Westminster’s hardiest truism is that Conservative governments are brought down by sex scandals and Labour administrations by money.
Controversy surrounding leading ministers last week opened up a circular firing squad around Theresa May, a hapless figure marooned in Downing Street.
Many prime ministers have clung to power when the last vestiges of real authority has gone. Yet Mrs May resembles the falling body breaking through multiple trap doors.
In treacherous times, every slip has consequences. With a proto-Communist opposition lurking in the wings, Britain is at its most dangerous juncture since the 1970s.
It is tempting to think the latest scandal is the high point of the cycle of scandal. Power provides a veil for those at the pinnacle and that makes it hard to gauge the acute danger of the moment.
Gordon Brown, Mrs May's predecessor but one, reveals in his new memoir My Life, Our Time, that he was almost physically blind when the similarly toxic expenses scandal blew up in 2009.
The dark and complex Mr Brown was often said to have been haunted by the loss of an eye as a young rugby-playing man. However, in his own book he reveals that in September 2009 he could “see very little” as the other eye faltered. At one point Mr Brown had to pretend he was reading a speech as he recited from memory.
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A gaffe caused by vision problems would have finished him off. The expenses scandal exposed a government incapable of basic leadership. The public perception was that his administration was interested in its own survival and little else.
Incumbents can weather almost any immediate crisis and survive. Yet with Mrs May there is particular cause to fear that her demise could come more suddenly than even that of Mr Brown.
A forced resignation of Michael Fallon, her defence minister, knocked away a pillar of stability in the cabinet. Ministers are openly trading bitter accusations of treachery. By promoting her own favourite, Gavin Williamson, as the new defence chief, Mrs May has invited scheming colleagues to seek a moment of revenge.
Look beyond the personnel involved and the overall circumstances she faces are dire.
As investigations were launched last week into funding of the 2016 Brexit referendum, it is now becoming clearer that Russian interference on the right of British politics parallels the destabilisation exercise in the United States.
Should the government fall, the Conservative Party can no longer be seen as an automatic bulwark of power, dominant from the right to the centre.
On the left, Mrs May faces a Labour Party cunningly led by organisers and campaigners. Veterans of the politics of mobilising for a cause surround Jeremy Corbyn. These revolutionaries are attuned to the times.
Conservative weakness and the flux of events is their golden opportunity. A generational divide is the new rift around which politics is reforming. The narrative of establishment decay and leadership chaos is tailor-made for mobilising voters around a new direction for Britain.
The inexorable pressures of negotiating Brexit intensifies these trends. It constrains the Conservatives from offering anything other than managerial truisms that cannot satisfy the radical mood.
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Once in power Mr Corbyn has a platform to take Britain down the path taken by Venezuela and other failed leftist economies.
The phrase it couldn’t happen here no longer applies to our times. As such the question of Conservative collapse reverberates beyond the national borders.
The shift would be both swift and decisive.
The Labour budget programme is already well known. John McDonnell, the ideologue in charge of Labour policy, has been working on his plans for decades.
His blueprints involve a massive debt-based investment spree piled on top of heavy government expenditure on welfare.
As the economy is only just moving off ultra-low interest rates and massive asset price inflation, Mr McDonnell's home-cooked recipes would be the equivalent of a fuel-air mixed economic explosion.
The collapse of public faith in globalisation, international trade, private investment and free markets compounds the vulnerability to Mr Corbyn’s experiments. A disorderly withdrawal from Europe in these circumstances would rank merely as a contributor to British collapse, not the primary cause.
On the top deck of a London bus this week, a Ukrainian MP and Pakistani MP discussed the resignation of London’s defence minister in bemusement. “In my country the defence minister would stay in his job and say he would wait for the court to decide,” said the Ukrainian. The Pakistan delegate was a little more blunt. “In my country this wouldn’t happen,” he replied.
Compared to the rest of their conversation about nuclear non-proliferation, the exchange seemed trivial.
One the great features of Britain's resilient democracy is that the rotten are cleared out when their faults are exposed. The stakes in the current crisis could not be greater.
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I/O: Thunderbolt 3 (2), 3.5mm audio, Touch ID
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Video: Support for Apple ProRes, HDR with Dolby Vision, HDR10
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STAR WARS JEDI: SURVIVOR
Developer: Respawn Entertainment
Publisher: Electronic Arts
Consoles: PC, Playstation 5, Xbox Series X and S
Rating: 4/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
PROFILE OF INVYGO
Started: 2018
Founders: Eslam Hussein and Pulkit Ganjoo
Based: Dubai
Sector: Transport
Size: 9 employees
Investment: $1,275,000
Investors: Class 5 Global, Equitrust, Gulf Islamic Investments, Kairos K50 and William Zeqiri
SPEC SHEET: SAMSUNG GALAXY S23 ULTRA
Display: 6.8" edge quad-HD+ dynamic Amoled 2X, Infinity-O, 3088 x 1440, 500ppi, HDR10+, 120Hz
Processor: 4nm Qualcomm Snapdragon 8 Gen 2, 64-bit octa-core
Memory: 8/12GB RAM
Storage: 128/256/512GB/1TB (only 128GB has an 8GB RAM option)
Platform: Android 13
Main camera: quad 12MP ultra-wide f/2.2 + 200MP wide f/1.7 + 10MP telephoto f/4.9 + 10MP telephoto 2.4; 3x/10x optical zoom, Space Zoom up to 100x; auto HDR, expert RAW
Video: 8K@24/30fps, 4K@60fps, full-HD@60fps, HD@30fps, full-HD super slo-mo@960fps
Front camera: 12MP f/2.2
Battery: 5000mAh, fast wireless charging 2.0, Wireless PowerShare
Connectivity: 5G, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth 5.2, NFC
I/O: USB-C; built-in Galaxy S Pen
SIM: single nano / nano + eSIM / nano + nano + eSIM / nano + nano
Colours: cream, green, lavender, phantom black; online exclusives: graphite, lime, red, sky blue
Price: Dh4,949 for 256GB, Dh5,449 for 512GB, Dh6,449 for 1TB; 128GB unavailable in the UAE
The specs: 2018 Chevrolet Trailblazer
Price, base / as tested Dh99,000 / Dh132,000
Engine 3.6L V6
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Power 275hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 350Nm @ 3,700rpm
Fuel economy combined 12.2L / 100km
Nepotism is the name of the game
Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad.