours.
Janine di Giovanni is a Senior Fellow at Yale Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, and the author of the upcoming The Vanishing: The Twilight of Christianity in the Land of the Prophets
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
The biog
Age: 32
Qualifications: Diploma in engineering from TSI Technical Institute, bachelor’s degree in accounting from Dubai’s Al Ghurair University, master’s degree in human resources from Abu Dhabi University, currently third years PHD in strategy of human resources.
Favourite mountain range: The Himalayas
Favourite experience: Two months trekking in Alaska
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Arda Atalay, head of Mena private sector at LinkedIn Talent Solutions, Rudy Bier, managing partner of Kinetic Business Solutions and Ben Kinerman Daltrey, co-founder of KinFitz
