Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at a pre-election rally in Sarajevo. Dado Ruvic / Reuters
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at a pre-election rally in Sarajevo. Dado Ruvic / Reuters

Turkey's growing influence in the Balkans has profound implications for the Middle East



In the middle of May, leaders of six Balkan nations made the short trip to Sofia in Bulgaria to meet the heads of every European Union country. The six – Albania, Bosnia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia – are all hoping to join the bloc at some point but the EU has repeatedly put off accession talks. The summit in Sofia was the first time for 15 years that such a meeting had taken place and it ended in disappointment.

Three days later, another suitor went to the Balkans and he went bearing gifts. Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, seeking re-election at the end of this month, held a campaign rally in the Bosnian capital Sarajevo, drawing thousands of Turkish citizens from neighbouring countries.

He did not go empty-handed. While there, his government agreed to fund a $3.5 billion highway connecting the capital cities of Bosnia and neighbouring Serbia.

It is not only Bosnia and Serbia that have benefited from Turkey's investment largesse. Airports in Kosovo, banks in Albania, factories in Macedonia and roads, schools and mosques across the region are owned by or have been built with Turkish money. Not a single one of the six Balkan countries that went to meet EU leaders has not been courted by Ankara.

That investment, along with Ottoman-era links and a feeling of disenchantment with a Europe that is keen to keep its doors closed, is buying Turkey a lot of influence in the Balkans and that influence, in turn, buys more leverage with the European Union – which gives Turkey even more freedom to conduct its foreign policy in the Middle East without impediment.

Turkey’s burgeoning investment and concomitant soft power has not gone unnoticed. Weeks before the EU summit, France’s Emmanuel Macron told the European Parliament he did not want “a Balkans that turns toward Turkey or Russia” but went on to suggest the EU needed serious reform before those countries could join.

Apparent proof of this influence happened at the end of March, when six Turkish nationals were arrested in Kosovo and immediately deported home, where they were wanted in connection with the 2016 coup that Turkey has blamed on the Gulen movement.

It was the sort of story that barely merits a mention in the international press but the diplomatic fallout was serious: so incensed was the Kosovan prime minister by the arrests that he fired both the interior minister and the head of the secret service before calling Brussels and Washington to apologise and explain. Within the EU, it was seen as the direct consequence of Turkey’s expanding ties with a Balkan country placing Turkish priorities ahead of the rule of law and EU interests.

The difficulty for the EU is that is does not know how to counter Turkey's influence. The EU summit was an attempt to make peace with the six and draw them back into Europe's orbit but the truth is that the EU, with one of its biggest members leaving and facing rising nationalism, cannot do much. The summit could not even agree to let two of the countries open talks, much less set a date for those talks. Fifteen years ago, the EU declared "the future of the Balkans is within the EU". Now even that aspiration is too much.

The Balkan countries are still outwardly committed to joining the EU. But in Turkey – despite serious historic disagreements – they have found an ally. Ankara, after all, is on the same path, reforming with the promise of joining the European Union, enduring high-handed lectures from Europeans, even as the possibility of membership seems to recede into the distance. When Mr Erdogan speaks, it is with the authority of a brother country that has endured the same humiliations as the Balkans but has met the EU from a position of strength.

Seen from the Middle East, Turkey's increased interests in the Balkans can appear merely part of the usual geopolitical contest for influence. But what happens in the Balkans has profound implications for the Middle East.

The influence that Turkey gains in the Balkans gives it greater leverage with the European Union – and thus weakens Europe’s leverage over Turkey’s policy in other areas, such as in Syria.

Recall that, in 2015, during the peak of the migrant flows out of Syria into Europe, it was via Turkey and then through the western Balkans that the majority travelled. Turkey's influence in that region has vast security implications for Europe, especially as long as the Syrian civil war rages.

So interconnected is the region that Europe may be more willing to give Turkey a free hand in Syria to avoid Ankara stirring up trouble in the Balkans. With so many outside powers jockeying for position inside Syrian territory, any extra leverage that a player such as Turkey can gain will help. Mr Erdogan is certainly betting that the gifts he bears to Bosnia will come back to him via Syria.

The National's picks

4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young

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Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
At a glance

Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.

 

Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year

 

Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month

 

Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30 

 

Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse

 

Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth

 

Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances

The Sand Castle

Director: Matty Brown

Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea

Rating: 2.5/5

World Cup League Two

Results

Oman beat Nepal by 18 runs

Oman beat United States by six wickets

Nepal beat United States by 35 runs

Oman beat Nepal by eight wickets

 

Fixtures

Tuesday, Oman v United States

Wednesday, Nepal v United States

 

The Land between Two Rivers: Writing in an Age of Refugees
Tom Sleigh, Graywolf Press

Real estate tokenisation project

Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.

The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.

Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.

NO OTHER LAND

Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal

Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham

Rating: 3.5/5

Our legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

Company%20Profile
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Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
How to improve Arabic reading in early years

One 45-minute class per week in Standard Arabic is not sufficient

The goal should be for grade 1 and 2 students to become fluent readers

Subjects like technology, social studies, science can be taught in later grades

Grade 1 curricula should include oral instruction in Standard Arabic

First graders must regularly practice individual letters and combinations

Time should be slotted in class to read longer passages in early grades

Improve the appearance of textbooks

Revision of curriculum should be undertaken as per research findings

Conjugations of most common verb forms should be taught

Systematic learning of Standard Arabic grammar

Our legal consultant

Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

Dr Amal Khalid Alias revealed a recent case of a woman with daughters, who specifically wanted a boy.

A semen analysis of the father showed abnormal sperm so the couple required IVF.

Out of 21 eggs collected, six were unused leaving 15 suitable for IVF.

A specific procedure was used, called intracytoplasmic sperm injection where a single sperm cell is inserted into the egg.

On day three of the process, 14 embryos were biopsied for gender selection.

The next day, a pre-implantation genetic report revealed four normal male embryos, three female and seven abnormal samples.

Day five of the treatment saw two male embryos transferred to the patient.

The woman recorded a positive pregnancy test two weeks later. 

The specs

Engine: 1.5-litre turbo

Power: 181hp

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Transmission: 6-speed automatic

Starting price: Dh79,000

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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe

Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010

Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille

Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm

Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year

Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”

Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners

TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013 

Volvo ES90 Specs

Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)

Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp

Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm

On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region

Price: Exact regional pricing TBA

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The smuggler

Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple. 
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.

Khouli conviction

Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.

For sale

A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.

- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico

- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000

- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950

57%20Seconds
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Skewed figures

In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458. 

BIOSAFETY LABS SECURITY LEVELS

Biosafety Level 1

The lowest safety level. These labs work with viruses that are minimal risk to humans.

Hand washing is required on entry and exit and potentially infectious material decontaminated with bleach before thrown away.

Must have a lock. Access limited. Lab does not need to be isolated from other buildings.

Used as teaching spaces.

Study microorganisms such as Staphylococcus which causes food poisoning.

Biosafety Level 2

These labs deal with pathogens that can be harmful to people and the environment such as Hepatitis, HIV and salmonella.

Working in Level 2 requires special training in handling pathogenic agents.

Extra safety and security precautions are taken in addition to those at Level 1

Biosafety Level 3

These labs contain material that can be lethal if inhaled. This includes SARS coronavirus, MERS, and yellow fever.

Significant extra precautions are taken with staff given specific immunisations when dealing with certain diseases.

Infectious material is examined in a biological safety cabinet.

Personnel must wear protective gowns that must be discarded or decontaminated after use.

Strict safety and handling procedures are in place. There must be double entrances to the building and they must contain self-closing doors to reduce risk of pathogen aerosols escaping.

Windows must be sealed. Air from must be filtered before it can be recirculated.

Biosafety Level 4

The highest level for biosafety precautions. Scientist work with highly dangerous diseases that have no vaccine or cure.

All material must be decontaminated.

Personnel must wear a positive pressure suit for protection. On leaving the lab this must pass through decontamination shower before they have a personal shower.

Entry is severely restricted to trained and authorised personnel. All entries are recorded.

Entrance must be via airlocks.

Timeline

1947
Ferrari’s road-car company is formed and its first badged car, the 125 S, rolls off the assembly line

1962
250 GTO is unveiled

1969
Fiat becomes a Ferrari shareholder, acquiring 50 per cent of the company

1972
The Fiorano circuit, Ferrari’s racetrack for development and testing, opens

1976
First automatic Ferrari, the 400 Automatic, is made

1987
F40 launched

1988
Enzo Ferrari dies; Fiat expands its stake in the company to 90 per cent

2002
The Enzo model is announced

2010
Ferrari World opens in Abu Dhabi

2011
First four-wheel drive Ferrari, the FF, is unveiled

2013
LaFerrari, the first Ferrari hybrid, arrives

2014
Fiat Chrysler announces the split of Ferrari from the parent company

2015
Ferrari launches on Wall Street

2017
812 Superfast unveiled; Ferrari celebrates its 70th anniversary

How much sugar is in chocolate Easter eggs?
  • The 169g Crunchie egg has 15.9g of sugar per 25g serving, working out at around 107g of sugar per egg
  • The 190g Maltesers Teasers egg contains 58g of sugar per 100g for the egg and 19.6g of sugar in each of the two Teasers bars that come with it
  • The 188g Smarties egg has 113g of sugar per egg and 22.8g in the tube of Smarties it contains
  • The Milky Bar white chocolate Egg Hunt Pack contains eight eggs at 7.7g of sugar per egg
  • The Cadbury Creme Egg contains 26g of sugar per 40g egg
The specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl, 48V hybrid

Transmission: eight-speed automatic

Power: 325bhp

Torque: 450Nm

Price: Dh359,000

On sale: now