The Turkish military operation in the Syrian Kurdish region of Afrin has reached its second milestone. Rebel forces backed by the Turkish army reached the edges of the city and have effectively divided the enclave into two isolated halves.
The gains come a week after the Turkish assault cleared all the border lines near Afrin of any Kurdish militia presence, concurrently linking two Turkey-aligned rebel pockets. The latest milestone happened against the backdrop of a string of abrupt retreats by the Kurdish YPG, or the People's Protection Units, from villages and urban centres north and south of Afrin.
The rapid gains could be due to a calculated withdrawal by the YPG from rural areas to focus on defending the city. Reports from Turkey indicate the militia has suffered losses outside the city, as they became exposed to Turkish air strikes. Another factor could be related to the reported withdrawal of the regime forces that had entered the city last month, as part of a deal between Damascus and the YPG.
So, the situation has now changed dramatically in favour of a Turkish assault. Whether the YPG chooses to stand and fight in the city or decides to spare it further fighting, Turkey has achieved a significant breakthrough that could reverse Kurdish dominance in northern Syria.
The real question for the YPG now is how Turkey could be stopped from advancing further. None of the YPG’s various friends are willing to stand up against Turkey. If anything, Russia and the United States are seeking to accommodate Ankara’s concerns. Iran and the regime, the two sides that have recently shown signs of restlessness towards the growing Turkish presence, have limited choices in this regard.
More importantly, unconfirmed reports indicated that Ankara and Washington have reached a formula to address their mutual differences about Manbij, an Arab-majority city liberated by the YPG in 2016. Turkey wants the YPG to evacuate the city, which, if it happens, would substantially disrupt the Kurdish autonomous project.
If the YPG loses control over the areas west of the Euphrates River, that would diminish the vast territorial network the militia had in northern and eastern Syria, which in turn would undermine its influence and leverage. Consequently, with increased Turkish pressure and due to the dominance of the Arab demographics east of the river, it would become conceivable that the Kurdish ability to dominate will be steadily reduced.
The latter possibility relates to one of the myths common in western policy and media circles over the past three years. The myth involves comparisons between the Kurdish presence in Syria to that in Iraq. While Kurds in Iraq are a majority in a continuous and viable region in the north, Kurdish communities in Syria tend to be more scattered. Part of that is a product of deliberate Baath Party’s policies to relocate Kurds and settle Arab families near or in dense Kurdish communities.
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The impact of the Turkish gains, then, will be far reaching for both the YPG and the US strategy in eastern Syria. The protection provided by the US to the YPG-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces could be undermined by the growing Turkish assertiveness. An alternative would be for the US and Turkey to address their differences without the latter undermining a project that is widely welcomed by people in eastern Syria, including Arab communities. Instead, a Turkish-US rapprochement on this front could strengthen the project at the expense of the regime and its allies, which have so far worked closely with Ankara since 2016.
In this context, other implications for the Turkish gains should be pointed out, specifically those related to the question of why the YPG did not make concessions to the regime that would have prevented Turkey from attacking Afrin.
A looming Turkish battle in Afrin first became a possibility last August, when talks began between Turkey and Russia about it. After Ankara failed to convince the US of cooperating to expel ISIL from Raqqa a month earlier, it shifted its attention to the north west. A plan to expel the YPG from Afrin in exchange for fighting Jabhat Al Nusra in Idlib was agreed between the two. But discussions continued, with a blessing from Turkey, between Russia and the YPG to hand over the city to the regime, to avoid a Turkish attack.
The YPG refused the offer to hand over the city. Instead, it sought a compromise that would involve some regime presence without allowing it to take over. With Turkey closing in on Afrin, the rejection of the Russian plan now seems a miscalculation by the YPG. The regime would allow at least some presence of the YPG in the Kurdish city, even if the latter loses control, while Turkey would seek to ensure the YPG is fully replaced by other forces. The only conceivable advantage for the latter scenario is the YPG has the ability to conduct an insurgency against Turkey in Afrin.
The choice made by the YPG offers a lesson for the group’s possible choices in eastern Syria. For a long time, many have argued that the YPG will eventually make a deal with the regime to hand over areas seized from ISIL in exchange for autonomy. This has been a key reason for those opposed to the Syrian regime to suspect the YPG and its future intentions.
The developments in Afrin point to gaps in this thinking. The regime is unlikely to accept autonomy for the Kurds. And the YPG also recognises that the resurgence of the regime would be a threat to its project, since Damascus tolerates the YPG’s dominance only because of its military limitations.
The YPG recently bet on Iran and the regime to bypass Russia in Afrin. The entry of regime forces to Afrin, without having any meaningful presence, has not stopped Turkey. Combined with the idea that the YPG still refused to allow the regime’s takeover of Afrin, so far, Iran’s inability to stop Turkey could further drive the YPG away from any alliance with Damascus and its allies.
These dynamics create a new opening. If the US and Turkey reach common ground, benefiting from the reality check produced by Ankara’s newfound assertiveness, the outcome could be one of the most game-changing alliances, as it builds on the two Nato allies’ spheres of influence and brings an end to Russia’s opportunistic alliance with Turkey to patiently rearrange the jigsaw pieces of the Syrian conflict.
The%20Killer
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World ranking (at month’s end)
Jan - 257
Feb - 198
Mar - 159
Apr - 161
May - 159
Jun – 162
Currently: 88
Year-end rank since turning pro
2016 - 279
2015 - 185
2014 - 143
2013 - 63
2012 - 384
2011 - 883
Company%20profile
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BIO
Favourite holiday destination: Turkey - because the government look after animals so well there.
Favourite film: I love scary movies. I have so many favourites but The Ring stands out.
Favourite book: The Lord of the Rings. I didn’t like the movies but I loved the books.
Favourite colour: Black.
Favourite music: Hard rock. I actually also perform as a rock DJ in Dubai.
Countdown to Zero exhibition will show how disease can be beaten
Countdown to Zero: Defeating Disease, an international multimedia exhibition created by the American Museum of National History in collaboration with The Carter Center, will open in Abu Dhabi a month before Reaching the Last Mile.
Opening on October 15 and running until November 15, the free exhibition opens at The Galleria mall on Al Maryah Island, and has already been seen at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
Anxiety and work stress major factors
Anxiety, work stress and social isolation are all factors in the recogised rise in mental health problems.
A study UAE Ministry of Health researchers published in the summer also cited struggles with weight and illnesses as major contributors.
Its authors analysed a dozen separate UAE studies between 2007 and 2017. Prevalence was often higher in university students, women and in people on low incomes.
One showed 28 per cent of female students at a Dubai university reported symptoms linked to depression. Another in Al Ain found 22.2 per cent of students had depressive symptoms - five times the global average.
It said the country has made strides to address mental health problems but said: “Our review highlights the overall prevalence of depressive symptoms and depression, which may long have been overlooked."
Prof Samir Al Adawi, of the department of behavioural medicine at Sultan Qaboos University in Oman, who was not involved in the study but is a recognised expert in the Gulf, said how mental health is discussed varies significantly between cultures and nationalities.
“The problem we have in the Gulf is the cross-cultural differences and how people articulate emotional distress," said Prof Al Adawi.
“Someone will say that I have physical complaints rather than emotional complaints. This is the major problem with any discussion around depression."
Daniel Bardsley
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Torque: 881Nm at 4,800rpm
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MATCH INFO
Azerbaijan 0
Wales 2 (Moore 10', Wilson 34')
Company%20Profile
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World Cup qualifier
Thailand 2 (Dangda 26', Panya 51')
UAE 1 (Mabkhout 45 2')
ARSENAL IN 1977
Feb 05 Arsenal 0-0 Sunderland
Feb 12 Manchester City 1-0 Arsenal
Feb 15 Middlesbrough 3-0 Arsenal
Feb 19 Arsenal 2-3 West Ham
Feb 26 Middlesbrough 4-1 Arsenal (FA Cup)
Mar 01 Everton 2-1 Arsenal
Mar 05 Arsenal 1-4 ipswich
March 08 Arsenal 1-2 West Brom
Mar 12 QPR 2-1 Arsenal
Mar 23 Stoke 1-1 Arsenal
Apr 02 Arsenal 3-0 Leicester
Company%20Profile
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The specs
Engine: 2.9-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 540hp at 6,500rpm
Torque: 600Nm at 2,500rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Kerb weight: 1580kg
Price: From Dh750k
On sale: via special order
LUKA CHUPPI
Director: Laxman Utekar
Producer: Maddock Films, Jio Cinema
Cast: Kartik Aaryan, Kriti Sanon, Pankaj Tripathi, Vinay Pathak, Aparshakti Khurana
Rating: 3/5
Company%C2%A0profile
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
Abu Dhabi traffic facts
Drivers in Abu Dhabi spend 10 per cent longer in congested conditions than they would on a free-flowing road
The highest volume of traffic on the roads is found between 7am and 8am on a Sunday.
Travelling before 7am on a Sunday could save up to four hours per year on a 30-minute commute.
The day was the least congestion in Abu Dhabi in 2019 was Tuesday, August 13.
The highest levels of traffic were found on Sunday, November 10.
Drivers in Abu Dhabi lost 41 hours spent in traffic jams in rush hour during 2019
Company%20Profile
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THE BIO
Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979
Education: UAE University, Al Ain
Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6
Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma
Favourite book: Science and geology
Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC
Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.
The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
'The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey'
Rating: 3/5
Directors: Ramin Bahrani, Debbie Allen, Hanelle Culpepper, Guillermo Navarro
Writers: Walter Mosley
Stars: Samuel L Jackson, Dominique Fishback, Walton Goggins