What will US engagement in the Middle East look like under President Joe Biden? This is a question that has been ruminated on since last summer, when the idea of the former vice president potentially succeeding Donald Trump in the White House was first being considered as a reality.
In recent weeks, an answer has been crystallising.
The Biden administration has set bold targets, seeking in particular to tackle three massive issues: the climate emergency, the Covid-19 pandemic and creating millions of jobs for Americans.
Alongside these high-priority policy goals has been a decision to pull US troops out of Afghanistan, reconfigure the American military role in Iraq and a move to begin negotiations for a new nuclear deal with Iran. All three have ramifications for the Middle East’s security and stability.
Taken together, at first glance, these developments might be seen as the fruition of a scenario that most worried policymakers a year ago when they first contemplated Mr Biden as President – that US engagement in the region would begin to diminish in favour of other priorities.
It might be obvious to many, but it is worth restating that America’s continued interest in the affairs of the Middle East is of immense significance. Beyond the security parameters that might most concern various governments, the people living in the region do care about what the US does here.
For example, young Arabs have strong views about it. The Arab Youth Survey 2020 found that 56 per cent of 18-to-24-year-olds saw America as an ally – up from 35 per cent in 2018. However, 43 per cent of respondents describe it as an enemy.
This contradiction does nothing to undermine the idea that the US’s attitude and actions in the Middle East will continue to be under intense scrutiny.
Such survey results also reflect the multi-faceted nature of the world’s largest economy, still the leading military, technological and diplomatic power today.
Equally, when discussing what US engagement looks like, we must also be willing to explore more complex notions of how it might manifest. It cannot simply be that the scale of American military assets or boots on the ground will determine how much focus Mr Biden gives the region.
Of course, such criteria are still very important, as we continue to see in Iraq, but it is also an old-fashioned metric, an overhang from the new world order after the Second World War.
As Secretary of State Antony Blinken took great pains to say amid the worried reaction to the announcement of a withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan by September 11, the nature of risks being faced have changed and so the response to them must similarly evolve, even as he insisted that overall levels of engagement would continue to be high.
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US Marines on the frontlines of a US Marine Corps base, near a cardboard sign reminding everyone that Taliban forces could be anywhere, in southern Afghanistan, December 1, 2001. Reuters -
Afghan Army soldiers break the fast at their military base, during Ramadan, amid the coronavirus pandemic in Herat, Afghanistan, April 17. EPA -
A man waits for customers at his shop in Kandahar, Afghanistan, April 15. EPA -
Afghan security officials pat down vistors at a roadside checkpoint in Helmand, Afghanistan, April 15. EPA -
Children collect recycleable waste to be sold for a living, in Jalalabad, Afghanistan, April 15. EPA -
An Afghan man who was injured in a bomb blast, receives medical treatment at a hospital in Arghandab district of Kandahar, Afghanistan, April 15. EPA -
A US Army soldier near Command Outpost Pa'in Kalay in Maiwand District, Kandahar Province, Afghanistan, February 3, 2013. Reuters -
A shoe polisher boy holds an umbrella as he waits for customers under graffiti on a wall in Kabul, Afghanistan April 15. Reuters -
Captain Melvin Cabebe with the US Army's 1-320 Field Artillery Regiment, 101st Airborne Division stands near a burning M-ATV armored vehicle after it struck an improvised explosive device near Combat Outpost Nolen in the Arghandab Valley north of Kandahar, Afghanistan, July 23, 2010. Reuters -
Youths take pictures near an Afghan flag on a hilltop overlooking Kabul, Afghanistan, April 15. Reuters -
Two Northern Alliance soldiers watch as dust and smoke rise after explosions at Taliban positions on Kalakata hill, near the village of Ai Khanum in northern Afghanistan, November 1, 2001. Reuters -
Afghan policemen stand next to a captured Taliban fighter after a gun battle near the village of Shajoy in Zabol province, Afghanistan March 22, 2008. Reuters -
US Marine Lance Corporal Chris Sanderson, from Flemington, New Jersey shouts as he tries to protect an Afghan man and his child after Taliban fighters opened fire in the town of Marjah, in Nad Ali district, Helmand province, Afghanistan, February 13, 2010. Reuters -
Ryan Lemm salutes the casket of his father, NYPD officer Joseph Lemm, who was killed on duty in Afghanistan. New York, US, December 30, 2015. Reuters -
A US soldier of 2-12 Infantry 4BCT-4ID Task Force Mountain Warrior takes a break during a night mission near Honaker Miracle camp at the Pesh valley of Kunar Province, Afghanistan, August 12, 2009. Reuters -
US soldier Nicholas Dickhut, from 5-20 infantry Regiment, attached to 82nd Airborne, points his rifle at a doorway after coming under fire by the Taliban while on patrol in Zharay district in Kandahar province, Afghanistan April 26, 2012. Reuters -
Sgt William Olas Bee, a US Marine from the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit, has a close call after Taliban fighters opened fire near Garmsir in Helmand Province of Afghanistan, May 18, 2008. Reuters -
Lesleigh Coyer, of Saginaw, Michigan, lies down in front of the grave of her brother, Ryan Coyer, who served with the US Army in both Iraq and Afghanistan, at Arlington National Cemetery in Virginia, US, March 11, 2013. Reuters -
US President Joe Biden walks through Arlington National cemetary to honour fallen veterans of the Afghan conflict in Arlington, Virginia on April 14. AFP
Likewise, in Iraq, the ambition is to move away from a combat role, but there seems no desire by Washington to let go completely of its support for the country.
In any case, by making climate change, the pandemic and the economy his main areas of focus, Mr Biden has made a commitment to a global outlook knowing that there cannot be an exclusively American solution for any of them.
For example, he is hosting an online climate summit on Thursday with 40 world leaders as the US takes the lead on action on climate change. Among them are representatives from countries in the Middle East, which is as much on the front lines of climate impact as anywhere else.
In terms of the coronavirus pandemic, it is understood by the Biden administration that mitigating the risk of “catastrophic biological threats” requires acknowledging “our interconnected world”. There will be dialogue with all nations in this regard, including in the Middle East.
Also, to pay for his $2 trillion jobs plan, Mr Biden is tackling corporate tax rates globally. His treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, has said, "We will fare better if we work together and support each other." To be effective, there cannot be any outlier nations that allow companies the opportunity to undermine Mr Biden's goals on this front. Extensive negotiations will be needed and the Middle East will have an important role to play.
To make a success of all of his plans, the US will need the support of America's allies in the region as much as elsewhere. To this point, the special envoy on climate John Kerry was in Abu Dhabi recently for a regional dialogue where 11 countries pledged to ensure the success of the 2015 Paris Agreement.
Yet, it is not just climate change on which the US will continue to engage actively with the Middle East. Economic and investment ties remain critical.
If we view the relationship between the US and this region only through the prism of security, then we will lose sight of some of the risks facing all of us, whether it be climate change or future pandemics.
US engagement is needed on all fronts to help the region to meet such crises, and ensuring stability while we tackle such issues will remain paramount. Whether US troops are here or not will be prove to be largely immaterial.
As US foreign policy adapts under Mr Biden, engagement with the Middle East will look different and feel different, but it will likely still be productive.
Mustafa Alrawi is an assistant editor-in-chief at The National
