If you know any 48-year-old white American males without a college education, maybe say something nice to them. They are in a group which is having a hard time. That broadly is the conclusion of a hugely informative study by two academics, David Blanchflower and Andrew Oswald entitled Trends in Extreme Distress in the United States 1993-2019.
This "extreme distress" is something Donald Trump touched upon last week in his final presidential debate with Joe Biden, when he spoke of the opioid crisis, alcoholism, and suicides affecting many families across the US – including, as it happens, the families of both presidential candidates.
The Blanchflower-Oswald research is based on data of 8.1 million randomly sampled US citizens. As the authors put it, the figures reveal “a sense of exceptional bleakness of life” resulting in “increasing numbers of deaths of despair among midlife white US persons with low levels of educational attainment.”
This has been attributed to those who are so unhappy with their lives that “they have reacted by committing suicide and taking dangerous quantities of opioids and alcohol.” By “extreme distress” the authors mean that these unhappy people say to themselves “every day of my life is a bad day” for 30 days in a row.
Like the imagined 48-year-old I mentioned earlier, the numbers of middle aged white American men repeatedly having “bad days” rose from five per cent in 1993 to 11 per cent in 2019 – more than doubling. So what is going on?
In their public speeches Mr Biden points the finger at Mr Trump, and Mr Trump points at Mr Biden. The truth is that this unhappiness rose through the Democratic presidencies of Clinton and Obama, as well as the Republican presidencies of George W Bush and Mr Trump himself.
Reminiscences of the America of the 1950s and 1960s will not fix the America of the 2020s
The study’s authors suggest something much more fundamental than the day-to-day politics of whichever party is in the White House. It is a profound and irreversible change to the jobs market in the US and worldwide.
The authors say that the strongest statistical predictor of extreme distress is when someone says "I am unable to work," connected to what appears to be the irreversible decline in manufacturing jobs. Bruce Springsteen's elegy to the decline of "Rust Belt" America, "My Hometown," dates from the 1980s.
It is a lament for lost steel and car plant jobs and ultimately the death of the postwar American dream, in which Springsteen’s foreman says that the jobs “are going, boys / And they ain’t coming back.”
He was prophetic. One consequence, apparently, is that by 2019, opioid deaths in the US reached 50,000 for the first time, according to provisional data from the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention. That accounted for more than two thirds of the 71,000 fatal overdoses in the US from all drugs.
During the presidential election campaign Covid-19 and race relations have been two of the most obvious hot button issues, but the research suggests that for many manual workers – whose parents and grandparents had well-paying jobs in manufacturing – in their “hometowns,” the American dream is dead or dying.
In Mr Trump’s case he has in the past been protective of yesterday’s industries – coal, old fashioned steel and car plants relying on the internal combustion engine.
The challenge for whoever wins the 2020 election is a challenge for leaders all over the world. Artificial intelligence, climate change, online remote working and even coronavirus, have changed the way we live and also the way we work. Populism is often backward looking.
Mr Trump’s famous slogan “Make America Great Again” is a perfect example. It brilliantly captured the distress of those whose pain shines through the Blanchflower-Oswald study and who believe their parents and grandparents did better. But reminiscences of the America of the 1950s and 1960s will not fix the America of the 2020s. High-paying employers are those that demand exceptional skills from workers.
Mostly that means a college education for good jobs with Apple, Google and Silicon Valley start-ups. The alternative economy – that of Uber and Amazon – is generally of the low skill, low paid variety.
The middle America of the once great middle class of skilled craftsmen and women has been squeezed for years. The consequent unhappiness will not be solved by one vote this November, but it might at least be recognised.
The American pollster Frank Luntz has worked with Republican candidates for decades. In 2016, Luntz says, millions of voters turned to Mr Trump because they thought Hillary Clinton was interested only in herself, not them. Mr Trump in 2016 convinced them he understood the lives of ordinary people.
But in 2020, Mr Trump is seen as the one who is utterly self-absorbed. Joe Biden says that this election is not about the Biden family or Trump’s family. “It’s about your family,” he repeatedly tells voters.
If Mr Biden’s message cuts through, it will be because for many Americans 2020 is just one miserable year in three unhappy decades. The jobs “ain’t coming back.” The 2020 winner will deliver hope for an America desperate for change.
Gavin Esler is a broadcaster and UK columnist for The National
Key products and UAE prices
iPhone XS
With a 5.8-inch screen, it will be an advance version of the iPhone X. It will be dual sim and comes with better battery life, a faster processor and better camera. A new gold colour will be available.
Price: Dh4,229
iPhone XS Max
It is expected to be a grander version of the iPhone X with a 6.5-inch screen; an inch bigger than the screen of the iPhone 8 Plus.
Price: Dh4,649
iPhone XR
A low-cost version of the iPhone X with a 6.1-inch screen, it is expected to attract mass attention. According to industry experts, it is likely to have aluminium edges instead of stainless steel.
Price: Dh3,179
Apple Watch Series 4
More comprehensive health device with edge-to-edge displays that are more than 30 per cent bigger than displays on current models.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
MATCH INFO
Barcelona 4 (Suarez 27', Vidal 32', Dembele 35', Messi 78')
Sevilla 0
Red cards: Ronald Araujo, Ousmane Dembele (Barcelona)
Ammar 808:
Maghreb United
Sofyann Ben Youssef
Glitterbeat
Profile of Hala Insurance
Date Started: September 2018
Founders: Walid and Karim Dib
Based: Abu Dhabi
Employees: Nine
Amount raised: $1.2 million
Funders: Oman Technology Fund, AB Accelerator, 500 Startups, private backers
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Top goalscorers in Europe
34 goals - Robert Lewandowski (68 points)
34 - Ciro Immobile (68)
31 - Cristiano Ronaldo (62)
28 - Timo Werner (56)
25 - Lionel Messi (50)
*29 - Erling Haaland (50)
23 - Romelu Lukaku (46)
23 - Jamie Vardy (46)
*NOTE: Haaland's goals for Salzburg count for 1.5 points per goal. Goals for Dortmund count for two points per goal.
GIANT REVIEW
Starring: Amir El-Masry, Pierce Brosnan
Director: Athale
Rating: 4/5
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
RESULTS
Lightweight (female)
Sara El Bakkali bt Anisha Kadka
Bantamweight
Mohammed Adil Al Debi bt Moaz Abdelgawad
Welterweight
Amir Boureslan bt Mahmoud Zanouny
Featherweight
Mohammed Al Katheeri bt Abrorbek Madaminbekov
Super featherweight
Ibrahem Bilal bt Emad Arafa
Middleweight
Ahmed Abdolaziz bt Imad Essassi
Bantamweight (female)
Ilham Bourakkadi bt Milena Martinou
Welterweight
Mohamed Mardi bt Noureddine El Agouti
Middleweight
Nabil Ouach bt Ymad Atrous
Welterweight
Nouredine Samir bt Marlon Ribeiro
Super welterweight
Brad Stanton bt Mohamed El Boukhari
