We are entering a period of immense complexity for the Middle East. What happens in the next few months will set the tone in our region for years. If managed correctly, there is the possibility of building a more peaceful political situation. If mismanaged, the consequences could be dire.
One arena which will receive much attention in the next few weeks is Syria. Russia, a key player in the conflict and power dynamics of the country, is in an uncomfortable position. Like all involved in the war, it is trying to predict President-elect Joe Biden’s policy towards the country. Moscow wants to be done with the Syria issue in 2021. But this seems unlikely due to a lack of co-operation with Turkey, as well as reports of rifts emerging among the Syrian ruling elite. Moscow, therefore, has difficult choices to make, including how to settle the question of Idlib, a notoriously unstable area in the country, in which anti-Assad sentiment remains strong. A harsh military response in the province seems increasingly likely.
A desire to scale-down its presence in the country also brings the possibility that Iran will fill the subsequent void. The Iranians are suggesting to the Russians that they can handle the situation when the latter withdraws. They are offering “guarantees” that Syria would remain friendly towards Russia under Iran’s leadership. Russia’s new weariness in Syria reflects changing priorities in Moscow in favour of a more defensive “lone wolf” strategy, as life in the country drags on under the burden of sanctions and the prospect of a more hawkish incoming US administration.
A diplomatic solution between Mr Putin, Mr Erdogan and Mr Assad is still possible, but the challenges are immense. Prominent Syrian security leaders are calling for change in Syria’s leadership, arguing that without a change in leadership and policy, Syria faces total collapse. This is a problem for Moscow, which has continued to support Mr Assad.
But the future of Syria will also depend on whether the Biden administration really intends to return to the Iran nuclear deal. If Mr Biden does, he will effectively allow Tehran to tighten its grip on a range of unstable Arab countries. This is why Iran is emboldened and so keen to step into the role in Syria that has previously been filled by Russia.
Members of the Iran-backed Iraqi militia Hashd al-Shaabi at a graduation ceremony in the central Iraqi city of Karbala. AFP
The new US administration should also remember its historic legal and moral responsibilities in the region
A problem here is the fact that the original signatories of the Iran nuclear deal seem keen to return to its terms. Such countries include China, and Russia, Germany, Britain, and France. This is despite outgoing President Trump arguing for four years that it was the “worst deal in history”, given the fact it failed to limit Iran’s ballistic missile programme and regional expansionist activities. These issues were ignored by the six signatories in an effort to appease Iran. But what has happened in the Middle East during the last five years is a direct result of the nuclear deal. And now, history may be about to repeat itself.
Although regrettable, there was a reason the signatories chose to ignore the issue of Iran’s ballistic missile programme and regional interference. Despite the fact everyone acknowledged these activities constituted a real danger, there was still a hope among Western powers, albeit now a disproven one, that the deal would open up new diplomatic channels for further de-escalation. This has now proven not to be the case.
In response to this new reality, others now argue for a new and better deal. Such an agreement would have a more comprehensive approach, considering the needs of the entire region. It will be important to not have this new deal rooted in the realities of 2015. A lot has changed since then. Instead, a new deal should take into account major foreign policy developments of the past five years, including the Abraham Accords, in which the UAE and Israel normalised diplomatic relations. This should by no means be achieved by pursuing a hugely damaging and costly military solution.
Instead, the blossoming and ever-closer relations between major Middle East players, such as a number of Arab countries and Israel, should provide more opportunity to leverage concessions from Iran in a future deal.
The new US administration should also remember its historic legal and moral responsibilities in the region, particularly in Iraq after Iran was allowed to creep in and destabilise the country. This can be achieved by following a consistent policy that includes and considers the voices and anxieties of all Middle Eastern countries. Whether America likes it or not, it simply cannot withdraw from its historic responsibility in the region, particularly after recent mistakes.
Many have advocated a two-step procedure or “parallel negotiations”, in which separate talks happen at the same time. In such a scenario one track would deal with Iran’s regional behaviour and its ballistic missile program. The other would deal with restoring the nuclear deal as sanctions were gradually lifted. This approach prevents an unfairly beneficial situation for Iran. Such a negotiation strategy would also be more likely to lead to deals in which more regional powers have a stake. It will also mean Iran is not simply let off the hook after years of destabilising behaviour.
Until negotiations start, President-elect Joe Biden should remain difficult to read. Remaining ambiguous will deprive Iran of the confidence to act in a rash manner. Rushing on the part of the US would not be in the world’s interest. This would only worry historic US allies and embolden the most cynical and destabilising forces in Iranian politics.
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute and a columnist for The National
Timeline
2012-2015
The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East
May 2017
The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts
September 2021
Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act
October 2021
Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence
December 2024
Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group
May 2025
The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan
July 2025
The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan
August 2025
Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision
October 2025
Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange
Where: All main sessions are held in the InterContinental Dubai Festival City
Price: Sessions range from free entry to Dh125 tickets, with the exception of special events.
Hot Tip: If waiting for your book to be signed looks like it will be timeconsuming, ask the festival’s bookstore if they have pre-signed copies of the book you’re looking for. They should have a bunch from some of the festival’s biggest guest authors.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Weather warnings show that Storm Eunice is soon to make landfall. The videographer and I are scrambling to return to the other side of the Channel before it does. As we race to the port of Calais, I see miles of wire fencing topped with barbed wire all around it, a silent ‘Keep Out’ sign for those who, unlike us, aren’t lucky enough to have the right to move freely and safely across borders.
We set sail on a giant ferry whose length dwarfs the dinghies migrants use by nearly a 100 times. Despite the windy rain lashing at the portholes, we arrive safely in Dover; grateful but acutely aware of the miserable conditions the people we’ve left behind are in and of the privilege of choice.
WandaVision
Starring: Elizabeth Olsen, Paul Bettany
Directed by: Matt Shakman
Rating: Four stars
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
