US President Donald Trump was able to erase many of the achievements of his domestic and foreign policies from the spotlight last week. Instead he is leaving a shrunken legacy in which he shall be remembered mostly for inciting his supporters to storm the Capitol building in an attempt to overturn the democratic outcome of the recent presidential election.
Future generations will not remember Donald Trump for standing up to China in international trade to serve his domestic interests. They will not remember him for putting a spanner in the wheels of a flawed nuclear deal his predecessor had signed with Iran – a deal that allowed its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to expand militarily in Syria and dominate countries like Iraq and Lebanon. They will not remember him for brokering the launch of unprecedented diplomatic relations between many Arab states and Israel. And they will not remember him for contributing to a reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which could see GCC relations restored.
White House Senior Adviser Jared Kushner at the GCC in Al Ula, Saudi Arabia on January 5, 2021. The US played a significant role in restoring relations between Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Courtesy Saudi Royal Court
Rather, future generations will remember Mr Trump for that dark day, when he yielded wisdom to his temper and vindictive tendencies, losing the respect of millions of Americans and much of the world. Mr Trump has given the best parting gift possible to President-elect Joe Biden, not just by rallying a quasi-unanimous American and global chorus insisting he hand over power without further hindrance, but also by prompting even his closest allies to defy him, including Vice President Mike Pence who insisted on discharging his constitutional duties and certifying Mr Biden’s election victory.
Mr Trump may have even rallied senior Republican leaders against him. Last week's developments may yet prove to be a watershed moment for the planned domestic and foreign policies of the incoming administration. In short, the madness that unfolded in the US capital has woken up all sides to the danger of the slippery slope towards American civil strife.
This does not mean that the relationship between the two main parties will suddenly heal, or that Mr Trump’s most earnest supporters will forgive the Republican Party for not siding with them. The President, after all, retains huge influence inside the Republican establishment and has a lot of electoral resources. He is not likely to fade into oblivion. Indeed, he has millions of followers intent on returning him to the White House or, at the very least, disrupting Joe Biden’s ability to govern. All of this may push centrist Republicans and Democrats to work together on a multitude of issues, and to improve accountability and participation in decision-making.
A vendor wearing a face mask arranges bread for sale inside a bakery in Beirut, Lebanon. Reuters
Turkish soldiers stand guard during a joint Russian-Turkish patrol in the eastern countryside of the town of Darbasiyah near the border with Turkey in Syria's northeastern Hasakah province. AFP
A Russian Mi-17 military helicopter flies by soldiers and military vehicles during a joint Russian-Turkish patrol in Darbasiyah near the border with Turkey in Syria's northeastern Hasakah province. AFP
French President Emmanuel Macron welcomes his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah El Sisi at the Elysee presidential Palace in Paris. AFP
A building belonging to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) is seen after it was burnt during anti-government protests on the outskirt of Sulaimaniyah, Iraq. Reuters
The PUK municipality building is seen after it was burnt during anti-government protests on the outskirt of Sulaimaniyah, Iraq. REUTERS
An Azeri service member looks at the historic Khodaafarin Bridge near the border with Iran in the area, which came under the control of Azerbaijan's troops following a military conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia. Reuters
Azeri service members guard the area in Jabrayil District on the Iran border. REUTERS
Members of the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) carry placards during a gathering in front of Beirut's Bank Association. EPA
People walk past christmas decorations set up for display at a shop in the Swailem market in Riyadh. AFP
Residents living in Saudi Arabia inspect Christmas decorations at a shop in the Swailem market in Riyadh. AFP
Girls get school bags provided by a local aid group, Mona Relief Yemen, at a public school in Sanaa, Yemen. EPA
The Democrats will now dominate the the White House, Senate and House of Representatives. Some of them may not want to work with Republicans. But others may prefer to avoid a confrontation and avoid slowing down Biden’s priorities, such as moving to revive the nuclear agreement with Iran and lifting the sanctions.
The recommendations of Mr Biden’s team on the Middle East are not necessarily based on denying the achievements of the Trump administration, but will seek to build on some of its gains, especially with regard to Israel. The objective will be to provide all possible US aid needed by Israel at every juncture, including incentives to Israel to negotiate with the Palestinians and vice versa.
What matters is preserving and expanding what Mr Trump and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, achieved through the historic Abraham Accords and the start of normalisation between Arab states and Israel. Mr Kushner also played a key role in brokering the Gulf reconciliation, which the Biden team intends to build on and leverage politically, economically, and strategically. One question is, who will be Mr Biden’s Jared Kushner?
The Biden team is already recommending the development and modernisation of US bases in the region, as both China and Russia enhance their military footprint in the Middle East and the Gulf, and Iran continues to pursue nuclear ambitions.
Iran will pose a dilemma for the Biden team's insistence on a two-track policy that starts with soft pressure before resorting to the "hard road" if Tehran does not comply with Washington. There is a recommendation to begin cutting Iran off from the countries it has come to dominate, including Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. But how does Mr Biden envisage actually achieving this task? It is not clear yet. It would be impossible to persuade the regime in Iran, especially the IRGC, which in charge of policy in these countries with the full blessing of the Supreme Leader, to adopt this goal.
Iraqi supporters of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, centre, protest in Basra, Iraq, on January 8, 2021. AP Photo
Who will be Mr Biden's Jared Kushner?
The tools that the Biden team is thinking of using may include lifting the sanctions, as Iran desperately wants. However, that is unlikely to be enough to make Iran's leadership change its expansionist ideology. For Iran, its regional strategy is motivated by existential reasons. But perhaps the Biden team's anticipated approach, which is to lift the sanctions before threatening to reimpose them, will do the trick. Then again, perhaps not.
Clearly, Mr Biden’s team wants to work closely with European powers, which were antagonised by Mr Trump’s methods and insistence that they pay more contributions into Nato. Today, there is transatlantic eagerness to resume the previous era of co-operation before the Trump era.
Mr Biden’s team wants the President-elect to visit the Middle East before the end of 2021, but only if such a visit would have concrete gains. Mr Biden wants to see serious partnerships and active roles. For this reason, there is talk of appointing a special US envoy to the Middle East with broad powers at the start of the new presidential term.
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute and a columnist for The National
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Moral education needed in a 'rapidly changing world'
Moral education lessons for young people is needed in a rapidly changing world, the head of the programme said.
Alanood Al Kaabi, head of programmes at the Education Affairs Office of the Crown Price Court - Abu Dhabi, said: "The Crown Price Court is fully behind this initiative and have already seen the curriculum succeed in empowering young people and providing them with the necessary tools to succeed in building the future of the nation at all levels.
"Moral education touches on every aspect and subject that children engage in.
"It is not just limited to science or maths but it is involved in all subjects and it is helping children to adapt to integral moral practises.
"The moral education programme has been designed to develop children holistically in a world being rapidly transformed by technology and globalisation."
Proudest achievement: “I came to a new country and started this shop”
Favourite TV programme: the news
Favourite place in Dubai: Al Fahidi. “They started the metro in 2009 and I didn’t take it yet.”
Family: six sons in Dubai and a daughter in Faisalabad
Sustainable Development Goals
1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere
2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture
3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages
4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all
5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls
6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all
7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all
8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all
9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialisation and foster innovation
10. Reduce inequality within and among countries
11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable
12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns
13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its effects
14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development
15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss
16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels
17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalise the global partnership for sustainable development
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024. It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine. Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages]. The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts. With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians. Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved. Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world. The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
Thalassaemia is part of a family of genetic conditions affecting the blood known as haemoglobin disorders.
Haemoglobin is a substance in the red blood cells that carries oxygen and a lack of it triggers anemia, leaving patients very weak, short of breath and pale.
The most severe type of the condition is typically inherited when both parents are carriers. Those patients often require regular blood transfusions - about 450 of the UAE's 2,000 thalassaemia patients - though frequent transfusions can lead to too much iron in the body and heart and liver problems.
The condition mainly affects people of Mediterranean, South Asian, South-East Asian and Middle Eastern origin. Saudi Arabia recorded 45,892 cases of carriers between 2004 and 2014.
A World Health Organisation study estimated that globally there are at least 950,000 'new carrier couples' every year and annually there are 1.33 million at-risk pregnancies.
