US President Donald Trump held a summit meeting with his Russian counterpart in Helsinki, Finland, on Monday. AFP
US President Donald Trump held a summit meeting with his Russian counterpart in Helsinki, Finland, on Monday. AFP

After Helsinki, Trump's credibility lies in tatters



The most significant casualty of Donald Trump's car crash of a summit with Vladimir Putin is undoubtedly the damage it has done to the American president's credibility. And nowhere will the erosion of the American leader's global standing be more keenly felt than in the Middle East, where trust in Mr Trump's ability to deliver a fair and comprehensive peace deal will now come under intense scrutiny.

Mr Trump’s decision to arrange a summit with the Russian president was always going to be laced with controversy, not least because it took place at a time when American investigators were in the process of naming a number of Russian military intelligence officers whom they believe to be responsible for attempting to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election contest.

With the very foundations of American democracy under attack, arranging a summit with Mr Putin, the man widely believed to have been responsible for orchestrating the plot, was a high stakes roll of the dice. But when Mr Trump, in his joint press conference with the Russian leader, appeared to suggest that he accepted Mr Putin's denial of any involvement, the American president managed to cause profound offence to the entire American intelligence and security establishment, whose own painstaking inquiries point unequivocally to the Kremlin's culpability.

Mr Trump has since back-tracked on his bizarre performance in Helsinki, claiming that he misspoke when responding to a question at a press conference. But

No matter how hard Mr Trump tries to make amends - and the aggressive manner of his apology suggests it is really nothing of the kind - the president has done himself a serious disservice, both in terms of his stature as America’s commander-in-chief and his reliability in the eyes of his allies.

In Europe, the primary focus of Mr Trump's week-long visit, politicians were left scratching their heads about how best to follow the American president's lead. Should they, as Mr Trump lectured during the Nato summit in Brussels, spend more on defence to enable them to be better prepared to deal with Russian aggression? Or should they ditch their long-standing wariness of Mr Putin and embark on a new policy of rapprochement with the Kremlin?

The Middle East is another region that traditionally looks to Washington for strong leadership but, with Mr Trump seemingly giving off contradictory signals as to his true intentions, questions will inevitably be raised about the Trump administration’s approach to a number of issues.

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After the woeful neglect the region suffered under former US President Barack Obama, expectations were raised among pro-Western regimes in the Middle East that the arrival of Mr Trump at the Oval Office would result in a revival of American influence. And, in some respects, Mr Trump’s presidency has already had a profound impact on a number of key issues. His more pro-active leadership of the campaign to defeat ISIS helped to achieve the decisive breakthrough in Mosul and

Raqqa, and his decision to launch air strikes against the Assad regime for resorting to chemical weapons had a salutary impact. The President’s decision to withdraw from the flawed Iranian nuclear deal has also generated broad support from Washington’s Arab allies, while sending a clear signal to Tehran that its constant meddling in the affairs of Arab states will no longer be tolerated.

Doubts will now be raised, though, about the strength of Mr Trump's commitment to America's allies in the wake of the Helsinki summit, where Mr Trump's main priority appeared cosying up to Mr Putin than defending the interests of America's allies. And nowhere was this more apparent than in Mr Trump's passing reference to Syria's seven-year-old civil war during the Helsinki press conference.

Having twice launched military action against the Assad regime, Mr Trump had created the clear impression that he regarded Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad as the head of a hostile state. And yet, we now have Mr Trump backing a Russian-backed peace deal to end the Syrian conflict which envisages the survival of the Assad regime, a prospect that seemed unthinkable only a few months ago.

And if Mr Trump is able to conduct a complete volte face on such an important issue as Syria, what is to say he might not be tempted to change his mind on other regional challenges, such as Iran and attempts to resolve the long-running Israeli-Palestinian saga?

The Trump administration is currently in the process of putting the finishing touches to its long-awaited Middle East peace plan, by all accounts an ambitious and comprehensive document that seeks to implement a broad programme of economic development throughout the Arab world in return for resolving the Israel-Palestine dispute. Early drafts of the proposal, said to be the work of Mr Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, are now being circulated around the region to countries, such as the Gulf states, that have a vested interest in a positive outcome.

Given the strong emotions that are generated by the Israeli-Palestinian issue, both sides will need to be able to trust the Trump administration to arrive at a fair and equitable settlement. But the ability of Mr Trump to act as an honest broker on this and the many other issues that dominate the region must now be open to question in view of the ease with which Mr Trump ditched one American policy - namely overthrowing the Assad regime - in favour of one that was the exact opposite: allowing Mr Al Assad to remain in power.

For, if Mr Trump can reverse his position on an issue as important as the future of the Syrian regime, there is nothing to stop him having a sudden change of heart on other major issues, such as the creation of a homeland for the Palestinians.

Con Coughlin is the Daily Telegraph's defence and foreign affairs editor

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At a glance

Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.

 

Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year

 

Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month

 

Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30 

 

Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse

 

Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth

 

Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances

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Real estate tokenisation project

Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.

The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.

Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe

Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010

Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille

Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm

Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year

Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”

Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners

TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013 

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