The decision by the major protagonists of the war in Afghanistan to suspend hostilities during the Eid Al Fitr festival is a symbolic victory for multilateral diplomacy. Whether or not three days of prospective peace promised by the Afghan Taliban are grounds for optimism about America’s longest-ever war is entirely another matter.
The short reprieve – a reciprocal gesture after Afghan President Ashraf Ghani promised an eight-day ceasefire – is a milestone in the conflict, which began nearly 17 years ago after the erstwhile Taliban regime refused to hand over the Al Qaeda leaders responsible for the September 11 attacks on the US.
Viewed through the lens of cautious optimism, the unprecedented development is a tipping point which could create momentum for the revival of the 2015 peace process between the Afghan government and the Taliban.
That initiative failed because of the untimely announcement of the prior death of Taliban founder Mullah Mohammed Omar by the faction of Afghanistan’s National Unity Government, led by chief executive Abdullah Abdullah. The success of the Eid ceasefire would depend on the political will of not only the warring parties but also the ability of their respective leaders to rein in hardliners opposed to a negotiated settlement.
If adhered to, the ceasefire would create some grounds for trust in a war zone notorious for the duplicity of its players, domestic and foreign. If the ceasefire fails or does not eventually yield a sustainable process of dialogue, it would greatly exacerbate tensions between the US and regional powers vying for influence in Afghanistan.
The US is looking for plausible grounds to declare its renewed involvement in combat operations successful to the extent that they have forced the Taliban to talk to Kabul. Ultimately, the Trump administration wants to end American military involvement in Afghanistan because it is domestically unpopular and extremely expensive. But if denied a notional victory, Washington would shift the blame for its failure on to Afghanistan’s neighbours, with destabilising repercussions for the region.
Long-time Taliban backer Pakistan is already on the receiving end of a growing list of unilateral US sanctions and punitive actions at multilateral forums. The Paris-based Financial Action Task Force of nations working to prevent terrorist financing and money laundering will later this month decide whether to place Pakistan on its “grey” or “black” watchlists. If the US-led decision is to go with the severe black option, the consequences for Pakistan’s healthily growing economy would be profound.
Iran and Russia are also on the Trump administration’s radar for allegedly supplying weapons to the Taliban. As targets for unilateral US sanctions and suspicious of its motives for extending Nato involvement in Afghanistan, both countries would derive vengeful satisfaction from a humiliating exit for American forces.
However, the participants of the great game acknowledge such an outcome would be potentially disastrous for all. The longer the war in Afghanistan drags on, the more likely it will lead to the fracturing of the hitherto consolidated opposing side into factions led by warlords who thrive on chaos.
This would work very much to the advantage of ISIS, which has used the intensification of the war since the aborted 2015 peace process to establish and extend its presence in Afghanistan. It has drawn together defectors from the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan and Afghan Taliban to establish easily defendable bases in four provinces of Afghanistan and has used them to mount increasingly ferocious terrorist campaigns on urban centres in Afghanistan and Pakistan, notably Kabul and Quetta.
Given more time and space, ISIS would relocate leadership figures and increasing numbers of fighters from the lost battlegrounds of the Middle East and North Africa. They would include Arab and central Asian militants with prior experience of fighting in Afghanistan and Pakistan, who earlier defected from Al Qaeda because its actions in the region have been constrained by its oath of fealty to the Taliban leadership. If allowed to proliferate, ISIS would become an increasingly attractive brand for opportunist Taliban commanders and criminally inclined warlords currently fighting on behalf of the Afghan government.
China, which has led multilateral diplomatic efforts since December to bring together domestic and regional competitors in Afghanistan, has rightly argued that time is of the essence.
The greater intensity of the war has fuelled humanitarian problems in Afghanistan, making stabilisation efforts a bigger challenge than ever. The proportion of Afghans displaced by fighting has reached alarming levels. The situation is set to worsen because of a debilitating drought which has struck much of the impoverished country.
Alternatively, confidence-building measures such as the Eid ceasefire could create a win-win situation enabling political players and the civilian population alike to benefit from the creation of energy and trade corridors through Afghanistan.
The US has desired the establishment of natural gas pipelines from Central Asia to the subcontinent since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Now China wants Afghanistan to act as a hub for parallel silk routes extending south from Central Asia through Pakistan and the Caucasus. India, too, is seeking trade access into Central Asia through Afghanistan.
After the September 11 attacks, a convergence of interests facilitated the creation of a new Afghan government so a negotiated settlement is possible, if still a distant and unlikely prospect. Inevitably, progress would depend on whether Afghanistan’s politicians, whether elected or insurgent, can overcome their historic propensity to cut off their noses to spite their faces.
Tom Hussain is a journalist and political analyst in Islamabad
Kill
Director: Nikhil Nagesh Bhat
Starring: Lakshya, Tanya Maniktala, Ashish Vidyarthi, Harsh Chhaya, Raghav Juyal
Rating: 4.5/5
The specs
Engine: 3.6 V6
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Power: 295bhp
Torque: 353Nm
Price: Dh155,000
On sale: now
MATCH INFO
Manchester United 2
(Martial 30', McTominay 90+6')
Manchester City 0
The specs: 2018 Ducati SuperSport S
Price, base / as tested: Dh74,900 / Dh85,900
Engine: 937cc
Transmission: Six-speed gearbox
Power: 110hp @ 9,000rpm
Torque: 93Nm @ 6,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 5.9L / 100km
The specs
Engine: 1.8-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 190hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm from 1,800-5,000rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed dual-clutch auto
Fuel consumption: 6.7L/100km
Price: From Dh111,195
On sale: Now
MATCH INFO
World Cup qualifier
Thailand 2 (Dangda 26', Panya 51')
UAE 1 (Mabkhout 45+2')
The years Ramadan fell in May
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: Klipit
Started: 2022
Founders: Venkat Reddy, Mohammed Al Bulooki, Bilal Merchant, Asif Ahmed, Ovais Merchant
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Digital receipts, finance, blockchain
Funding: $4 million
Investors: Privately/self-funded
Herc's Adventures
Developer: Big Ape Productions
Publisher: LucasArts
Console: PlayStation 1 & 5, Sega Saturn
Rating: 4/5
Confirmed bouts (more to be added)
Cory Sandhagen v Umar Nurmagomedov
Nick Diaz v Vicente Luque
Michael Chiesa v Tony Ferguson
Deiveson Figueiredo v Marlon Vera
Mackenzie Dern v Loopy Godinez
Tickets for the August 3 Fight Night, held in partnership with the Department of Culture and Tourism Abu Dhabi, went on sale earlier this month, through www.etihadarena.ae and www.ticketmaster.ae.
What is Genes in Space?
Genes in Space is an annual competition first launched by the UAE Space Agency, The National and Boeing in 2015.
It challenges school pupils to design experiments to be conducted in space and it aims to encourage future talent for the UAE’s fledgling space industry. It is the first of its kind in the UAE and, as well as encouraging talent, it also aims to raise interest and awareness among the general population about space exploration.
Russia's Muslim Heartlands
Dominic Rubin, Oxford
DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE
Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Hugh Jackman, Emma Corrin
Director: Shawn Levy
Rating: 3/5
ROUTE TO TITLE
Round 1: Beat Leolia Jeanjean 6-1, 6-2
Round 2: Beat Naomi Osaka 7-6, 1-6, 7-5
Round 3: Beat Marie Bouzkova 6-4, 6-2
Round 4: Beat Anastasia Potapova 6-0, 6-0
Quarter-final: Beat Marketa Vondrousova 6-0, 6-2
Semi-final: Beat Coco Gauff 6-2, 6-4
Final: Beat Jasmine Paolini 6-2, 6-2
More on Quran memorisation:
FIGHT CARD
Featherweight 4 rounds:
Yousuf Ali (2-0-0) (win-loss-draw) v Alex Semugenyi (0-1-0)
Welterweight 6 rounds:
Benyamin Moradzadeh (0-0-0) v Rohit Chaudhary (4-0-2)
Heavyweight 4 rounds:
Youssef Karrar (1-0-0) v Muhammad Muzeei (0-0-0)
Welterweight 6 rounds:
Marwan Mohamad Madboly (2-0-0) v Sheldon Schultz (4-4-0)
Super featherweight 8 rounds:
Bishara Sabbar (6-0-0) v Mohammed Azahar (8-5-1)
Cruiseweight 8 rounds:
Mohammed Bekdash (25-0-0) v Musa N’tege (8-4-0)
Super flyweight 10 rounds:
Sultan Al Nuaimi (9-0-0) v Jemsi Kibazange (18-6-2)
Lightweight 10 rounds:
Bader Samreen (8-0-0) v Jose Paez Gonzales (16-2-2-)
Company profile
Company name: Fasset
Started: 2019
Founders: Mohammad Raafi Hossain, Daniel Ahmed
Based: Dubai
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $2.45 million
Current number of staff: 86
Investment stage: Pre-series B
Investors: Investcorp, Liberty City Ventures, Fatima Gobi Ventures, Primal Capital, Wealthwell Ventures, FHS Capital, VN2 Capital, local family offices
SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder
Power: 101hp
Torque: 135Nm
Transmission: Six-speed auto
Price: From Dh79,900
On sale: Now
Bareilly Ki Barfi
Directed by: Ashwiny Iyer Tiwari
Starring: Kriti Sanon, Ayushmann Khurrana, Rajkummar Rao
Three and a half stars
TOURNAMENT INFO
Fixtures
Sunday January 5 - Oman v UAE
Monday January 6 - UAE v Namibia
Wednesday January 8 - Oman v Namibia
Thursday January 9 - Oman v UAE
Saturday January 11 - UAE v Namibia
Sunday January 12 – Oman v Namibia
UAE squad
Ahmed Raza (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Mohammed Usman, CP Rizwan, Waheed Ahmed, Zawar Farid, Darius D’Silva, Karthik Meiyappan, Jonathan Figy, Vriitya Aravind, Zahoor Khan, Junaid Siddique, Basil Hameed, Chirag Suri
TWISTERS
Director:+Lee+Isaac+Chung
Starring:+Glen+Powell,+Daisy+Edgar-Jones,+Anthony+Ramos
Rating:+2.5/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: Supy
Started: 2021
Founders: Dani El-Zein, Yazeed bin Busayyis, Ibrahim Bou Ncoula
Based: Dubai
Industry: Food and beverage, tech, hospitality software, Saas
Funding size: Bootstrapped for six months; pre-seed round of $1.5 million; seed round of $8 million
Investors: Beco Capital, Cotu Ventures, Valia Ventures and Global Ventures
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
The specs
Engine: 4-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: nine-speed
Power: 542bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: Dh848,000
On sale: now
WISH
Directors: Chris Buck, Fawn Veerasunthorn
Stars: Ariana DeBose, Chris Pine, Alan Tudyk
Rating: 3.5/5
Strait of Hormuz
Fujairah is a crucial hub for fuel storage and is just outside the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route linking Middle East oil producers to markets in Asia, Europe, North America and beyond.
The strait is 33 km wide at its narrowest point, but the shipping lane is just three km wide in either direction. Almost a fifth of oil consumed across the world passes through the strait.
Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait, a move that would risk inviting geopolitical and economic turmoil.
Last month, Iran issued a new warning that it would block the strait, if it was prevented from using the waterway following a US decision to end exemptions from sanctions for major Iranian oil importers.
Pakistanis at the ILT20
The new UAE league has been boosted this season by the arrival of five Pakistanis, who were not released to play last year.
Shaheen Afridi (Desert Vipers)
Set for at least four matches, having arrived from New Zealand where he captained Pakistan in a series loss.
Shadab Khan (Desert Vipers)
The leg-spin bowling allrounder missed the tour of New Zealand after injuring an ankle when stepping on a ball.
Azam Khan (Desert Vipers)
Powerhouse wicketkeeper played three games for Pakistan on tour in New Zealand. He was the first Pakistani recruited to the ILT20.
Mohammed Amir (Desert Vipers)
Has made himself unavailable for national duty, meaning he will be available for the entire ILT20 campaign.
Imad Wasim (Abu Dhabi Knight Riders)
The left-handed allrounder, 35, retired from international cricket in November and was subsequently recruited by the Knight Riders.
What is an ETF?
An exchange traded fund is a type of investment fund that can be traded quickly and easily, just like stocks and shares. They come with no upfront costs aside from your brokerage's dealing charges and annual fees, which are far lower than on traditional mutual investment funds. Charges are as low as 0.03 per cent on one of the very cheapest (and most popular), Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, with the maximum around 0.75 per cent.
There is no fund manager deciding which stocks and other assets to invest in, instead they passively track their chosen index, country, region or commodity, regardless of whether it goes up or down.
The first ETF was launched as recently as 1993, but the sector boasted $5.78 billion in assets under management at the end of September as inflows hit record highs, according to the latest figures from ETFGI, a leading independent research and consultancy firm.
There are thousands to choose from, with the five largest providers BlackRock’s iShares, Vanguard, State Street Global Advisers, Deutsche Bank X-trackers and Invesco PowerShares.
While the best-known track major indices such as MSCI World, the S&P 500 and FTSE 100, you can also invest in specific countries or regions, large, medium or small companies, government bonds, gold, crude oil, cocoa, water, carbon, cattle, corn futures, currency shifts or even a stock market crash.
Company Profile
Name: HyveGeo
Started: 2023
Founders: Abdulaziz bin Redha, Dr Samsurin Welch, Eva Morales and Dr Harjit Singh
Based: Cambridge and Dubai
Number of employees: 8
Industry: Sustainability & Environment
Funding: $200,000 plus undisclosed grant
Investors: Venture capital and government
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: Nomad Homes
Started: 2020
Founders: Helen Chen, Damien Drap, and Dan Piehler
Based: UAE and Europe
Industry: PropTech
Funds raised so far: $44m
Investors: Acrew Capital, 01 Advisors, HighSage Ventures, Abstract Ventures, Partech, Precursor Ventures, Potluck Ventures, Knollwood and several undisclosed hedge funds
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: Bedu
Started: 2021
Founders: Khaled Al Huraimel, Matti Zinder, Amin Al Zarouni
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: AI, metaverse, Web3 and blockchain
Funding: Currently in pre-seed round to raise $5 million to $7 million
Investors: Privately funded
The Color Purple
Director: Blitz Bazawule
Starring: Fantasia Barrino, Taraji P Henson, Danielle Brooks, Colman Domingo
Rating: 4/5
Company Profile
Name: Direct Debit System
Started: Sept 2017
Based: UAE with a subsidiary in the UK
Industry: FinTech
Funding: Undisclosed
Investors: Elaine Jones
Number of employees: 8
Masters of the Air
Directors: Cary Joji Fukunaga, Dee Rees, Anna Boden, Ryan Fleck, Tim Van Patten
Starring: Austin Butler, Callum Turner, Anthony Boyle, Barry Keoghan, Sawyer Spielberg
Rating: 2/5