Can Yoshihide Suga step out of Shinzo Abe's shadow (and does he want to)?

Japan's longest-serving prime minister will be a hard act to follow. His successor should not even try

Yoshihide Suga is all set to become the 63rd man to serve as Prime Minister of Japan. Reuters

On Wednesday, less than three weeks after Shinzo Abe's resignation, Japan is all set to get a new prime minister. Yoshihide Suga's confirmation by vote in the National Diet, the country's legislature, will be considered a mere formality. So was his election on Monday as president of the Liberal Democratic Party, Japan's all-powerful ruling party that dominates not just the Diet but politics across the length and breadth of the country.

Mr Suga’s margin of victory over former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba and former foreign minister Fumio Kishida to become the LDP’s head was jaw-dropping, clinching the support of 377 of the 534 officials who were eligible to vote. But it does not necessarily mean that he is his party’s best candidate for the top job. He is simply its safest. The backroom machinations that paved the way for a Suga takeover of the party – and by extension, the premiership of Japan – have also raised eyebrows among the LDP’s rank and file and in the wider electorate. For a country that is struggling to overcome a health and economic crises, Monday’s result could be a consequential one.

To cut a long story short, the LDP's highest permanent decision-making body determined to call a special, closed election to pick the president – rather than throw it open to every card-carrying member of the party, as has been standard practice. Only the 393 Diet members and 141 representatives of the country's 47 provinces (called prefectures) could vote. Mr Abe's abrupt resignation forced this emergency procedure, the council argued, and his successor needed to be picked quickly at a time of great duress for the country and the world.

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  Japan's former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba is seen as seen as a strong orator with significant political experience. AFP

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  Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso became prime minister in 2008 but stepped down after the Liberal Democratic Party suffered a historic defeat the following year. AFP

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  Defence Minister Taro Kono formerly served as Japan's foreign minister and is a passionate opponent of nuclear power. AFP

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  Fumio Kishida, also a former foreign minister, currently serves as policy chief in the Liberal Democratic Party. AFP

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  Japan's Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga is a self-made politician and trusted adviser to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. AFP / JJiji Press

The LDP establishmentarians’ evident rush to anoint Mr Suga is a testament to his clout in the party. It also speaks to their desire for continuity and stability, given his long years spent in the Abe government. Most crucially, however, it is their fear of Mr Ishiba that forced the council’s hand. Mr Ishiba is a popular politician with considerable intellectual heft and political experience, but he is reviled by the Abe acolytes. He is seen as someone who would not hesitate to rock the boat, beginning by rolling back some of Mr Abe’s policies, and perhaps even investigating the scandals that erupted during his tenure.

While it is hard to say whether the outcome of a normal intra-party election would have been different, the contest itself would have been more even. And given how divergent the leadership styles and priorities of Mr Suga and Mr Ishiba have proved to be over the years, one can safely assume that the result will have direct bearing on how Japan is governed over the next few months, if not years.

This is not to suggest that Mr Suga would perform poorly as Prime Minister.

For a start, his life story and work ethic deserve acknowledgement. The son of a strawberry farmer, he does not belong to a political dynasty, which is seen as a helpful starting point in Japanese politics. A man who begins his day by doing a hundred sit-ups and ends it with another hundred – despite working long hours in between – clearly has the drive, the focus, the grit, and the stamina to rise to the top.

Indeed, aside from his political smarts, these are only some of the qualities, that have made Mr Suga a seasoned career politician, and an able administrator, who was widely regarded as the second-most powerful man in the Abe cabinet for almost a decade.

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  Shinzo Abe bows after stepping down as Japan's Prime Minister in Tokyo. Reuters

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  Japan's longest-serving prime minister said Friday he intends to step down because of health problems. AP Photo

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  It's not the first time Shinzo Abe has left office. He stepped down as Japanese Prime Minister on September 12, 2007 after just a year. EPA

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  He reassumed office on December 26, 2012. This file photo taken on December 29, 2012 shows Mr Abe greeting workers at the Tokyo Electric Power Company's (TEPCO) emergency operation centre inside the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Ota. AFP

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  This file photo taken on September 17, 2014 shows Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe driving a combine harvester to crop rice plants in the town of Hirono in Fukushima prefecture. AFP

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  Pope Francis and Shinzo Abe in 2019. AFP

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  Then-South Korean President Roh Moo-Hyun, right, shaking hands with Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (L) during their meeting at the presidential Blue House in Seoul in 2006. AFP

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  With Taro Aso, as deputy PM and finance minister, second left, Mr Abe has instilled "Abenomics" to nourish the country's slowing rate growth with an ageing population. EPA

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  This file photo taken on October 18, 2017 shows Japan's Prime Minister and ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president Shinzo Abe (L) greeting his supporters during an election campaign appearance in Saitama. AFP

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  This file photo taken on September 20, 2018 shows Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe attending a press conference after winning the ruling liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) leadership election at the party’s headquarters in Tokyo. AFP

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  Russian President Vladimir Putin chats with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe during a visit to the Kodokan judo hall in Tokyo in 2016. AFP

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  This file photo taken on August 15, 2005 shows Shinzo Abe (C), then-deputy secretary general for Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), following a Shinto priest after offering prayers for the country's war dead at Tokyo's controversial Yasukuni Shrine. AFP

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  This file photo taken on September 17, 2002 shows Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, accompanied by then-Vice Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe as he leaves Tokyo International Airport for Pyongyang to meet with then-North Korean leader Kim Jong Il. AFP

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  This file photo taken on August 15, 2007 shows Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (R) bowing at the alter as Emperor Akihito (L) and Empress Michiko (C) look on during a memorial ceremony for the national war dead to commemorate the end of World War II. AFP

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  Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe smiles in 2013. EPA

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  Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, second right, wearing protective suit and mask, is briefed about tanks containing radioactive water by Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant chief Akira Ono after the nuclear disaster. REUTERS

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  Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe arrives at a debate with party leaders at Japan National Press Club in Tokyo, Japan, 03 July 2013. EPA

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  This file photo taken on March 6, 2020 shows Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe gesturing as he attends a upper house plenary session at parliament in Tokyo. AFP

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  Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe poses with child actors, members of Japanese idol group Momoiro Clover Z at a cherry blossom viewing party at Shinjuku Gyoen park in Tokyo, Japan. REUTERS

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  Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pours sake for US President Barack Obama as they have dinner at the Sukiyabashi Jiro sushi restaurant in Tokyo. Reuters

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  Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe shakes hands with his supporters after an election campaign rally in Fukushima in 2017. Reuters

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  Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe eats a local grilled fish at the Soma Haragama fishing port in Soma, Fukushima prefecture, December 2, 2014. Reuters

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  Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe shakes hands with US President Donald Trump during their meeting in the Oval Office on February 10, 2017. Reuters

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  Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, left, and President George W Bush, right, attend a joint news conference at Camp David in 2006. AP Photo

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  Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reaches out to shake hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a welcome ceremony for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders Meeting in Beijing in 2014. AP Photo

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  Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe appears as the Nintendo game character Super Mario during the closing ceremony at the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. AP Photo

Mr Suga’s role as chief cabinet secretary was wide-ranging, too. He acted as Mr Abe’s press secretary, advised him on politics as well as policy, co-ordinated policies of his various ministries, and helped the Prime Minister’s Office accumulate an unprecedented amount of power by pushing through bureaucratic reform. It will not be a stretch to say that he largely ran the government from behind the scenes.

Therein, however, lies the problem for Mr Suga. His premiership risks becoming a case of “meet the new boss, same as the old boss”. And until October 2021, when the remainder of Mr Abe's term ends, the new boss will work hard to safeguard the legacy of the old boss – barring any dramas or the likely temptation to call for a snap general election.

Apart from the party’s desire for stability and continuity, there is another reason for Mr Suga to stay the course: if Mr Abe is Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, Mr Suga is the country’s longest-serving chief cabinet secretary. Their record tenures coincided for close to eight years, during which time they worked in tandem.

Together they pursued "Abenomics" that combines fiscal expansion, monetary easing, and structural reform. They expanded Japan’s tourism industry. They also advocated a more assertive and unapologetic Japan, willing to stand up to its neighbours when necessary.

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  A boy helps to clear dirt in front of his grandparents' house following a heavy rain in Hitoyoshi, Kumamoto prefecture, southern Japan on July 4, 2020. Kyodo News via AP

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  A stranded woman is rescued following a heavy rain in Hitoyoshi, Kumamoto prefecture, southern Japan. Kyodo News via AP

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  Workers clean a nursing home following a heavy rain in Ashikita town, Kumamoto prefecture. Kyodo News via AP

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  Police officers look for stranded people on a flooded street in Hitoyoshi, Kumamoto prefecture. Kyodo News via AP

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  A man looks at the overflowing Kuma river caused by heavy rain in Yatsushiro, Kumamoto prefecture. AFP

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  A street is flooded following a heavy rain in Hitoyoshi, Kumamoto prefecture. Kyodo News via AP

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  A minivan drives through a flooded street in Yatsushiro, Kumamoto prefecture. EPA

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  Rising water caused by heavy rain is seen at Kuma river in Yatsushiro, Kumamoto prefecture. AFP

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  Rising water caused by heavy rain is seen at Kuma river in Yatsushiro, Kumamoto prefecture. AFP

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  Residents are stranded on the rooftop of a house submerged in muddy waters that gushed out from the Kuma River in Hitoyoshi, Kumamoto prefecture. Kyodo News via AP

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  Rising water caused by a heavy rain is seen along Kuma river in Yatsushiro, Kumamoto prefecture. Reuters

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  This aerial view shows the site of a mudslide caused by heavy rain in Ashikita town, Kumamoto prefecture. Kyodo News via AP

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  A bridge over the Kuma River is washed away in Yatsushiro, Kumamoto prefecture. Kyodo News via AP

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  This aerial view shows the Kuma River swollen by heavy rain in Yatsushiro, Kumamoto prefecture. Kyodo News via AP

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  Areas are inundated in muddy waters that spilled over from the Kuma River in Hitoyoshi, Kumamoto prefecture. Kyodo News via AP

The potential pitfall is that, at a time when Japan needs fresh thinking, Mr Suga has pledged to pursue these Abe-era policies, some of which have stopped yielding desired results, particularly regarding the economy. The country is struggling to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic and its tourism industry – built around the 2020 Olympics – has been kicked in the shin. Tokyo 2020 itself has been postponed to 2021 and could be cancelled altogether. Meanwhile, the "Cool Japan" strategy used by the government to project the country's soft power has taken a beating, following the government's poor handling of the pandemic.

What the country, then, needs from Mr Suga is inspirational leadership.

Through a combination of force of personality, economic reforms and nationalism, Mr Abe and his administration played an important role in Japan's recovery from the 2011 tsunami and Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant tragedies. Mr Suga may find out early on that he needs to be similarly consequential, although in his own unique way. It will be a task made tougher by the fact that he is more backroom dealer than mass leader and is more pragmatist than ideologue.

Most importantly, his ability to inspire will depend on the scope of his ambitions and his willingness to step out of his predecessor's shadow. To take the country with him, the new boss will need to show the public that he is not the same as the old boss.

Chitrabhanu Kadalayil is an assistant comment editor at The National