For weeks now, the last rebel stronghold in Syria has been anticipating an inevitable assault.
Ever since the Assad regime retook Ghouta and the southern province of Deraa, Idlib in the northwest of the country has been expecting an attack. At the end of July, Bashar Al Assad was explicit: "Idlib is our goal. And not just Idlib. We will be moving into all these regions." The Syrian army has accordingly been taking positions on the borders of the province.
Then, last week, there seemed to be a reprieve. Russia's Syrian envoy, Alexander Lavrentiev, said there were no plans for a major assault on the province and that he hoped the Turkish side could "manage it".
For the estimated two million who live in Idlib, however, those words will provide scant reassurance. A day after the Russian envoy's statement, a Syrian official said the province would be returned to government control by force. The threat of force still hangs over the province, whether it is the spectre of widespread violence on the ground or air assaults by Russian and Syrian air forces. One way or another, the assault on Idlib is coming.
For now, Turkey is seeking to stave off an air assault. For the first time in many months, Turkey is on the back foot in Syria. Previously the country was able to impose its policy priorities over Syrian territory. But now Ankara finds itself in an unusually weak position.
Faced with the possibility of a prolonged assault on Idlib and potentially hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees streaming across the border into its territory, Turkey is preparing to do Damascus’s dirty work.
At a meeting in the Russian city of Sochi last week, Ankara appeared to have agreed to keep the peace throughout the province, where it maintains a substantial presence and where it has close links with the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Keeping the peace means keeping apart regime forces, rebel groups and the militants of Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS), a former Al Qaeda affiliate, while also trying to eliminate remnants of ISIS. If it can do that, it might be able to stave off the possibility of a Russian and Syrian air assault.
Yet that is no easy task. The retaking of Deraa sparked a war in Idlib between the FSA rebels, HTS and ISIS. Over the past few weeks, as it became clear the regime would turn its attention to Idlib, the groups have been attacking each other and conducting graphic assassinations, clearing the field for whatever comes next. Turkey is now the middle of it, aware that if it cannot keep the peace, it will allow the regime a pretext to attack and retake the province.
This is a deadly position for Ankara but it has been forced into it because – paradoxically – maintaining its control over Idlib province is the only way to remove itself from the Syrian war.
If Turkey can maintain its influence in the province and institute some form of de facto borders, that could create the conditions for Syrian refugees inside Turkey to return to Syrian territory but still under Turkish protection. Faced with increasing tensions at home, Turkey would prefer the refugees to return. That's why Ankara is now pushing for a major security conference which would bring together all the anti-regime groups in Idlib under a Turkish-led military force. There is even talk of a civilian administration inside the province to keep basic services running.
And yet it is precisely this road map to resolving the crisis that makes it all but inevitable that Idlib will be attacked.
Idlib province stretches from the outskirts of Aleppo to the mountains of Latakia. The main Damascus to Aleppo highway passes for 100km through it. Re-opening that road was one of the major, tangible achievements of the Russia-led Astana process. To allow Idlib to remain outside the control of the regime would be to allow a Turkish hand – or, worse, that of a rebel or militant group – at the throat of the country's most vital highway.
The same applies to Russia's military base of Khmeimim, nearby in Latakia province. Already, the Russians have complained of drone attacks on the base from Idlib. To allow Turkey so close to Khmeimim or to the Alawites in Latakia, the Assad regime's heartland, would be politically reckless. Both Mr Al Assad and Vladimir Putin know how quickly alliances can turn into a complicated battleground and neither is likely to countenance the risk.
An assault on Idlib, then, is almost inevitable, whether it comes in the next few weeks or much later, and whether Turkey succeeds or not in rooting out ISIS.
Russia will always maintain the option of retaking the province. For the regime, it is essential. Mr Al Assad will seek to take it back, whether he does so in one assault or by gradually picking off parts of the province, shrinking the space in which the Turks can operate. That, in fact, was the reasoning behind the chemical attack on Khan Sheikhoun last year, which sits at the very southern tip of the province.
For many years, Idlib was used as a safe haven for rebel forces from the rest of Syria. Now it is firmly in the crosshairs of the regime, a crucial province that will stop Turkey from redrawing the map of Syria. Whether it is picked off piece by piece or bombed from the skies, the regime is committed to taking it back from Turkish control.
It Was Just an Accident
Director: Jafar Panahi
Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr
Rating: 4/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Who has been sanctioned?
Daniella Weiss and Nachala
Described as 'the grandmother of the settler movement', she has encouraged the expansion of settlements for decades. The 79 year old leads radical settler movement Nachala, whose aim is for Israel to annex Gaza and the occupied West Bank, where it helps settlers built outposts.
Harel Libi & Libi Construction and Infrastructure
Libi has been involved in threatening and perpetuating acts of aggression and violence against Palestinians. His firm has provided logistical and financial support for the establishment of illegal outposts.
Zohar Sabah
Runs a settler outpost named Zohar’s Farm and has previously faced charges of violence against Palestinians. He was indicted by Israel’s State Attorney’s Office in September for allegedly participating in a violent attack against Palestinians and activists in the West Bank village of Muarrajat.
Coco’s Farm and Neria’s Farm
These are illegal outposts in the West Bank, which are at the vanguard of the settler movement. According to the UK, they are associated with people who have been involved in enabling, inciting, promoting or providing support for activities that amount to “serious abuse”.
MATCH INFO
Watford 2 (Sarr 50', Deeney 54' pen)
Manchester United 0
The years Ramadan fell in May
Key recommendations
- Fewer criminals put behind bars and more to serve sentences in the community, with short sentences scrapped and many inmates released earlier.
- Greater use of curfews and exclusion zones to deliver tougher supervision than ever on criminals.
- Explore wider powers for judges to punish offenders by blocking them from attending football matches, banning them from driving or travelling abroad through an expansion of ‘ancillary orders’.
- More Intensive Supervision Courts to tackle the root causes of crime such as alcohol and drug abuse – forcing repeat offenders to take part in tough treatment programmes or face prison.
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The Africa Institute 101
Housed on the same site as the original Africa Hall, which first hosted an Arab-African Symposium in 1976, the newly renovated building will be home to a think tank and postgraduate studies hub (it will offer master’s and PhD programmes). The centre will focus on both the historical and contemporary links between Africa and the Gulf, and will serve as a meeting place for conferences, symposia, lectures, film screenings, plays, musical performances and more. In fact, today it is hosting a symposium – 5-plus-1: Rethinking Abstraction that will look at the six decades of Frank Bowling’s career, as well as those of his contemporaries that invested social, cultural and personal meaning into abstraction.
House-hunting
Top 10 locations for inquiries from US house hunters, according to Rightmove
- Edinburgh, Scotland
- Westminster, London
- Camden, London
- Glasgow, Scotland
- Islington, London
- Kensington and Chelsea, London
- Highlands, Scotland
- Argyll and Bute, Scotland
- Fife, Scotland
- Tower Hamlets, London
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
MATCH INFO
Sheffield United 0 Wolves 2 (Jimenez 3', Saiss 6)
Man of the Match Romain Saiss (Wolves)
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%204-cyl%20turbo%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E190hp%20at%205%2C600rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E320Nm%20at%201%2C500-4%2C000rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E10.9L%2F100km%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh119%2C900%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Settlers
Director: Louis Theroux
Starring: Daniella Weiss, Ari Abramowitz
Rating: 5/5
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg
Rating: 4/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
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Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions