Iran’s leaders believe that cornering US President Donald Trump with a series of provocations will weaken his re-election chances, assuming he would have to back down to avoid taking major risks before Election Day on November 3. But they are greatly mistaken. Iran would be misreading both the American and European positions if its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were to engage in a confrontation with, say, Israel or the Gulf countries.
The European Council leaders will meet in Brussels on Thursday and Friday to discuss, among other things, the continent's fraying relations with neighbours Russia and Turkey. They may also have a debate on the 2015 nuclear deal, which the western powers signed with Iran in 2015 but looks in jeopardy for a combination of reasons. The Europeans are aware of likely Iranian retaliation should they rethink their commitment to the agreement. But they also realise that sanctions deployed by the US have proved punishing for the regime in Tehran, and may impose some of their own.
The Trump administration, meanwhile, intends to step up sanctions on Iran as well as on countries aiming to sell weapons to it after October 18, when China and Russia are expected to block American efforts to extend the arms embargo against Tehran at the UN Security Council. America's hardline stance, in other words, could have short- and long-term implications for the world – especially the Middle East.
Some European powers are expected to throw their weight behind a new resolution reaffirming the nuclear deal, as a means to absorb Iran’s anger at US sanctions that might come into effect in October. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has hinted at the possibility of returning to the Security Council to make another case for the arms embargo before it expires – even though vetoes from China and Russia might be inevitable at this stage. In which case, Washington might sell to its public a narrative that, by letting the embargo expire, Beijing and Moscow are effectively aiding Iranian transgressions in the Middle East, as well as its nuclear and ballistic programmes. This could be the way it makes the argument for imposing fresh sanctions against Iran and the two powers.
My conversations with experts in the US lead me to believe that some of these sanctions would all but cut off Iran from the rest of the world. And yet, the US realises that the time has not yet come to punish Iran and China for their new security pact. It has prioritised imposing sanctions in the foreseeable future, but its endgame would be to force China to disengage with Iran.
Tehran is in a conundrum less than two months before the US election. One segment of its leadership has argued for patience and prudence until it is over, while the other has sought confrontation and provocation. Whatever be its strategy to undermine Mr Trump’s re-election bid, it must know that US policy towards the regime is unlikely to change even if the current incumbent loses.
Some in Iran assume that Mr Biden will revive the nuclear deal and spare the country of sanctions. But this reflects a misunderstanding of American policy, some which has been baked into US law, leaving Mr Biden with little chance to overrule them – even if he wanted to do so. On the contrary, it might be naive to expect Mr Biden to reach out to the regime.
Joe Biden, right, is unlikely to be any friendlier towards Iran than US President Donald Trump is, if he wins the November election. AP Photo
America’s electoral landscape indicates that Iran will be the Trump administration’s top target in the run-up to the election. The administration may even benefit from its likely failure to convince China, Russia and the Europeans to allow the extension of the arms embargo. Mr Trump will use it as ammunition to make the case for his hardline stance.
Mr Trump’s campaign team will encourage him to paint Iran and China as America’s biggest enemies. The Gulf-Israeli peace deals, brokered by his administration and signed in Washington, are also likely to favour the President in the upcoming debates with Mr Biden.
Apart from giving Mr Trump a win, the Abraham Accord has also come as a shock to Iran. The regime did not expect it would happen, and now it finds – no doubt to its chagrin – a largely positive reaction across the Arab and Islamic worlds. The regime has lost a strategic asset: Islamic anger. It will continue to bank on the support of proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, which probably explains the recent visit to Beirut by Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh at Hezbollah’s invitation. But Iran must know that popular support for its continued exploitation of the Palestinian cause is waning.
Iran's other problem is that, even though the European Union might be careful how it plays its cards, there remains the likelihood of sanctions in the future for its destabilising operations in the Middle East, including inside Lebanon.
At the first e-policy circle of the Beirut Institute Summit in Abu Dhabi, Michelle Bachelet, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, reminded the international community to place human rights at the centre of its efforts to pressure the Lebanese political class to legislate and enact sweeping reforms, following the fatal Beirut Port blast a little more than a month ago.
For his part, Peter Maurer, president of the International Committee of the Red Cross, blamed “governance weakness and failures as an origin of humanitarian needs” for the situation in Lebanon. But he also expressed frustration at the international community’s lack of action regarding what he called the “strategic neglect of Lebanon and the Lebanese people”.
Given Iran's influence in Lebanon, the Europeans will be closely watching its actions there, particularly on the back of French efforts to press for political and economic reforms – something Tehran does not desire. Don't entirely rule out Lebanon becoming a point of discussion at the Brussels summit.
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute
While the taste of beans and freshness of roast is paramount to the specialty coffee scene, so is sustainability and workers’ rights.
The bulk of genuine specialty coffee companies aim to improve on these elements in every stage of production via direct relationships with farmers. For instance, Mokha 1450 on Al Wasl Road strives to work predominantly with women-owned and -operated coffee organisations, including female farmers in the Sabree mountains of Yemen.
Because, as the boutique’s owner, Garfield Kerr, points out: “women represent over 90 per cent of the coffee value chain, but are woefully underrepresented in less than 10 per cent of ownership and management throughout the global coffee industry.”
One of the UAE’s largest suppliers of green (meaning not-yet-roasted) beans, Raw Coffee, is a founding member of the Partnership of Gender Equity, which aims to empower female coffee farmers and harvesters.
Also, globally, many companies have found the perfect way to recycle old coffee grounds: they create the perfect fertile soil in which to grow mushrooms.
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl) – 1
Marriage Story – 1
Rocketman – 1
The Neighbors' Window – 1
Toy Story 4 – 1
What is the FNC?
The Federal National Council is one of five federal authorities established by the UAE constitution. It held its first session on December 2, 1972, a year to the day after Federation.
It has 40 members, eight of whom are women. The members represent the UAE population through each of the emirates. Abu Dhabi and Dubai have eight members each, Sharjah and Ras al Khaimah six, and Ajman, Fujairah and Umm Al Quwain have four.
They bring Emirati issues to the council for debate and put those concerns to ministers summoned for questioning.
The FNC’s main functions include passing, amending or rejecting federal draft laws, discussing international treaties and agreements, and offering recommendations on general subjects raised during sessions.
Federal draft laws must first pass through the FNC for recommendations when members can amend the laws to suit the needs of citizens. The draft laws are then forwarded to the Cabinet for consideration and approval.
Since 2006, half of the members have been elected by UAE citizens to serve four-year terms and the other half are appointed by the Ruler’s Courts of the seven emirates.
In the 2015 elections, 78 of the 252 candidates were women. Women also represented 48 per cent of all voters and 67 per cent of the voters were under the age of 40.
Muslim Council of Elders condemns terrorism on religious sites
The Muslim Council of Elders has strongly condemned the criminal attacks on religious sites in Britain.
It firmly rejected “acts of terrorism, which constitute a flagrant violation of the sanctity of houses of worship”.
“Attacking places of worship is a form of terrorism and extremism that threatens peace and stability within societies,” it said.
The council also warned against the rise of hate speech, racism, extremism and Islamophobia. It urged the international community to join efforts to promote tolerance and peaceful coexistence.
Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
German plea
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the German parliament that. Russia had erected a new wall across Europe.
"It's not a Berlin Wall -- it is a Wall in central Europe between freedom and bondage and this Wall is growing bigger with every bomb" dropped on Ukraine, Zelenskyy told MPs.
Mr Zelenskyy was applauded by MPs in the Bundestag as he addressed Chancellor Olaf Scholz directly.
"Dear Mr Scholz, tear down this Wall," he said, evoking US President Ronald Reagan's 1987 appeal to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev at Berlin's Brandenburg Gate.
'Champions'
Director: Manuel Calvo Stars: Yassir Al Saggaf and Fatima Al Banawi Rating: 2/5
Cyber crime - This includes fraud, impersonation, scams and deepfake technology, tactics that are increasingly targeting infrastructure and exploiting human vulnerabilities. Cyber terrorism - Social media platforms are used to spread radical ideologies, misinformation and disinformation, often with the aim of disrupting critical infrastructure such as power grids. Cyber warfare - Shaped by geopolitical tension, hostile actors seek to infiltrate and compromise national infrastructure, using one country’s systems as a springboard to launch attacks on others.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
How the UAE gratuity payment is calculated now
Employees leaving an organisation are entitled to an end-of-service gratuity after completing at least one year of service.
The tenure is calculated on the number of days worked and does not include lengthy leave periods, such as a sabbatical. If you have worked for a company between one and five years, you are paid 21 days of pay based on your final basic salary. After five years, however, you are entitled to 30 days of pay. The total lump sum you receive is based on the duration of your employment.
1. For those who have worked between one and five years, on a basic salary of Dh10,000 (calculation based on 30 days):
a. Dh10,000 ÷ 30 = Dh333.33. Your daily wage is Dh333.33
b. Dh333.33 x 21 = Dh7,000. So 21 days salary equates to Dh7,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service. Multiply this figure for every year of service up to five years.
2. For those who have worked more than five years
c. 333.33 x 30 = Dh10,000. So 30 days’ salary is Dh10,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service.
Note: The maximum figure cannot exceed two years total salary figure.
Men’s:
Mohamed El Shorbagy (EGY)
Ali Farag (EGY)
Simon Rosner (GER)
Tarek Momen (EGY)
Miguel Angel Rodriguez (COL)
Gregory Gaultier (FRA)
Karim Abdel Gawad (EGY)
Nick Matthew (ENG)
Women's:
Nour El Sherbini (EGY)
Raneem El Welily (EGY)
Nour El Tayeb (EGY)
Laura Massaro (ENG)
Joelle King (NZE)
Camille Serme (FRA)
Nouran Gohar (EGY)
Sarah-Jane Perry (ENG)
