Biden has to get ready to face a 'Tea Party on steroids'

US President-elect Joe Biden's 2020 campaigns – both in the Democratic primaries and when he beat departing President Donald Trump in the general election – were built on the promise of national reconciliation and a return to the political centre. That was always going to be a tall order, but the post-election aftermath is virtually guaranteeing that partisan antagonism, and concomitant governmental gridlock, will be worse than ever.

While Mr Biden says he wants the deeply divided country to begin to reunite around shared principles and goals, Mr Trump is pushing vigorously, and effectively, to promote extreme outrage among his supporters. Reconciliation cannot begin if much of the country believes that the election was "stolen", Mr Biden is a usurper and Mr Trump is the "real president".

Mr Trump and his allies have presented no credible evidence of meaningful irregularities and lost over 50 court challenges on both procedural and factual grounds.

Yet the constant drumbeat of allegations, however fact-free, has by now embedded the myth of the "stolen election" into the belief system of most Republican voters, according to recent polls. It threatens to become a defining creed.

Joe Biden will find it extremely difficult to bring together a deeply divided America. AFP

His final month in office could be especially tumultuous. Numerous major newspapers reported that, on Friday, Mr Trump held what was surely one of the most bizarre and disturbing meetings ever in the White House.

Among the ideas seriously contemplated by the President were declaring martial law and using the military to force swing states to redo their elections so that Mr Trump can “win".

That amounts to serious consideration of a coup d'etat by a sitting US president. Military leaders yet again felt obliged to state publicly that they would not use force to keep him in power.

One adviser describes Mr Trump's current attitude as seeking any ideas "to stay in office past January 20". At the meeting he also pondered an executive order seizing control of state voting machines.

Mr Trump will probably never concede defeat and leave the presidency. But the presidency will leave him on January 20 when Mr Biden is inaugurated.

It seems far-fetched for a former president to retain an iron grip on his party without the power of the White House. But Mr Trump could well pull it off. He is likely to go into heavy-duty campaign mode on, or even before January 20, and will almost certainly hold some sort of "Trump 2024" rally at the same time as Mr Biden's inauguration. Elected Republicans will probably be held to account for which event they attend.

Immediately after the election, many leading Republicans argued that not publicly acknowledging Mr Biden's victory was merely a way to humour Mr Trump and allow him to ease into a more gracious exit.

Mitch McConnell, the top-ranking Republican in the US Senate, defied tradition by waiting for the Electoral College vote before congratulating Joe Biden. Bloomberg

This assumption predictably backfired, as they failed to understand that Mr Trump’s masterful demagoguery would trap them into tacitly supporting, or at least not openly contradicting, the "stolen election" mythology. And now that this myth is dominating the political consciousness of many Republican voters, it is becoming an article of faith and a definitive litmus test. That is precisely how Mr Trump will attempt to maintain control of his party.

It sets a new standard whereby ever conceding defeat in an election is anathema for Republicans. Co-operation with the Biden administration may often seem immoral treachery. It might even be difficult for Mr Biden to secure Senate approval for some cabinet appointments, unless Democrats improbably win both Georgia Senate run-off elections on January 5 and gain the narrowest possible control of the Senate.

Challenges to reconciliation will not come just from Republicans. The emerging Biden cabinet is decidedly centrist, angering many left-wing Democrats who never trusted him anyway.

Centrists hoped Mr Trump's unpopularity would give Democrats a huge victory in Congress along with the White House. Any leftist insurgency could then be contained in the glow of a decisive victory under centrist leadership. But while Mr Biden's win was comprehensive, Democrats actually lost seats in the House of Representatives and probably will not control the Senate. Leftists are already asserting themselves and they, too, will be militating against compromises as betrayals of principles.

As for Republicans, their determination to not co-operate is clearly signalled in the latest coronavirus relief bill negotiations. These have been complicated by a depressingly predictable though sudden resurgence of Republican concern about budget deficits, which were blithely dismissed during the Trump presidency.

They have also been moving to hamstring the powers of the Department of the Treasury and Federal Reserve Bank to direct disaster relief and recovery, again attempting to hobble the incoming administration. The national economy may again fall victim to cynical partisan politicking.

Too many political actors have incentives to oppose Biden's national healing

Republicans are drifting into an oppositional hysteria that may make the "tea party" extremism of the Barack Obama era look calm and conciliatory.

Mr Trump has often trafficked in conspiracy theories, beginning his political career as the main champion of "Birtherism", the crude fabrication that Mr Obama was born outside the US and hence ineligible for the presidency. Now he is leaving his own presidency effectively promoting the ideas that not only is Mr Biden an illegitimate president, but the entire US democratic system is a fraud.

Republican leaders must either find a way to convince their voters that this not actually true or remain in the thrall of Mr Trump for at least the next two years . Almost none of them have even begun to try. Instead, they are allowing their party to become defined by a set of paranoid and dangerous delusions. As ever, they seem to have an inexplicable confidence that they can ultimately control such combustible elements. Or maybe they just do not care.

It is not impossible for Mr Biden to find a way to overcome all of this and really begin American national healing and a centrist resurgence. Much of the public would rejoice at that, but too many political actors have every incentive to oppose it.

His challenge looks far steeper today than immediately after the election. Back then, it merely appeared daunting.

Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute and a US affairs columnist for The National

Premier League results

Saturday

Crystal Palace 1 Brighton & Hove Albion 2

Cardiff City 2 West Ham United 0

Huddersfield Town 0 Bournemouth 2

Leicester City 3 Fulham 1

Newcastle United 3 Everton 2

Southampton 2 Tottenham Hotspur 1

Manchester City 3 Watford 1

Sunday

Liverpool 4 Burnley 2

Chelsea 1 Wolverhampton Wanderers 1

Arsenal 2 Manchester United 0

Who's who in Yemen conflict

Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government

Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council

Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south

Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory

Miss Granny

Director: Joyce Bernal

Starring: Sarah Geronimo, James Reid, Xian Lim, Nova Villa

3/5

(Tagalog with Eng/Ar subtitles)

More from Neighbourhood Watch:

A rare glimpse of Bedouin life in the humble border town of Qoa

The changing face of Mussaffah

Hatta, where present and past collide

How old Dubai moved with the times and kept its heart

The specs

Price, base / as tested Dh100,000 (estimate)

Engine 2.4L four-cylinder

Gearbox Nine-speed automatic

Power 184bhp at 6,400rpm

Torque 237Nm at 3,900rpm

Fuel economy, combined 9.4L/100km

How to wear a kandura

Dos

Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester

Don’ts

Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying

The%20specs

%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3.5-litre%20twin-turbo%20V6%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E456hp%20at%205%2C000rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E691Nm%20at%203%2C500rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E10-speed%20auto%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E14.6L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efrom%20Dh349%2C545%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

How to keep control of your emotions

If your investment decisions are being dictated by emotions such as fear, greed, hope, frustration and boredom, it is time for a rethink, Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at online trading platform IG, says.

Greed

Greedy investors trade beyond their means, open more positions than usual or hold on to positions too long to chase an even greater gain. “All too often, they incur a heavy loss and may even wipe out the profit already made.

Tip: Ignore the short-term hype, noise and froth and invest for the long-term plan, based on sound fundamentals.

Fear

The risk of making a loss can cloud decision-making. “This can cause you to close out a position too early, or miss out on a profit by being too afraid to open a trade,” he says.

Tip: Start with a plan, and stick to it. For added security, consider placing stops to reduce any losses and limits to lock in profits.

Hope

While all traders need hope to start trading, excessive optimism can backfire. Too many traders hold on to a losing trade because they believe that it will reverse its trend and become profitable.

Tip: Set realistic goals. Be happy with what you have earned, rather than frustrated by what you could have earned.

Frustration

Traders can get annoyed when the markets have behaved in unexpected ways and generates losses or fails to deliver anticipated gains.

Tip: Accept in advance that asset price movements are completely unpredictable and you will suffer losses at some point. These can be managed, say, by attaching stops and limits to your trades.

Boredom

Too many investors buy and sell because they want something to do. They are trading as entertainment, rather than in the hope of making money. As well as making bad decisions, the extra dealing charges eat into returns.

Tip: Open an online demo account and get your thrills without risking real money.

While you're here

Iran 'successfully' tests new locally made cruise missile

Iran’s defence budget to shrink under Covid-19 pressure

Iranian navy vessel 'mistakenly hits another with missile' killing 19

If you go

The flights
Etihad (etihad.com) flies from Abu Dhabi to Luang Prabang via Bangkok, with a return flight from Chiang Rai via Bangkok for about Dh3,000, including taxes. Emirates and Thai Airways cover the same route, also via Bangkok in both directions, from about Dh2,700.
The cruise
The Gypsy by Mekong Kingdoms has two cruising options: a three-night, four-day trip upstream cruise or a two-night, three-day downstream journey, from US$5,940 (Dh21,814), including meals, selected drinks, excursions and transfers.
The hotels
Accommodation is available in Luang Prabang at the Avani, from $290 (Dh1,065) per night, and at Anantara Golden Triangle Elephant Camp and Resort from $1,080 (Dh3,967) per night, including meals, an activity and transfers.

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Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $150,000
Current staff: 12
Stage: Pre-seed capital raising of $1 million
Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)

Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026

1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years

If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.

2. E-invoicing in the UAE

Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.

3. More tax audits

Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.

4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime

Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.

5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit

There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.

6. Further transfer pricing enforcement

Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.

7. Limited time periods for audits

Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.

8. Pillar 2 implementation

Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.

9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services

Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.

10. Substance and CbC reporting focus

Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.

Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer