Since the end of the Cold War, American political scientists have fretted about the rise of illiberal democracies around the globe. Yet the US itself is increasingly becoming the inverse: a liberal non-democracy.
Popularised in a 1997 essay by Fareed Zakaria, the term “illiberal democracy” describes a political system with the trappings and formal processes of democracy – elections, multiple parties, privately-owned media and so on – but in which power is effectively autocratic. Venezuela, Turkey, Russia and Hungary might look democratic on paper, but are clearly not liberal.
The US is becoming strikingly undemocratic but does not resemble such "illiberal democracies". The Republican Party is trying to systematise minority political rule despite an increasing liberalisation of culture and society, which it is powerless to restrain. The US is thus essentially liberal, but increasingly not meaningfully democratic.
Under Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish state could be described as an illiberal democracy. AFP
In the Donald Trump era, racism plainly lingers, but most racists passionately deny their racism. Misogyny, sexual assault and harassment persist but they are increasingly stigmatised and potentially dangerous to abusers. Homophobia has greatly decreased, and gay marriage is generally accepted. And despite a surge of nativism, most of US society is rapidly re-conceptualising itself as a far broader ethnic and religious rainbow.
Illiberal democracies are often associated with "majoritarian authoritarianism" – the idea that anything over50 per cent of the population, or even whoever gets the most votes, can do virtually anything, minority and individual rights notwithstanding. But US Republican power is not majoritarian, and it is out of step with most of these liberal social and cultural changes.
Mr Trump was elected president in 2016 despite getting almost three million votes less than his opponent Hillary Clinton. Similarly, the Republican “majority” in the Senate represents 15 million fewer Americans than the Democratic “minority".
In several key swing states, the political outcome is similarly distorted. Partisan gerrymandering has meant that in the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and North Carolina, for example, Democrats won 54, 53 and 51 per cent of votes in the last election but secured only 45, 47 and 45 per cent of legislative seats respectively.
As I noted recently on these pages, turnout in US elections is now all-important. There are considerably more Democrats, but Republicans are typically better at motivating and mobilising their supporters. Still, Republicans increasingly concede that they simply do not represent a majority and that their national, and sometimes state-level, power often depends on limiting the number of citizens who vote.
Our cartoonist Shadi Ghanim's take on the recent Wisconsin election.
Mr Trump recently claimed that if the country generally adopted voting by mail or other reforms making voting simpler and easier, "you’d never have a Republican elected in this country again". Many Republicans have voiced similar sentiments. Last year, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell even described a proposal to facilitate voting by making election day a federal holiday "a political power grab" by Democrats.
The appalling spectacle last Tuesday in the state of Wisconsin, where the Republican legislature refused to consider postponing the election – despite the state being under lockdown due to the coronavirus – was a chilling demonstration of how this works. It could even serve as a dry run for potential efforts to use the pandemic to similarly boost Mr Trump's chances in November.
Mr Trump urged Republicans to "fight very hard" against mail voting initiatives prompted by the pandemic, claiming – contrary to all evidence – that it invites massive fraud. Although he calls it "corrupt", Mr Trump himself voted by mail in March, "because I'm allowed to".
The Supreme Courts of both Wisconsin and the US separately split exactly along partisan lines on the Wisconsin election, with Republicans barring any extension of deadlines for absentee ballots – even though numerous voters applied for, but did not receive, them. Strikingly, both courts refused to meet in person for fear of infection, but then insisted Wisconsin voters must choose between risking their own lives or accepting disenfranchisement.
Now, Mr Trump is taking advantage of the pandemic to purge government inspectors general who made the mistake of doing their duty and telling a variety of inconvenient truths. He seems keen to install cronies who will not engage in troublesome oversight, though that is exactly what inspectors general were created to do.
The Manhattan skyline rises over the Borough of Brooklyn on March 31, 2020 in New York. AFP
A shopper and cashier wear protective equipment at the checkout station at Pat's Farms grocery store in Merrick, New York. AFP
Paramedics push a gurney with a patient to Brooklyn Hospital Centre Emergency Room in the Brooklyn borough of New York. AFP
A New York Police officer stands guard in an almost empty Times Square during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease. Reuters
A mounted police officer rides though a mostly deserted Times Square during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease in the Manhattan. Reuters
A man wears personal protective equipment as he walks on First Avenue, during the coronavirus disease outbreak in New York City. Reuters
A New York City Police officer takes a selfie while in the middle of the street in an almost empty Times Square. Reuters
The US Navy hospital ship carrying 1,000 hospital beds moves past the Statue of Liberty as it arrives in New York. AFP
A medical worker walks out of a coronavirus testing tent at Brooklyn Hospital Centre in New York City. AFP
A worker cleans along the Las Vegas Strip devoid of the usual crowds as casinos and other business are shuttered due to the coronavirus outbreak. AP
Members of the US Army Corps of Engineer Research Development Centre’s Directorate of Public Works construct two temporary hospital room prototypes in Vicksburg. The Vicksburg Post via AP
Carol Talkington helps Terri Bonasso tape a notice on the emergency room door following a vigil at the closing of the Fairmont Regional Medical Centre in Fairmont. Times-West Virginian via AP
A motel sign is lit along a quiet Sunset Boulevard at dusk amid the coronavirus pandemic on March 31, 2020 in Los Angeles. AFP
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks during a virtual press briefing on March 25, 2020. Bloomberg
Republican minority rule is hardly without consequences, especially profound economic impact. The five-member Republican majority in the Supreme Court – itself established by Mr McConnell's unprecedented and successful ploy of ignoring a well-qualified Democratic nominee for almost a year in hopes of adding another Republican instead – is aggressively conservative and seems fully committed to expanding Republican power.
The court could soon strike down the well-established constitutional guarantee of a woman's right to reproductive choice, allowing state legislatures to effectively prohibit abortions. In many places, no doubt they will.
But most of the country will not. It will still be the case that while "red" America – constituting a Republican and conservative minority – wields political power, "blue" America – representing a Democratic and liberal majority – largely shapes the far deeper contours of culture and society.
This distinction is especially sharp among younger Americans, where Republican conservatives are an even smaller minority.
So, the US is not becoming an illiberal democracy. In most places, and for most of its citizens, it is still an essentially liberal country with a free press, significant personal freedom, largely functional national and state-level institutions, and a vibrant and viable political opposition.
Yet, many Republican leaders really are seeking to manipulate the US political system to entrench obviously undemocratic minority rule. That is increasingly becoming a reality. Mr Trump could well be re-elected with an even bigger vote deficit than in 2016, and that prospect is just the tip of a vast undemocratic iceberg.
Between the White House, the Senate and several key states, minority rule is no longer an American anomaly. Unless the evident Democratic majority reasserts itself nationally in November, or an unexpected Republican majority suddenly materialises, the US will take another major step to becoming a full-fledged liberal non-democracy.
Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
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Multitasking pays off for money goals
Tackling money goals one at a time cost financial literacy expert Barbara O'Neill at least $1 million.
That's how much Ms O'Neill, a distinguished professor at Rutgers University in the US, figures she lost by starting saving for retirement only after she had created an emergency fund, bought a car with cash and purchased a home.
"I tell students that eventually, 30 years later, I hit the million-dollar mark, but I could've had $2 million," Ms O'Neill says.
Too often, financial experts say, people want to attack their money goals one at a time: "As soon as I pay off my credit card debt, then I'll start saving for a home," or, "As soon as I pay off my student loan debt, then I'll start saving for retirement"."
People do not realise how costly the words "as soon as" can be. Paying off debt is a worthy goal, but it should not come at the expense of other goals, particularly saving for retirement. The sooner money is contributed, the longer it can benefit from compounded returns. Compounded returns are when your investment gains earn their own gains, which can dramatically increase your balances over time.
"By putting off saving for the future, you are really inhibiting yourself from benefiting from that wonderful magic," says Kimberly Zimmerman Rand , an accredited financial counsellor and principal at Dragonfly Financial Solutions in Boston. "If you can start saving today ... you are going to have a lot more five years from now than if you decide to pay off debt for three years and start saving in year four."
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
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