In the second week of November 2020, the world welcomed news of two vaccines for Covid-19 that promise over 95 per cent effectiveness. People breathed a sigh of relief. Suddenly, there was hope. Global equity markets moved up, and CEOs started offering their predictions of when life will go back to normal.
While the vaccines are certainly welcome news, the pandemic is, unfortunately, far from over and its economic impact will stay with us throughout 2021 and beyond. The fallout will long outlive the immediate health crisis. In the words of Winston Churchill during the Second World War, “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”
Governments, businesses and individuals are learning to accept that there might not be a return to the “2019 normal”. We are entering uncharted territory and will witness the emergence of the “post-2020 normal”.
In 2019, the world was watching three mega-trends shaping our future: climate change and the growing stress on our planet’s resources, the technological and biological revolution and the shift in economic power from the West towards the East. Covid-19 came as a force-multiplier to all these trends and pressed “fast-forward”, bringing that future much closer.
Today, we can see a light at the end of the Covid-19 tunnel. 2021 is poised to be a recovery year, while we can anticipate a rebound in 2022 and beyond. In 2020, global foreign direct investment flows decreased by 40 per cent, according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development. They are expected to recover in 2022, though not back to 2019 levels and not uniformly across countries.
Many expect a K-shaped recovery, in which some sectors will thrive and others increasingly suffer
There will be new winners and losers. The nations that lead the future will be those setting the right policies today in terms of technology adoption – be that in robotics-enabled automation, enhanced supply chain digitalisation or additive manufacturing. The pace and extent of this technological adoption will partly depend on the policy environment for trade and investment, which is trending towards more interventionism, rising protectionism and a shift to regional and bilateral frameworks.
Closer to home, we see more positive signs of recovery. While uncertainty remains regarding the speed of the Covid-19 vaccine roll-out, all signs point to 2021 seeing a return to growth for the GCC. IHS Markit’s December 2020 country-specific Monthly Economic Outlook forecasts that all countries in the region will return to economic growth – in terms of real GDP – in 2021, with the UAE in the lead with a growth estimate of around 3.9 per cent. Indeed, in the first few weeks of 2021, economic activity is already improving as purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs), a measure of economic trends in manufacturing, also improve.
In the Emirates, growth projections are buoyed by an ambitious domestic vaccination programme. The country ranks second globally in Covid-19 inoculation rates. High immunisation numbers will mean the UAE could be among the first countries to open for international tourism and business. It could also utilise its logistics expertise and large international airlines and ports to further its strategy of becoming a vaccine hub for both commercial and diplomatic ends.
Teddy bears sit at tables in a British cafe after it was restricted to take-away sales only due to tightened Covid-19 restrictions. Reuters
The financial sector may see margins under pressure as broader economic support provided by government is gradually withdrawn and banks restore obligations deferred during the pandemic. But, while 2021 might be bumpy, FDI will see a boost from policy innovation, setting the pace for growth acceleration in 2022. The UAE introduced 100 per cent foreign ownership of companies in the base economy across most economic activities and an expansion of its 10-year long term visa programme.
However, this growth will be neither smooth nor even. While most sectors are expected to grow in 2021, the speed of growth will across them will depend on economic policy decisions and consumer behaviour.
Today, the UAE is standing on firm footing for economic recovery in 2021 and is poised for accelerated growth in 2022. Less than a month into the new year, the UAE’s exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which reflect the outlook for a broad basket of financial products, are the second-best performing among emerging markets with 11.3 per cent growth. All eyes in the country will be on Expo later this year, and the impact of this major global event on the country’s travel and tourism sectors.
What is ahead has been termed a K-shaped recovery, in which some sectors will thrive and others increasingly suffer. A sector that has promising prospects is the green economy. The mantra of build back better has been held up by many in Europe, and now the administration of US President Joe Biden in Washington is linking climate change to national security. We will see a major jump in sustainable investments in the region, with even more focus on renewable energy and climate technology. The UAE has already appointed a senior climate envoy, and announced major plans for hydrogen power in the first few weeks of 2021.
All in all, despite the trials of the past several months, the UAE is taking all of the right steps to maintain a good position going forward. That is a promising note on which to start to the year.
Yasar Jarrar is managing partner at International Advisory Group and adjunct professor at Hult International Business School
Revival
Eminem
Interscope
Info
What: 11th edition of the Mubadala World Tennis Championship
When: December 27-29, 2018
Confirmed: men: Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Kevin Anderson, Dominic Thiem, Hyeon Chung, Karen Khachanov; women: Venus Williams
Tickets: www.ticketmaster.ae, Virgin megastores or call 800 86 823
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
10 tips for entry-level job seekers
Have an up-to-date, professional LinkedIn profile. If you don’t have a LinkedIn account, set one up today. Avoid poor-quality profile pictures with distracting backgrounds. Include a professional summary and begin to grow your network.
Keep track of the job trends in your sector through the news. Apply for job alerts at your dream organisations and the types of jobs you want – LinkedIn uses AI to share similar relevant jobs based on your selections.
Double check that you’ve highlighted relevant skills on your resume and LinkedIn profile.
For most entry-level jobs, your resume will first be filtered by an applicant tracking system for keywords. Look closely at the description of the job you are applying for and mirror the language as much as possible (while being honest and accurate about your skills and experience).
Keep your CV professional and in a simple format – make sure you tailor your cover letter and application to the company and role.
Go online and look for details on job specifications for your target position. Make a list of skills required and set yourself some learning goals to tick off all the necessary skills one by one.
Don’t be afraid to reach outside your immediate friends and family to other acquaintances and let them know you are looking for new opportunities.
Make sure you’ve set your LinkedIn profile to signal that you are “open to opportunities”. Also be sure to use LinkedIn to search for people who are still actively hiring by searching for those that have the headline “I’m hiring” or “We’re hiring” in their profile.
Prepare for online interviews using mock interview tools. Even before landing interviews, it can be useful to start practising.
Be professional and patient. Always be professional with whoever you are interacting with throughout your search process, this will be remembered. You need to be patient, dedicated and not give up on your search. Candidates need to make sure they are following up appropriately for roles they have applied.
Arda Atalay, head of Mena private sector at LinkedIn Talent Solutions, Rudy Bier, managing partner of Kinetic Business Solutions and Ben Kinerman Daltrey, co-founder of KinFitz
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Emirates (www.emirates.com) flies directly to Hanoi, Vietnam, with fares starting from around Dh2,725 return, while Etihad (www.etihad.com) fares cost about Dh2,213 return with a stop. Chuong is 25 kilometres south of Hanoi.
ULTRA PROCESSED FOODS
- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns
- margarines and spreads; cookies, biscuits, pastries, cakes, and cake mixes, breakfast cereals, cereal and energy bars;
- energy drinks, milk drinks, fruit yoghurts and fruit drinks, cocoa drinks, meat and chicken extracts and instant sauces
- infant formulas and follow-on milks, health and slimming products such as powdered or fortified meal and dish substitutes,
- many ready-to-heat products including pre-prepared pies and pasta and pizza dishes, poultry and fish nuggets and sticks, sausages, burgers, hot dogs, and other reconstituted meat products, powdered and packaged instant soups, noodles and desserts.
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Key findings of Jenkins report
Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Moral education needed in a 'rapidly changing world'
Moral education lessons for young people is needed in a rapidly changing world, the head of the programme said.
Alanood Al Kaabi, head of programmes at the Education Affairs Office of the Crown Price Court - Abu Dhabi, said: "The Crown Price Court is fully behind this initiative and have already seen the curriculum succeed in empowering young people and providing them with the necessary tools to succeed in building the future of the nation at all levels.
"Moral education touches on every aspect and subject that children engage in.
"It is not just limited to science or maths but it is involved in all subjects and it is helping children to adapt to integral moral practises.
"The moral education programme has been designed to develop children holistically in a world being rapidly transformed by technology and globalisation."
