China's President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in Beijing last year. Nicolas Asfouri / AFP
China's President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in Beijing last year. Nicolas Asfouri / AFP

A new Cold War with the US and China as bitter rivals would be a grievous mistake



In the 17 years since the 9/11 attacks, the United States has made combating terrorism worldwide its number one national security priority. The shift away from its Cold War and immediate post-Cold War stance was the biggest it had made since the end of the Second World War and resulted in trillions of dollars of expenditures, two major wars and constant US military engagement in the Middle East for nearly two decades.

It was also a giant fiasco and a huge miscalculation.

Not only were the wars fought ultimately more damaging than they were beneficial to US security interests or those of our allies but the human cost of these conflicts was staggering, innocent civilians paid a huge price and America was dealt an immeasurable blow to its standing in the world. Today our network of allies are weaker, extremism is more pervasive and dangerous than it was before, America is more hesitant to use force, even when it is necessary and the costs to a country that had many other needs going unaddressed to pay for these wars were immense – just behold America’s crumbling infrastructure, underfunded schools, battered healthcare system and the growing unmet needs of the poor and elderly, by way of example.

This era is now coming to an end. In part, this is due to simple exhaustion of the political will necessary to pursue such a commitment. In part, it is due to the failures cited above. In part, it is due to geopolitical changes. The signs of the change are evident in recent US government strategy documents from the Department of Defence and the National Security Council as well as articles in the US think tank community, all of which argue the country now must turn its security focus once again to current or potential threats posed by major powers – in particular to Russia and China.

The shift makes perfect sense, of course. In fact, the shift away from the focus on major powers was always a mistake – an overreaction to the terror attacks of September 11, 2001 and an opportunistic move by American politicians to capitalise on, stoke further and then capitalise again on the fears terrorists evoked in the American voter. There was an urgency to it that had not only political resonance but could be made to justify the nearly insatiable appetites for resources demanded by the US military-industrial complex.

But now, with the aggressive behaviour of Russia in Ukraine, Syria and in its information and cyber attacks on American and western democracies, it is easy to explain why Russia, still the only other true nuclear superpower, is a significant threat. (Easy for everyone but the US president, for reasons we can all speculate about and will likely soon be heard in a court of law.). And with China's rise to be the world's unquestioned second power, its military spending increases and its new commitment to engaging in a kind of global leadership role that it has eschewed for 500 years, keeping a close eye on it is only prudent.

That said, while the US is shifting its priorities, it is once again on the verge of making a fundamental error. Much as it made the mistake of equating the terrorist threat with the existential threats it faced during the Cold War, significant factions within the US are seeking to cast the current rivalries with Russia and China in old Cold War terms. But Russia is an economic middleweight with a dysfunctional government – in other words, a military rival built on top of a second-rate power. The US has the nuclear deterrent to contain the threat it poses in that respect but lacks the cyber deterrents needed, a new area where new capabilities and doctrines are required.

China, however, is another story. As I write this from Beijing, once again I see the awesome transformation that has been taking place here since my first visit nearly 30 years ago. It is no exaggeration to say it is without rival in human history in terms of the pace or the scale of the growth that has taken place. Combining that with China’s certain ascension to being the planet’s number one economy and its growing foreign policy assertiveness and military capabilities (as witnessed by this week’s display of force in the Taiwan Straits), it would be easy to suggest the US should re-adapt its bi-polar Cold War era world view by simply replacing the words “Soviet Union” with the words “People’s Republic of China”.

Indeed, some recent US policy papers seem to suggest doing this, casting China as an inevitable enemy. But this too would be a grievous mistake. The US versus the Soviet Union was a zero sum game. The US and China are profoundly economically interdependent (as the current ill-considered trade war launched by President Trump will illustrate). They might be rivals but they are not enemies. To cast them as such would only create a self-fulfilling prophecy that neither side should want.

There are no issues of importance in the world that do not require Chinese cooperation or have a key role for China to play – from the Middle East to climate talks, from trade to non-proliferation, from the Koreas to Africa and the developing world. For the US, learning how to work with a powerful rival that is not, in fact, an enemy and whose interests often align closely and are deeply intertwined with Washington’s, must be the new objective: in this case, a doctrine of interdependence between the major powers is required.

The mistake made nearly two decades ago was to use false analogies between the Cold War and the war on terror. We must avoid the same mistake as we enter this new period defined by major power rivalries, particularly that between the US and an ascendant China.

David Rothkopf is CEO of The Rothkopf Group, senior fellow at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and most recently author of The Great Questions of Tomorrow

Cryopreservation: A timeline
  1. Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
  2. Ovarian tissue surgically removed
  3. Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
  4. Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
  5. Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
Company profile

Date started: January, 2014

Founders: Mike Dawson, Varuna Singh, and Benita Rowe

Based: Dubai

Sector: Education technology

Size: Five employees

Investment: $100,000 from the ExpoLive Innovation Grant programme in 2018 and an initial $30,000 pre-seed investment from the Turn8 Accelerator in 2014. Most of the projects are government funded.

Partners/incubators: Turn8 Accelerator; In5 Innovation Centre; Expo Live Innovation Impact Grant Programme; Dubai Future Accelerators; FHI 360; VSO and Consult and Coach for a Cause (C3)

RACE CARD

4pm Al Bastakiya – Listed (TB) $150,000 (Dirt) 1,900m

4.35pm Dubai City Of Gold – Group 2 (TB) $228,000 (Turf) 2,410m

5.10pm Mahab Al Shimaal – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,200m

5.45pm Burj Nahaar – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,600m

6.20pm Jebel Hatta – Group 1 (TB) $260,000 (T) 1,800m

6.55pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 – Group 1 (TB) $390,000 (D) 2,000m

7.30pm Nad Al Sheba – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (T) 1,200m

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Stan Wawrinka v Pablo Carreno Busta, 5pm
Milos Raonic v Dominic Thiem, no earlier then 7pm

December 29 - semi-finals
Rafael Nadal v Stan Wawrinka / Pablo Carreno Busta, 5pm
Novak Djokovic v Milos Raonic / Dominic Thiem, no earlier then 7pm

December 30
3rd/4th place play-off, 5pm
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Country-size land deals

US interest in purchasing territory is not as outlandish as it sounds. Here's a look at some big land transactions between nations:

Louisiana Purchase

If Donald Trump is one who aims to broker "a deal of the century", then this was the "deal of the 19th Century". In 1803, the US nearly doubled in size when it bought 2,140,000 square kilometres from France for $15 million.

Florida Purchase Treaty

The US courted Spain for Florida for years. Spain eventually realised its burden in holding on to the territory and in 1819 effectively ceded it to America in a wider border treaty. 

Alaska purchase

America's spending spree continued in 1867 when it acquired 1,518,800 km2 of  Alaskan land from Russia for $7.2m. Critics panned the government for buying "useless land".

The Philippines

At the end of the Spanish-American War, a provision in the 1898 Treaty of Paris saw Spain surrender the Philippines for a payment of $20 million. 

US Virgin Islands

It's not like a US president has never reached a deal with Denmark before. In 1917 the US purchased the Danish West Indies for $25m and renamed them the US Virgin Islands.

Gwadar

The most recent sovereign land purchase was in 1958 when Pakistan bought the southwestern port of Gwadar from Oman for 5.5bn Pakistan rupees. 

UPI facts

More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions

Vidaamuyarchi

Director: Magizh Thirumeni

Stars: Ajith Kumar, Arjun Sarja, Trisha Krishnan, Regina Cassandra

Rating: 4/5

 

Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Game Changer

Director: Shankar 

Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram

Rating: 2/5

The specs

AT4 Ultimate, as tested

Engine: 6.2-litre V8

Power: 420hp

Torque: 623Nm

Transmission: 10-speed automatic

Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)

On sale: Now

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
 
Started: 2020
 
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
 
Based: Dubai, UAE
 
Sector: Entertainment 
 
Number of staff: 210 
 
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
German intelligence warnings
  • 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
  • 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
  • 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250 

Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution

The%20specs
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New Zealand 57-0 South Africa

Tries: Rieko Ioane, Nehe Milner-Skudder (2), Scott Barrett, Brodie Retallick, Ofa Tu'ungfasi, Lima Sopoaga, Codie Taylor. Conversions: Beauden Barrett (7). Penalty: Beauden Barrett

Emergency

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Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry 

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What is the FNC?

The Federal National Council is one of five federal authorities established by the UAE constitution. It held its first session on December 2, 1972, a year to the day after Federation.
It has 40 members, eight of whom are women. The members represent the UAE population through each of the emirates. Abu Dhabi and Dubai have eight members each, Sharjah and Ras al Khaimah six, and Ajman, Fujairah and Umm Al Quwain have four.
They bring Emirati issues to the council for debate and put those concerns to ministers summoned for questioning. 
The FNC’s main functions include passing, amending or rejecting federal draft laws, discussing international treaties and agreements, and offering recommendations on general subjects raised during sessions.
Federal draft laws must first pass through the FNC for recommendations when members can amend the laws to suit the needs of citizens. The draft laws are then forwarded to the Cabinet for consideration and approval. 
Since 2006, half of the members have been elected by UAE citizens to serve four-year terms and the other half are appointed by the Ruler’s Courts of the seven emirates.
In the 2015 elections, 78 of the 252 candidates were women. Women also represented 48 per cent of all voters and 67 per cent of the voters were under the age of 40.
 

Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20HyveGeo%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abdulaziz%20bin%20Redha%2C%20Dr%20Samsurin%20Welch%2C%20Eva%20Morales%20and%20Dr%20Harjit%20Singh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECambridge%20and%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESustainability%20%26amp%3B%20Environment%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24200%2C000%20plus%20undisclosed%20grant%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVenture%20capital%20and%20government%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
'Operation Mincemeat' 

Director: John Madden 

 

Cast: Colin Firth, Matthew Macfayden, Kelly Macdonald and Penelope Wilton

 

Rating: 4/5