We are entering a period of immense complexity for the Middle East. What happens in the next few months will set the tone in our region for years. If managed correctly, there is the possibility of building a more peaceful political situation. If mismanaged, the consequences could be dire.
One arena which will receive much attention in the next few weeks is Syria. Russia, a key player in the conflict and power dynamics of the country, is in an uncomfortable position. Like all involved in the war, it is trying to predict President-elect Joe Biden’s policy towards the country. Moscow wants to be done with the Syria issue in 2021. But this seems unlikely due to a lack of co-operation with Turkey, as well as reports of rifts emerging among the Syrian ruling elite. Moscow, therefore, has difficult choices to make, including how to settle the question of Idlib, a notoriously unstable area in the country, in which anti-Assad sentiment remains strong. A harsh military response in the province seems increasingly likely.
A desire to scale-down its presence in the country also brings the possibility that Iran will fill the subsequent void. The Iranians are suggesting to the Russians that they can handle the situation when the latter withdraws. They are offering “guarantees” that Syria would remain friendly towards Russia under Iran’s leadership. Russia’s new weariness in Syria reflects changing priorities in Moscow in favour of a more defensive “lone wolf” strategy, as life in the country drags on under the burden of sanctions and the prospect of a more hawkish incoming US administration.
A diplomatic solution between Mr Putin, Mr Erdogan and Mr Assad is still possible, but the challenges are immense. Prominent Syrian security leaders are calling for change in Syria’s leadership, arguing that without a change in leadership and policy, Syria faces total collapse. This is a problem for Moscow, which has continued to support Mr Assad.
But the future of Syria will also depend on whether the Biden administration really intends to return to the Iran nuclear deal. If Mr Biden does, he will effectively allow Tehran to tighten its grip on a range of unstable Arab countries. This is why Iran is emboldened and so keen to step into the role in Syria that has previously been filled by Russia.
Members of the Iran-backed Iraqi militia Hashd al-Shaabi at a graduation ceremony in the central Iraqi city of Karbala. AFP
The new US administration should also remember its historic legal and moral responsibilities in the region
A problem here is the fact that the original signatories of the Iran nuclear deal seem keen to return to its terms. Such countries include China, and Russia, Germany, Britain, and France. This is despite outgoing President Trump arguing for four years that it was the “worst deal in history”, given the fact it failed to limit Iran’s ballistic missile programme and regional expansionist activities. These issues were ignored by the six signatories in an effort to appease Iran. But what has happened in the Middle East during the last five years is a direct result of the nuclear deal. And now, history may be about to repeat itself.
Although regrettable, there was a reason the signatories chose to ignore the issue of Iran’s ballistic missile programme and regional interference. Despite the fact everyone acknowledged these activities constituted a real danger, there was still a hope among Western powers, albeit now a disproven one, that the deal would open up new diplomatic channels for further de-escalation. This has now proven not to be the case.
In response to this new reality, others now argue for a new and better deal. Such an agreement would have a more comprehensive approach, considering the needs of the entire region. It will be important to not have this new deal rooted in the realities of 2015. A lot has changed since then. Instead, a new deal should take into account major foreign policy developments of the past five years, including the Abraham Accords, in which the UAE and Israel normalised diplomatic relations. This should by no means be achieved by pursuing a hugely damaging and costly military solution.
Instead, the blossoming and ever-closer relations between major Middle East players, such as a number of Arab countries and Israel, should provide more opportunity to leverage concessions from Iran in a future deal.
The new US administration should also remember its historic legal and moral responsibilities in the region, particularly in Iraq after Iran was allowed to creep in and destabilise the country. This can be achieved by following a consistent policy that includes and considers the voices and anxieties of all Middle Eastern countries. Whether America likes it or not, it simply cannot withdraw from its historic responsibility in the region, particularly after recent mistakes.
Many have advocated a two-step procedure or “parallel negotiations”, in which separate talks happen at the same time. In such a scenario one track would deal with Iran’s regional behaviour and its ballistic missile program. The other would deal with restoring the nuclear deal as sanctions were gradually lifted. This approach prevents an unfairly beneficial situation for Iran. Such a negotiation strategy would also be more likely to lead to deals in which more regional powers have a stake. It will also mean Iran is not simply let off the hook after years of destabilising behaviour.
Until negotiations start, President-elect Joe Biden should remain difficult to read. Remaining ambiguous will deprive Iran of the confidence to act in a rash manner. Rushing on the part of the US would not be in the world’s interest. This would only worry historic US allies and embolden the most cynical and destabilising forces in Iranian politics.
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute and a columnist for The National
Name: Brendalle Belaza
From: Crossing Rubber, Philippines
Arrived in the UAE: 2007
Favourite place in Abu Dhabi: NYUAD campus
Favourite photography style: Street photography
Favourite book: Harry Potter
What is Folia?
Prince Khaled bin Alwaleed bin Talal's new plant-based menu will launch at Four Seasons hotels in Dubai this November. A desire to cater to people looking for clean, healthy meals beyond green salad is what inspired Prince Khaled and American celebrity chef Matthew Kenney to create Folia. The word means "from the leaves" in Latin, and the exclusive menu offers fine plant-based cuisine across Four Seasons properties in Los Angeles, Bahrain and, soon, Dubai.
Kenney specialises in vegan cuisine and is the founder of Plant Food Wine and 20 other restaurants worldwide. "I’ve always appreciated Matthew’s work," says the Saudi royal. "He has a singular culinary talent and his approach to plant-based dining is prescient and unrivalled. I was a fan of his long before we established our professional relationship."
Folia first launched at The Four Seasons Hotel Los Angeles at Beverly Hills in July 2018. It is available at the poolside Cabana Restaurant and for in-room dining across the property, as well as in its private event space. The food is vibrant and colourful, full of fresh dishes such as the hearts of palm ceviche with California fruit, vegetables and edible flowers; green hearb tacos filled with roasted squash and king oyster barbacoa; and a savoury coconut cream pie with macadamia crust.
In March 2019, the Folia menu reached Gulf shores, as it was introduced at the Four Seasons Hotel Bahrain Bay, where it is served at the Bay View Lounge. Next, on Tuesday, November 1 – also known as World Vegan Day – it will come to the UAE, to the Four Seasons Resort Dubai at Jumeirah Beach and the Four Seasons DIFC, both properties Prince Khaled has spent "considerable time at and love".
There are also plans to take Folia to several more locations throughout the Middle East and Europe.
While health-conscious diners will be attracted to the concept, Prince Khaled is careful to stress Folia is "not meant for a specific subset of customers. It is meant for everyone who wants a culinary experience without the negative impact that eating out so often comes with."
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
Tax authority targets shisha levy evasion
The Federal Tax Authority will track shisha imports with electronic markers to protect customers and ensure levies have been paid.
Khalid Ali Al Bustani, director of the tax authority, on Sunday said the move is to "prevent tax evasion and support the authority’s tax collection efforts".
The scheme’s first phase, which came into effect on 1st January, 2019, covers all types of imported and domestically produced and distributed cigarettes. As of May 1, importing any type of cigarettes without the digital marks will be prohibited.
He said the latest phase will see imported and locally produced shisha tobacco tracked by the final quarter of this year.
"The FTA also maintains ongoing communication with concerned companies, to help them adapt their systems to meet our requirements and coordinate between all parties involved," he said.
Total customers: 300,000 unique customers every month
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
It's up to you to go green
Nils El Accad, chief executive and owner of Organic Foods and Café, says going green is about “lifestyle and attitude” rather than a “money change”; people need to plan ahead to fill water bottles in advance and take their own bags to the supermarket, he says.
“People always want someone else to do the work; it doesn’t work like that,” he adds. “The first step: you have to consciously make that decision and change.”
When he gets a takeaway, says Mr El Accad, he takes his own glass jars instead of accepting disposable aluminium containers, paper napkins and plastic tubs, cutlery and bags from restaurants.
He also plants his own crops and herbs at home and at the Sheikh Zayed store, from basil and rosemary to beans, squashes and papayas. “If you’re going to water anything, better it be tomatoes and cucumbers, something edible, than grass,” he says.
“All this throwaway plastic - cups, bottles, forks - has to go first,” says Mr El Accad, who has banned all disposable straws, whether plastic or even paper, from the café chain.
One of the latest changes he has implemented at his stores is to offer refills of liquid laundry detergent, to save plastic. The two brands Organic Foods stocks, Organic Larder and Sonnett, are both “triple-certified - you could eat the product”.
The Organic Larder detergent will soon be delivered in 200-litre metal oil drums before being decanted into 20-litre containers in-store.
Customers can refill their bottles at least 30 times before they start to degrade, he says. Organic Larder costs Dh35.75 for one litre and Dh62 for 2.75 litres and refills will cost 15 to 20 per cent less, Mr El Accad says.
But while there are savings to be had, going green tends to come with upfront costs and extra work and planning. Are we ready to refill bottles rather than throw them away? “You have to change,” says Mr El Accad. “I can only make it available.”
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