An endangered Mouflon sheep runs inside the UN-controlled buffer zone that divide the Greek and Turkish areas of Cyprus. AP
An endangered Mouflon sheep runs inside the UN-controlled buffer zone that divide the Greek and Turkish areas of Cyprus. AP
An endangered Mouflon sheep runs inside the UN-controlled buffer zone that divide the Greek and Turkish areas of Cyprus. AP
An endangered Mouflon sheep runs inside the UN-controlled buffer zone that divide the Greek and Turkish areas of Cyprus. AP

Is a two-state Cyprus a real possibility?


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If you have spent time on the island of Cyprus you are likely aware of locals’ predilection for salty, squeaky halloumi cheese, eaten grilled, pan-fried or occasionally fresh. Mostly made from sheep and goat’s milk, it appears on nearly every menu across the EU-member Republic of Cyprus and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), where it is called hellim.

More than one in five Turkish Cypriots are financially dependent on halloumi, which accounts for 36 per cent of TRNC exports despite a block on shipments to the EU. This month the European Commission moved to change that by registering halloumi as a protected designation of origin (PDO) for all producers on the island, which has been divided since a 1974 Turkish military invasion sought to head off an Athens-backed coup.

As with Prosciutto Toscano, champagne or Parma ham, products given this status can only be labelled as such when made in their designated place of origin. Turkish Cypriots are seen as the main beneficiary, as the Republic of Cyprus has long been exporting halloumi to its fellow EU members, including 33,000 tonnes in 2019. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell welcomed the move as a positive step in advance of next week’s talks in Geneva, to be attended by TRNC, Cyprus, Greece, the UK, and Turkey, with the UN as observer.

Tensions in the eastern Mediterranean have been high since at least 2018, when Turkey began sending drill ships accompanied by naval vessels to drill for natural gas in waters claimed by Cyprus and Greece. Ankara’s moves brought it to the brink of war with Athens last summer. Tempers had cooled in recent months as Turkey kept its boats in port and the two neighbours began exploratory talks.

Tensions in the eastern Mediterranean have been high since at least 2018

But at a joint press conference with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu in Ankara on Thursday, Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias warned of EU sanctions “if Turkey continues violating our sovereign rights”. Mr Cavusoglu later said his counterpart had “crossed the line”. The two agreed to talk more in Geneva, but did not announce the widely anticipated summit between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, hinting at lingering agitation.

Next week’s informal Cyprus talks will mark the first since 2017, when hopes for a resolution were high following the election of TRNC President Mustafa Akinci, who had long advocated for reunification. When talks broke down, most observers blamed Greek Cypriot negotiators for an unwillingness to budge.

Turkey is the only country that recognises the TRNC, and keeps some 40,000 troops there. Last October, TRNC voters elected a new president, Ersin Tatar, who shares Ankara’s view that a two-state solution is the only way to resolve the nearly 50-year-old dispute.

Turkish-Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar (R) speaks during a joint press conference with Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu in the northern part of Cyprus' divided capital Nicosia, under control of the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of North Cyprus (TRNC), on April 16, 2021. AFP
Turkish-Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar (R) speaks during a joint press conference with Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu in the northern part of Cyprus' divided capital Nicosia, under control of the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of North Cyprus (TRNC), on April 16, 2021. AFP

Cyprus, Greece and the EU advocate a bizonal federation, a single state with significant autonomy for the north. Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades has said he is ready to resume talks, but Cyprus and Greece have both rejected the possibility of a sovereign northern Cypriot state.

Long-time Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktas was among those who initially proposed a joint federation in the 1d960s, years before the island’s division. Mr Denktas later became the first TRNC president. He and successive Turkish Cypriot leaders advocated and negotiated for some form of federation for more than half a century, with little result.

A decade ago many observers thought the discovery of natural gas around the island might help resolve the dispute, as investors would require a stable and prosperous state. But following a price decline, the market for eastern Mediterranean gas is widely seen as limited.

Workers sort halloumi cheese at the Petrou Bros Dairy in Aradippou, Cyprus, April 2. Reuters
Workers sort halloumi cheese at the Petrou Bros Dairy in Aradippou, Cyprus, April 2. Reuters

One way to boost that market is collaboration: Cyprus has joined Greece, Israel, Egypt and others in a regional gas forum; and there’s talk of Ankara joining as well if it is able to improve ties with Cairo. At landmark talks with Israel, the UAE and Greece on Friday in Paphos, Greek Cypriot Foreign Minister Nikos Christodoulides said the eastern Mediterranean had begun to shift away from its narrative of conflict thanks to an “evolving web of regional co-operation.”

Greek Cypriots have, however, resisted co-operation with the TRNC, perhaps out of fear that any concession might further encourage Ankara. A Greek Cypriot petition launched this month urges residents to support reunification or face the “risk of the whole of Cyprus falling into the hands of Turkey.”

This has echoes of the far-right Alternative for Germany party warning of Muslim immigrants turning Europe into “Eurabia”. Little surprise, then, that the Cyprus branch of a former Greek neo-Nazi party has begun to emerge, and many Turkish Cypriots and Turks see Nicosia as in thrall to an orientalist EU and Greece.

"They never ever wanted to share the resources of the island, power and sovereignty with the Turkish Cypriots," Turkish columnist Yusuf Kanli wrote in a recent column for pro-government Hurriyet Daily news. "The Greek Cypriots refused to treat the Turkish Cypriots as their political equals".

(L-R) Cypriot Foreign minister Nicos Chrisodoulides, Greek Foreign minister Nikos Dendias, Israel Foreign minister Gabi Ashkenazi and Anwar Gargash, Diplomatic Adviser to UAE President Sheikh Khalifa, hold a joint news conference following their meeting in Paphos, Cyprus, 16 April 2021. EPA
(L-R) Cypriot Foreign minister Nicos Chrisodoulides, Greek Foreign minister Nikos Dendias, Israel Foreign minister Gabi Ashkenazi and Anwar Gargash, Diplomatic Adviser to UAE President Sheikh Khalifa, hold a joint news conference following their meeting in Paphos, Cyprus, 16 April 2021. EPA

An article in the British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies this month argued that Ankara’s Cyprus policy had become intertwined with its domestic efforts to shape a nationalist-Islamist identity. On the weekend, Mr Erdogan rebuked the TRNC’s top court for barring the country’s religious affairs office, which is heavily influenced by Ankara, from organising Quran courses. The Turkish president warned of repercussions, while his Communications Director Fahrettin Altun called the move “a judicial coup against freedom of religion”.

Despite such pressures, Turkish Cypriots have mostly come to share Ankara's view that Nicosia has been unwilling to compromise, leading many to take a harder line. Negotiations have never seriously considered a two-state solution, but that does not mean they never will. “We will no longer waste time on the federal solution," Mr Cavusoglu said of the upcoming talks after meeting with Tatar on the weekend. “New ideas and new vision should be discussed.”

A January 2020 poll revealed more than 81 per cent support for a two-state solution among Turkish Cypriots. Around the same time, 28 per cent of Greek Cypriots expressed a willingness to tolerate such a solution, which suggests it’s not a total non-starter.

What about the power of halloumi? Mr Christodoulides has said PDO status could encourage reconciliation. Due to bureaucratic hurdles, trade across the UN-monitored Green Line is just 6.3 million euros per year. But the halloumi market has been growing steadily and the Turkish Cypriot Chamber of Commerce agreed that PDO status could enhance economic cooperation between the two sides.

Not so fast. TRNC Foreign Minister Tahsin Ertugruloglu described the halloumi move as “a disgraceful attempt...to dominate the political will” of TRNC. Under the measure TRNC-based producers will be able to sell to EU states, but only by first sending their hellim into Cyprus.

What’s more, the Cyprus Turkish Chamber of Industry pointed out that the UK, the colonial power in Cyprus until 1960, accounts for more than half of EU imports of halloumi. No longer an EU member, the UK already receives shipments of TRNC hellim, so the north’s gains from PDO status may be minimal.

Europe’s stab at cheese diplomacy may have spoiled, but the Geneva talks still offer a real opportunity to inch closer to a resolution.

David Lepeska is a Turkish and Eastern Mediterranean affairs columnist for The National

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FANS WILL LOVE
Uber is ridiculously cheap and, as Diego Saez discovered, mush safer. A 45-minute taxi from Pulova airport to Saint Petersburg’s Nevsky Prospect can cost as little as 500 roubles (Dh30).

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Uber policy in Russia is that they can start the fare as soon as they arrive at the pick-up point — and oftentimes they start it even before arriving, or worse never arrive yet charge you anyway.

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It’s amazing how active Russians are on social media and your accounts will surge should you post while in the country. Throw in a few Cyrillic hashtags and watch your account numbers rocket.

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With cold soups, bland dumplings and dried fish, Russian cuisine is not to everybody’s tastebuds.  Fortunately, there are plenty Georgian restaurants to choose from, which are both excellent and economical.

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Dirham Stretcher tips for having a baby in the UAE

Selma Abdelhamid, the group's moderator, offers her guide to guide the cost of having a young family:

• Buy second hand stuff

 They grow so fast. Don't get a second hand car seat though, unless you 100 per cent know it's not expired and hasn't been in an accident.

• Get a health card and vaccinate your child for free at government health centres

 Ms Ma says she discovered this after spending thousands on vaccinations at private clinics.

• Join mum and baby coffee mornings provided by clinics, babysitting companies or nurseries.

Before joining baby classes ask for a free trial session. This way you will know if it's for you or not. You'll be surprised how great some classes are and how bad others are.

• Once baby is ready for solids, cook at home

Take the food with you in reusable pouches or jars. You'll save a fortune and you'll know exactly what you're feeding your child.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Day 2, stumps

Pakistan 482

Australia 30/0 (13 ov)

Australia trail by 452 runs with 10 wickets remaining in the innings