US President Donald Trump and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a news conference in Washington last year. The two countries could resolve some long-standing issues in the coming days. AFP
US President Donald Trump and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a news conference in Washington last year. The two countries could resolve some long-standing issues in the coming days. AFP
US President Donald Trump and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a news conference in Washington last year. The two countries could resolve some long-standing issues in the coming day
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is betting on a determination on the part of the US to preserve his country’s membership in Nato and to persuade it to resist Russia’s attempts to disorient the security alliance through its sale of the S-400 anti-aircraft missile system to Ankara. Mr Erdogan is making audacious moves with regard to Libya, Greece, Syria and Iraq, ignoring the European powers, challenging Arab nations on their home turf and ruling Turkey unchallenged.
In Iran, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are betting on support from Russia and China as strategic partners against the US, as they seek to expand their influence in the Middle East. Tehran is also relying on its proxies and allies embedded in the Arab countries to do so.
Leaders of some Arab countries, therefore, are looking for ways to secure their positions in the regional balance of power. Others, meanwhile, are using their own peoples as pawns for the regional and global powers to exploit. All this puts the Middle East and the adjoining Mediterranean Basin in a delicate and potentially dangerous situation.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan takes part in a video conference with Turkish drilling vessel 'Fatih' before announcing the biggest natural gas discovery in history, in Istanbul, Turkey. EPA
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan takes part in a video conference with Turkish drilling vessel 'Fatih' before announcing the biggest natural gas discovery in history, in Istanbul, Turkey. EPA
Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak and Energy Minister Fatih Donmez pose with members of Turkish Petroleum (TPAO) on the deck of drilling vessel Fatih in the western Black Sea, off Turkey. REUTERS
Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak and Energy Minister Fatih Donmez pose on the deck of drilling vessel 'Fatih' in the western Black Sea, off Turkey. Reuters
The Turkish drilling ship, 'Fatih', had been carrying out exploration operations in the Tuna-1 sector in the western Black Sea for the past month. Reuters
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the natural gas reserve, at 320 billion cubic metres, is the biggest in Turkish history. EPA
Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan addresses the nation. Reuters
Turkey aims to bring the find to use in 2023 and to become a net energy exporter, Mr Erdogan said. EPA
The announcement comes as tensions between Turkey and Greece, and EU nations, are running high over oil and gas exploration in disputed waters in the eastern Mediterranean. Reuters
Mr Erdogan listens to Finance Minister Berat Albayrak and Energy Minister Fatih Donmez on a live video feed about the find. Reuters
People watch the TV at a coffee house while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announces the biggest natural gas discovery in history in Istanbul, Turkey. EPA
People watch the at a cafe TV while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announces the biggest natural gas discovery in history in Istanbul, Turkey. EPA
Turkey's bittersweet relations with Russia is a subject of scrutiny in the West.
I am given to understand that talks are under way between Washington and Ankara to resolve the controversy surrounding the sale of the S-400 system. The US could offer to acquire the system from Turkey, in return for which Ankara would be readmitted into Washington's F-35 programme. Moscow has supposedly already received around $800 million in payments for the S-400 from Ankara. But despite the financial gain, Russia's loss could be a strategic one, should the US-Turkey deal come through.
It is important to remember that Nato was formed as a multinational defence alliance against the erstwhile Soviet Union. While the alliance may not wield the clout it once did, Moscow will have been eager to breach it by drawing Ankara closer. But quite the opposite seems to be happening.
Indeed, for a variety of reasons, Turkey-Russia relations have experienced headwinds in recent times, starting with the ongoing conflicts in Syria and Libya, where they support opposinggroups battling each other for primacy in the respective countries. Turkey's gas imports from Russia have been at their lowest since March, despite Moscow's heavy investment in building the Blue Stream gas pipelines.
In this context, therefore, attempts to preserve Turkey's place in Nato – despite its misgivings with France over its actions in Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean – could amount to a temporary setback for Russia while giving the US a win over its old adversary.
The Kremlin knows this, of course. And it is – as are all of Ankara’s neighbours – watching the Mediterranean stand-off over resources between Turkey and its Nato ally Greece. A military confrontation cannot be ruled out, which would almost certainly end any hopes Ankara might still have of joining the European Union. It is, therefore, for good reason that Nato is trying to de-escalate tensions.
Whatever the direct consequences of Turkey's behaviour, Russia has during this time moved Iran closer to it.
During his recent visit to Moscow, Iran's Defence Minister Amir Hatami declared that the end of the arms embargo on his country – thanks in part to Russia's influence in the UN Security Council – would herald a new chapter in defence co-operation between the two countries. General Hatami said: "We have the Russian-made S-200 and S-300 systems. We must hold talks on the S-400 to reach an agreement."
This then begs the question as to why Moscow would strike a deal with Tehran, which is adversarial towards its own allies in the Gulf. There are a few reasons.
Iranian army soldiers wearing protective face masks parade with disinfection equipment to mark National Army Day in Tehran on April 17, 2020. Iranian military via EPA, HO
Iran did not hold a main ceremony on its annual National Army Day due to the coronavirus crises in the country. Iranian military via EPA, HO
Iran is one of the most impacted countries by the pandemic with over 5,000 reported deaths. Iranian military via EPA, HO
Iran’s parliament has suggested that the true toll of the virus may in fact be double the official numbers. Iranian military via EPA, HO
The military has been deployed in the mass national sterilisation programme and to aid the domestic civilian administrations handle the crisis. Iranian military via EPA, HO
Soldiers wearing protective face masks as they parade amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Iranian military via EPA, HO
Iran is one of the most effected countries by the pandemic with over 5,000 reported deaths. Iranian military via EPA, HO
Soldiers wearing protective face masks as they parade amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Iranian military via EPA, HO
First, Russia is keen to flex its muscles against the US, which over the past few months had attempted to extend the arms embargo against Iran. Second, access for Russia's military-industrial complex to the Iranian market would compensate for the ongoing cooling of Moscow-Ankara relations. According to experts I have spoken to, the Iranian market might be worth between $2-4 billion annually, which could offset losses from potential US sanctions. Nonetheless, Moscow will exercise caution for fear of inviting economic sanctions from Washington.
It is, meanwhile, seeking to balance its interests between Iran and the Gulf states – although it has managed to compartmentalise them. For example, it is allied with Iran over the future of Syria and Lebanon. But it has in Egypt, which is an ally of the Gulf states, an important strategic partner in Libyan conflict.
What Washington seems to be working towards is the ending of this compartmentalisation by trying to persuade its Arab allies to join its efforts in preventing Russia and China from supplying weapons to Iran.
It was a message that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo carried with him to the region last week. That the timing of his visit coincided with the Republican National Convention, where Mr Trump was formally anointed his party's candidate in November's US presidential election, shows the importance that the administration gives to the Iranian question. The visit also lays to rest the assumption that America is absent from the Middle East due to the Trump administration's preoccupation with the election.
While the terrifying developments in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon may suggest that Iran and its proxies have secured winning alliances with Russia and China, the US is not asleep at the wheel – as some might assume. Given its economic heft, even Moscow and Beijing will tread carefully, especially if Washington decides to impose sanctions on them all the while convincing its friends that any deal with Tehran will prove detrimental to Middle East security.
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute
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All matches at the Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Test series
1st Test: Zimbabwe beat Afghanistan by 10 wickets
2nd Test: Wednesday, 10 March – Sunday, 14 March
Play starts at 9.30am
T20 series
1st T20I: Wednesday, 17 March
2nd T20I: Friday, 19 March
3rd T20I: Saturday, 20 March
TV
Supporters in the UAE can watch the matches on the Rabbithole channel on YouTube
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Sarfraz Ahmed (captain), Fakhar Zaman, Ahmed Shahzad, Babar Azam, Shoaib Malik, Mohammed Hafeez, Imad Wasim, Shadab Khan, Mohammed Nawaz, Faheem Ashraf, Hasan Ali, Amir Yamin, Mohammed Amir (subject to fitness clearance), Rumman Raees, Usman Shinwari, Umar Amin
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Ali Kasheif, Salim Rashid, Khalifa Al Hammadi, Khalfan Mubarak, Ali Mabkhout, Omar Abdulrahman, Mohammed Al Attas, Abdullah Ramadan, Zayed Al Ameri (Al Jazira), Mohammed Al Shamsi, Hamdan Al Kamali, Mohammed Barghash, Khalil Al Hammadi (Al Wahda), Khalid Essa, Mohammed Shaker, Ahmed Barman, Bandar Al Ahbabi (Al Ain), Al Hassan Saleh, Majid Suroor (Sharjah) Walid Abbas, Ahmed Khalil (Shabab Al Ahli), Tariq Ahmed, Jasim Yaqoub (Al Nasr), Ali Saleh, Ali Salmeen (Al Wasl), Hassan Al Muharami (Baniyas)
BRIEF SCORES
England 353 and 313-8 dec
(B Stokes 112, A Cook 88; M Morkel 3-70, K Rabada 3-85)
(J Bairstow 63, T Westley 59, J Root 50; K Maharaj 3-50) South Africa 175 and 252
(T Bavuma 52; T Roland-Jones 5-57, J Anderson 3-25)
(D Elgar 136; M Ali 4-45, T Roland-Jones 3-72)
Result: England won by 239 runs
England lead four-match series 2-1
The biog
Name: Salvador Toriano Jr
Age: 59
From: Laguna, The Philippines
Favourite dish: Seabass or Fish and Chips
Hobbies: When he’s not in the restaurant, he still likes to cook, along with walking and meeting up with friends.
