Why Americans campaigning for Joe Biden are worried

Al Gore is a politician whose reputation after he left mainstream politics actually improved. He is best known now for environmental activism in his films and publications on climate change. But while he was US Vice President during the Clinton years, comedians joked that the difference between Gore and a coffee table was that "he was the wooden one."

On one occasion, when I was supposed to interview former US president Bill Clinton, White House staff called to say that a death in Mr Clinton’s family meant he had to return to Arkansas, but vice president Gore would do the interview instead. My heart sank.

Al Gore is smart and likeable but he was not an interesting interviewee. When I turned up for the interview in the White House Roosevelt Room, Mr Gore arrived carrying Socks, the Clinton cat. He put Socks on my lap and laughed: “Here – that’s as close as you’re going to get to the Clinton Charisma today.”

We chatted for a while, but as soon as the camera turned on, the warm and witty vice president disappeared and – to be brutal – I would have had a better interview with the cat. But Mr Gore was – and is – a good man. He proved it in 2000 during the presidential election with George W Bush, when Americans ended with the closest election result in history. A few hundred votes in Florida determined the winner.

US President Bill Clinton steps over the family pet cat Socks as he returns to the White House in Washington, 14 April 1994. Paul J Richards / AFP

Under the American system, invented in the days of the horse and cart, the president is not directly elected. That is why even though Hillary Clinton had more popular votes than Donald Trump, Mr Trump won more “Electoral College” votes from each state, and those votes decide the winner.

Bill Clinton and Al Gore at the inauguration of US President-elect George W Bush, on 20 January 2001 in Washington, DC. Paul J Richards / AFP

Florida in 2000 had a particularly antiquated voting system and Mr Bush and Mr Gore disagreed on who had won. In the bitter dispute over a recount the judgement went to the US Supreme Court and – to simplify complex constitutional, legal and practical questions – the court decided in favour of Mr Bush.

But the US Supreme Court was and is composed of political appointees, judges appointed for life by the president of the day. In 2000, the Supreme Court was seen as highly partisan. Thomas Mann of the Brookings Institute wrote in January 2001 that "Bush ultimately garnered the presidency when a sharply divided and transparently political Supreme Court ended the manual recount in Florida that might have produced a different outcome."

The White House, Washington, DC. Mandel Ngan / AFP

The US Supreme Court, in Washington, DC. Saul Loeb/ AFP

Al Gore did what was best for the US and conceded, even though it was probably not the best thing for Al Gore. A few hundred dodgy votes decided the fate of 300 million people, while many scholars and journalists suspected a fair recount would have given Gore Florida – and the presidency.

You can guess why I'm reminiscing. When I attended George W Bush's Inauguration in January 2001 as he took the oath of office I wondered about one of the great "what ifs" of history. What if Al Gore had simply said "The Supreme Court is partisan. The election was stolen by Republicans. It is unfair and I do not accept that Bush won." Al Gore would never do such a thing. But Donald Trump might. Mr Trump is a Rino – Republican In Name Only. He has no "ideology" beyond what is best for Donald Trump.

And that is why Americans campaigning for Joe Biden are worried despite the opinion polls showing Mr Biden coasting to victory. Mr Biden needs a big turnout, and a massive and overwhelming victory.

Joe Biden (R) and Donald Trump take part in the first presidential debate in Cleveland, Ohio, on September 29. Saul Loeb / AFP

Even if Mr Biden is ahead by 10 per cent in the popular vote in November, if Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan or some other state were to appear neck and neck, there could be trouble. Postal votes, in the antiquated US system, take a long time to count, and many observers believe they will favour Mr Biden.

So imagine if a few hours after polls close Mr Trump is ahead in the early vote tallies in key states before millions of postal votes are counted. He declares victory, prematurely and wrongly, and claims that postal votes are contaminated or illegitimate. Another legal wrangle ensues. It ends up in a Supreme Court packed with Republican-nominated judges, including Mr Trump's new nominee, Amy Coney Barrett.

Supporters of Supreme Court nominee Judge Amy Coney Barrett show their support outside the Supreme Court on 17 October, in Washington, DC. Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images/AFP

She claimed in 2016 that Barack Obama should not nominate a new Supreme Court judge in an election year but miraculously in 2020 she herself is delighted to be nominated by Donald Trump, in – yes – an election year. America is far more divided now than it was in 2000 and Joe Biden is not going to let a man he sees as the worst president in living memory steal the presidency from him. Mr Trump is used to telling people “you’re fired.”

American voters will need to vote out Donald Trump in overwhelming numbers to be sure that the Trump years do not end in a damaging and bitter constitutional wrangle.

Moreover, some Democrats have urged Mr Biden if he is elected, to expand the Supreme Court from nine to 15 members, with his own appointees. The 2020 election could change America for generations to come.

Gavin Esler is a broadcaster and UK columnist for The National

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”