We are only a few days into 2019, and already the US administration is sending confusing signals about its approach to some of the main issues it is likely to encounter during the course of the year.
By far the most startling development has been President Donald Trump's announcement over the festive break that he intends to withdraw the 2,000 troops Washington still has deployed in Syria.
While the military campaign against ISIS is drawing to a close, many of the issues relating to Syria’s long-running civil war still remain unresolved, not least the fate of the Kurdish fighters who have been loyal and effective allies of the US-led coalition. Without US protection, there are well-founded fears the Kurds could find themselves either targeted by Turkey, which remains concerned about the formation of an independent Kurdish homeland, or the Assad regime, which remains committed to reclaiming all Syrian territory under its control.
But, as Mr Trump made clear during a 95-minute cabinet meeting at the White House earlier this week, the president believes that Syria is “lost” so far as Washington is concerned, and that the time has come for the White House to cut its losses by withdrawing American forces over a “period of time”.
Ever since entering the White House, Mr Trump has said he has little appetite for committing US forces to costly and difficult overseas military interventions, unless it is absolutely in America’s national interest to do so.
Consequently, his hard-nosed approach to America's foreign military entanglements has also led to questions being raised about Washington's continuing commitment to the conflict in Afghanistan, where the US still has around 14,000 troops fighting in support of the Afghan government. The president's announcement that he intends to cut the American force by 7,000 by the summer is said to be the main reason behind the resignation of the much-respected defence secretary Jim Mattis.
Mr Trump is now claiming that he “essentially fired” Mr Mattis, who was keen to maintain American troops levels in Afghanistan at their current level, because the president believes his former defence secretary’s handling of the Afghan mission had not been “too good”.
But while Mr Trump’s announcements concerning Syria and Afghanistan might give the impression that his main focus is to scale down America’s military involvement in the Middle East and Central Asia, his surprise visit to US forces in Iraq over Christmas suggested that, in other parts of the region, the president remains committed to maintaining America’s military presence.
Ostensibly, the president’s visit to the Al Asad air base to the west of Baghdad was to give his personal thanks to the estimated 4,000 troops based in Iraq who have been involved in the fight to destroy ISIS.
“Two years ago, when I became president, they were a very dominant group,” Mr Trump declared. “Today they're not so dominant any more. Great job."
Mr Trump also said that, despite his announcements regarding Syria and Afghanistan, he had no intention of withdrawing American forces from Iraq. He even suggested that the US could use its military presence in Iraq as a forward base if it "wanted to do something in Syria".
The other reason, though, that Mr Trump is so keen to maintain Washington's military engagement with Iraq is that maintaining good relations with Baghdad is vital to his administration's wider goal of confronting Iran over its continued meddling in the affairs of the Arab world.
If Washington is to stand any chance of increasing the pressure on Tehran to change its behaviour, then having a strong alliance with Iraq is vital to its chances of success.
And on this front, the White House still has much work to do.
The recent appointment of Adel Abdul Mahdi as Iraq’s new prime minister has certainly been a welcome development so far as Washington is concerned, as he is regarded as a pragmatist who will resist Iran’s attempts to dominate Iraq’s domestic political agenda.
But the fact that a planned meeting between Mr Trump and Mr Mahdi had to be cancelled because of disagreements over how it should be conducted suggests the White House still has a lot of work to do before a good working relationship is established between Baghdad and Washington.
There will also be many, both in Washington and elsewhere, who will question why, if the president is really serious about confronting Iran, he is preparing to withdraw American forces from Syria, a country that remains Tehran’s most important ally in the Arab world?
The answer lies in the reality of the situation on the ground where, because of key foreign policy mistakes dating back to the Obama era, the dominant foreign powers in Syria today are Russia and Iran, with the Americans being confined to the perimeters of the conflict.
The days when Washington policymakers still clung to the notion that the Assad regime could be overthrown are long gone and, with the main military campaign against Isis drawing to a close, Mr Trump’s desire to end Washington’s unhappy involvement in the Syrian conflict is understandable.
But Mr Trump also needs to be aware that, if his main priority in the Middle East is to confront Iran, turning his back on Syria could make that task a great deal more difficult. Now that Tehran has achieved its main objective of keeping the Assad regime in power, it is looking to consolidate its military presence in Syria, one that in future might be used to undermine American efforts to challenge Iran.
Con Coughlin is the Daily Telegraph’s Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor
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Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
Not Dark Yet
Shelby Lynne and Allison Moorer
Four stars
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The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
- The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
- US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
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Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Dunki
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Xpanceo
Started: 2018
Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality
Funding: $40 million
Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)
The UAE's journey to space
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MATCH INFO
Barcelona 5 (Lenglet 2', Vidal 29', Messi 34', 75', Suarez 77')
Valladolid 1 (Kiko 15')
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The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Friday
Granada v Real Betis (9.30pm)
Valencia v Levante (midnight)
Saturday
Espanyol v Alaves (4pm)
Celta Vigo v Villarreal (7pm)
Leganes v Real Valladolid (9.30pm)
Mallorca v Barcelona (midnight)
Sunday
Atletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid (4pm)
Real Madrid v Eibar (9.30pm)
Real Sociedad v Osasuna (midnight)
What are the GCSE grade equivalents?
- Grade 9 = above an A*
- Grade 8 = between grades A* and A
- Grade 7 = grade A
- Grade 6 = just above a grade B
- Grade 5 = between grades B and C
- Grade 4 = grade C
- Grade 3 = between grades D and E
- Grade 2 = between grades E and F
- Grade 1 = between grades F and G
Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
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The Year Earth Changed
Directed by:Tom Beard
Narrated by: Sir David Attenborough
Stars: 4
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If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
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The Pope's itinerary
Sunday, February 3, 2019 - Rome to Abu Dhabi
1pm: departure by plane from Rome / Fiumicino to Abu Dhabi
10pm: arrival at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
Monday, February 4
12pm: welcome ceremony at the main entrance of the Presidential Palace
12.20pm: visit Abu Dhabi Crown Prince at Presidential Palace
5pm: private meeting with Muslim Council of Elders at Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque
6.10pm: Inter-religious in the Founder's Memorial
Tuesday, February 5 - Abu Dhabi to Rome
9.15am: private visit to undisclosed cathedral
10.30am: public mass at Zayed Sports City – with a homily by Pope Francis
12.40pm: farewell at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
1pm: departure by plane to Rome
5pm: arrival at the Rome / Ciampino International Airport