Suddenly the space for action for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has shrunk dramatically.
Just a month ago the leading think tank, European Council on Foreign Relations, was bemoaning the lack of cards in the bloc's hand to play against the Turkish leader. The Europeans stand frustrated and apparently impotent in front of his expansionist power projects both at sea in the Mediterranean and conflict zones from Libya to Nagorno-Karabakh.
Why then is Mr Erdogan appearing to give ground?
His shake-up of his economic team this week was an uncharacteristic concession. Mr Erdogan engineered the exit of his son-in-law Berat Albayrak as finance and treasury minister. The Turkish President has also promised to shake up his country's institutions and enact judicial reforms.
It all suggests a reopening after a grim tailspin went into overdrive following the failed coup attempt in 2016.
Migrants walk towards the Greek border in Pazarkule, in the Edirne district. Thousands of migrants stuck on the Turkey-Greece border clashed with Greek police. AFP
Children sit on a beach near Skala Sykamineas on the Greek Lesbos island after crossing the Aegean sea between Turkey and Greece. AFP
Migrants help each other after an attempt to enter Greece from a location near Edirne, Turkey, by crossing the Maritsa river. AFP
Migrants walk towards the Greek border in Pazarkule, in the Edirne district. AFP
Migrants on a dinghy cross the Evros river to reach Greece, pictured from the Turkish border city of Edirne, Turkey. Reuters
Migrants carry a dinghy to cross the Evros river to reach Greece, pictured near the Turkish border city of Edirne, Turkey. Reuters
Migrants gather around a fire as they wait to cross the Evros river to reach Greece, near Doyran Village, near the Turkish border city of Edirne, Turkey. Reuters
A group of migrants are detained after being caught by police on the side of the highway near the Greek-Turkish border. Getty Images
Migrants on a dinghy cross the Evros river and reach Greece, pictured from the Turkish border city of Edirne, Turkey. Reuters
Migrants walk along the Evros river to reach Greece, near the Turkish border city of Edirne, Turkey. Reuters
Migrants sit waiting near the buffer zone at Turkey-Greece border, at Pazarkule, in Edirne district. AFP
A migrant passes to the buffer zone during clashes with Greek police at the Turkey-Greece border, at Pazarkule, in Edirne distric. Thousands of migrants stuck on the Turkey-Greece border clashed with Greek police. AFP
A migrant walk towards the Greek border in Pazarkule, in the Edirne district. AFP
There have been signs of a welcome for his moves. The lira has rallied on the removal of an economy tsar who dogmatically insisted that reduced interest rates were the path to low inflation. Tongues are wagging in Ankara and Istanbul that Mr Erdogan is shifting to accommodate the new pressures that the incoming US administration of Joe Biden will bring. The fragility of the economy robs Mr Erdogan of a narrative to present to a Democratic administration at a time when internal record of his leadership will be far more closely scrutinised.
It would be folly for Mr Biden’s team to fall for this window-dressing as a real platform for partnership. The Erdogan that Mr Biden is now dealing with has shed much of his political skin since the Democrats were last in power almost four years ago.
The assumption that the new administration can go back to the relationship – and the actors it worked with – before is not really on the cards. The Erdogan agenda is here to stay, makeover or not.
Even this week Mr Erdogan was pursuing his efforts to weaken the Europeans. This is a key policy that grants him the scope to meddle beyond Turkish borders in traditional stomping grounds of the Middle East, North Africa and the Caucuses.
He visited Northern Cyprus to push his "two-state, one-island" plan for the island. This is a direct confrontation with European interests and has firmed up the continent's pressure to promulgate sanctions on Ankara.
The Turkish exploration activity around Cyprus and in Greek waters is steadily weakening Nato. A clash earlier this year between a Turkish vessel and a French Corvette led to a complaint to the alliance. But the inquiry was never satisfactorily resolved.
A soldier hangs from a helicopter during a military exercise in the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. AFP
Turkey's research vessel, Oruc Reis, center, is surrounded by Turkish navy vessels as it was heading in the west of Antalya on the Mediterranean, Turkey. AP
Turkish seismic research vessel 'Oruc Reis' heads in the west of Antalya on the Mediterranean Sea.AFP
A Turkish Navy warship patroling next to Turkey's drilling ship "Fatih" dispatched towards the eastern Mediterranean near Cyprus. AFP
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan shakes hands with Fayez al-Sarraj, the head of the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord , during their meeting in Istanbul. Turkey signed a military deal late on November 27, 2019, with Libya's UN-recognised government following a meeting with Turkish President in Istanbul, his office said. AFP
In a note last week the Washington think tank, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, identified the Eastern Mediterranean as potential flash point for the Biden administration. To maintain Nato’s effectiveness and readiness in its “southern flank” will be a top priority for Washington as it seeks to shore up US global leadership.
Mr Erdogan's positioning is therefore a complicating factor for the US. Turkey has an opportunistic and symbiotic relationship with Russia that CSIS points out undermines policies based on reducing or eliminating threats in the Nato allies' sphere of influence.
The Turkish leader not so long ago declared that French President Emmanuel Macron "needed mental treatment". As European countries including France increasingly appreciate the threat to their social and political systems posed by Islamist extremism, Mr Erdogan has found himself on the wrong side of the dividing line.
In Germany, the Netherlands and Austria, the Diyanet – Turkey's directorate of religious affairs, which is directly controlled by the presidency – is increasingly seen as a hostile presence among the local community. Its role in controlling religious institutions is the primary reason that there are proposals for training or licensing imams across Europe to ensure a common standard and as a bulwark against extremism.
From a European vantage point, it remains essential to get Turkish relations right. The great wave of migration westwards in 2015 was a demonstration of how bad things can get when that relationship is overwhelmed.
The Europeans are also keen to find a role in the power balance that plays out between the US and China – and the White House and the Kremlin for that matter – once President-elect Biden formally assumes office.
With his instinct of these equations honed over 18 years at the helm of the Turkish state, Mr Erdogan no doubt wants to establish a first mover advantage.
The Obama administration, in which Mr Biden was vice president, was favourable to him in many ways. It reduced sanctions on Iran that allowed Ankara to enjoy a lucrative trading and financial relationship with Tehran. Officials had a benign attitude to the Muslim Brotherhood as Mr Erdogan came to the fore under that umbrella.
The troubles that follow from Mr Erdogan’s policies, as these play out in the Middle East and Europe, cannot be as easily ignored this time round. Not only will the administration acknowledge the Abrahamic Accords but it will seek stability and rebuilding in Libya, and perhaps even Syria, in a way that will not be compatible with Turkish interests.
As Mr Biden rebuilds America's relations with Europe and necessarily shores up Nato’s southern flank, he will find Turkey's place in that alliance an increasingly uncomfortable problem.
Damien McElroy is the London bureau chief of The National
Starring: Jeremy Allen White, Odessa Young, Jeremy Strong
Rating: 4/5
Pox that threatens the Middle East's native species
Camelpox
Caused by a virus related to the one that causes human smallpox, camelpox typically causes fever, swelling of lymph nodes and skin lesions in camels aged over three, but the animal usually recovers after a month or so. Younger animals may develop a more acute form that causes internal lesions and diarrhoea, and is often fatal, especially when secondary infections result. It is found across the Middle East as well as in parts of Asia, Africa, Russia and India.
Falconpox
Falconpox can cause a variety of types of lesions, which can affect, for example, the eyelids, feet and the areas above and below the beak. It is a problem among captive falcons and is one of many types of avian pox or avipox diseases that together affect dozens of bird species across the world. Among the other forms are pigeonpox, turkeypox, starlingpox and canarypox. Avipox viruses are spread by mosquitoes and direct bird-to-bird contact.
Houbarapox
Houbarapox is, like falconpox, one of the many forms of avipox diseases. It exists in various forms, with a type that causes skin lesions being least likely to result in death. Other forms cause more severe lesions, including internal lesions, and are more likely to kill the bird, often because secondary infections develop. This summer the CVRL reported an outbreak of pox in houbaras after rains in spring led to an increase in mosquito numbers.
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
On sale: Now
The Cockroach
(Vintage)
Ian McEwan
Trump v Khan
2016: Feud begins after Khan criticised Trump’s proposed Muslim travel ban to US
2017: Trump criticises Khan’s ‘no reason to be alarmed’ response to London Bridge terror attacks
2019: Trump calls Khan a “stone cold loser” before first state visit
2019: Trump tweets about “Khan’s Londonistan”, calling him “a national disgrace”
2022: Khan’s office attributes rise in Islamophobic abuse against the major to hostility stoked during Trump’s presidency
July 2025 During a golfing trip to Scotland, Trump calls Khan “a nasty person”
Sept 2025 Trump blames Khan for London’s “stabbings and the dirt and the filth”.
Dec 2025 Trump suggests migrants got Khan elected, calls him a “horrible, vicious, disgusting mayor”
WWE TLC results
Asuka won the SmackDown Women's title in a TLC triple threat with Becky Lynch and Charlotte Flair
Dean Ambrose won the Intercontinental title against Seth Rollins
Daniel Bryan retained the WWE World Heavyweight Championship against AJ Styles
Ronda Rousey retained the Raw Women's Championship against Nia Jax
Rey Mysterio beat Randy Orton in a chairs match
Finn Balor defeated Drew McIntyre
Natalya beat Ruby Riott in a tables match
Braun Strowman beat Baron Corbin in a TLC match
Sheamus and Cesaro retained the SmackDown Tag Titles against The Usos and New Day
R-Truth and Carmella won the Mixed Match Challenge by beating Jinder Mahal and Alicia Fox
So what is Spicy Chickenjoy?
Just as McDonald’s has the Big Mac, Jollibee has Spicy Chickenjoy – a piece of fried chicken that’s crispy and spicy on the outside and comes with a side of spaghetti, all covered in tomato sauce and topped with sausage slices and ground beef. It sounds like a recipe that a child would come up with, but perhaps that’s the point – a flavourbomb combination of cheap comfort foods. Chickenjoy is Jollibee’s best-selling product in every country in which it has a presence.
Call of Duty: Black Ops 6
Developer: Treyarch, Raven Software Publisher: Activision Console: PlayStation 4 & 5, Windows, Xbox One & Series X/S Rating: 3.5/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 640hp
Torque: 760nm
On sale: 2026
Price: Not announced yet
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre, four-cylinder turbo
Transmission: seven-speed dual clutch automatic
Power: 169bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh54,500
On sale: now
In the Restaurant: Society in Four Courses
Christoph Ribbat
Translated by Jamie Searle Romanelli
Pushkin Press
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
A UK report on youth social media habits commissioned by advocacy group Volteface found a quarter of young people were exposed to illegal drug dealers on social media.
The poll of 2,006 people aged 16-24 assessed their exposure to drug dealers online in a nationally representative survey.
Of those admitting to seeing drugs for sale online, 56 per cent saw them advertised on Snapchat, 55 per cent on Instagram and 47 per cent on Facebook.
Cannabis was the drug most pushed by online dealers, with 63 per cent of survey respondents claiming to have seen adverts on social media for the drug, followed by cocaine (26 per cent) and MDMA/ecstasy, with 24 per cent of people.
Monster
Directed by: Anthony Mandler
Starring: Kelvin Harrison Jr., John David Washington
Flying
There is no simple way to get to Punta Arenas from the UAE, with flights from Dubai and Abu Dhabi requiring at least two connections to reach this part of Patagonia. Flights start from about Dh6,250.
Touring
Chile Nativo offers the amended Los Dientes trek with expert guides and porters who are met in Puerto Williams on Isla Navarino. The trip starts and ends in Punta Arenas and lasts for six days in total. Prices start from Dh8,795.
Europe's top EV producers
Norway (63% of cars registered in 2021)
Iceland (33%)
Netherlands (20%)
Sweden (19%)
Austria (14%)
Germany (14%)
Denmark (13%)
Switzerland (13%)
United Kingdom (12%)
Luxembourg (10%)
Source: VCOe
Tonight's Chat on The National
Tonight's Chat is a series of online conversations on The National. The series features a diverse range of celebrities, politicians and business leaders from around the Arab world.
Tonight’s Chat host Ricardo Karam is a renowned author and broadcaster who has previously interviewed Bill Gates, Carlos Ghosn, Andre Agassi and the late Zaha Hadid, among others.
Intellectually curious and thought-provoking, Tonight’s Chat moves the conversation forward.
iPhone XS
With a 5.8-inch screen, it will be an advance version of the iPhone X. It will be dual sim and comes with better battery life, a faster processor and better camera. A new gold colour will be available. Price: Dh4,229
iPhone XS Max
It is expected to be a grander version of the iPhone X with a 6.5-inch screen; an inch bigger than the screen of the iPhone 8 Plus. Price: Dh4,649
iPhone XR
A low-cost version of the iPhone X with a 6.1-inch screen, it is expected to attract mass attention. According to industry experts, it is likely to have aluminium edges instead of stainless steel. Price: Dh3,179
Apple Watch Series 4
More comprehensive health device with edge-to-edge displays that are more than 30 per cent bigger than displays on current models.
Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
Submit their request
What are the regulations?
Fly it within visual line of sight
Never over populated areas
Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
Should have a live feed of the drone flight
Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
What are the influencer academy modules?
Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
Cinematography, shots and movement.
All aspects of post-production.
Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
Tourism industry knowledge.
Professional ethics.
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
Director: Romany Saad Starring: Mirfat Amin, Boumi Fouad and Tariq Al Ibyari
Afghanistan fixtures
v Australia, today
v Sri Lanka, Tuesday
v New Zealand, Saturday,
v South Africa, June 15
v England, June 18
v India, June 22
v Bangladesh, June 24
v Pakistan, June 29
v West Indies, July 4
Who is Allegra Stratton?
Previously worked at The Guardian, BBC’s Newsnight programme and ITV News
Took up a public relations role for Chancellor Rishi Sunak in April 2020
In October 2020 she was hired to lead No 10’s planned daily televised press briefings
The idea was later scrapped and she was appointed spokeswoman for Cop26
Ms Stratton, 41, is married to James Forsyth, the political editor of The Spectator
She has strong connections to the Conservative establishment
Mr Sunak served as best man at her 2011 wedding to Mr Forsyth
The major Hashd factions linked to Iran:
Badr Organisation: Seen as the most militarily capable faction in the Hashd. Iraqi Shiite exiles opposed to Saddam Hussein set up the group in Tehran in the early 1980s as the Badr Corps under the supervision of the Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The militia exalts Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei but intermittently cooperated with the US military.
Saraya Al Salam (Peace Brigade): Comprised of former members of the officially defunct Mahdi Army, a militia that was commanded by Iraqi cleric Moqtada Al Sadr and fought US and Iraqi government and other forces between 2004 and 2008. As part of a political overhaul aimed as casting Mr Al Sadr as a more nationalist and less sectarian figure, the cleric formed Saraya Al Salam in 2014. The group’s relations with Iran has been volatile.
Kataeb Hezbollah: The group, which is fighting on behalf of the Bashar Al Assad government in Syria, traces its origins to attacks on US forces in Iraq in 2004 and adopts a tough stance against Washington, calling the United States “the enemy of humanity”.
Asaeb Ahl Al Haq: An offshoot of the Mahdi Army active in Syria. Asaeb Ahl Al Haq’s leader Qais al Khazali was a student of Mr Al Moqtada’s late father Mohammed Sadeq Al Sadr, a prominent Shiite cleric who was killed during Saddam Hussein’s rule.
Harakat Hezbollah Al Nujaba: Formed in 2013 to fight alongside Mr Al Assad’s loyalists in Syria before joining the Hashd. The group is seen as among the most ideological and sectarian-driven Hashd militias in Syria and is the major recruiter of foreign fighters to Syria.
Saraya Al Khorasani: The ICRG formed Saraya Al Khorasani in the mid-1990s and the group is seen as the most ideologically attached to Iran among Tehran’s satellites in Iraq.
(Source: The Wilson Centre, the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation)
RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,200m
Winner: Shafaf, Sam Hitchcott (jockey), Ahmed Al Mehairbi (trainer) 5,30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,200m
Winner: Noof KB, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel 6pm: The President’s Cup Listed (TB) Dh380,000 1,400m
Winner: Taamol, Jim Crowley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe 6.30pm: The President’s Cup Group One (PA) Dh2,500,000 2,200m
Winner: Rmmas, Tadhg O’Shea, Jean de Roualle 7pm: Arabian Triple Crown Listed (PA) Dh230,000 1,600m
Winner: Ihtesham, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami 7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: AF Mekhbat, Antonio Fresu, Ernst Oertel
