In December 2019, The Economist magazine declared that the British Conservative party’s triumph in the general election under Boris Johnson meant the Tories were “the world’s most successful” political party. The Conservatives, they said, were in the business of winning elections in the 19th, 20th and 21st centuries.
Well, true. Sort of. What they did not say was that under the UK’s antiquated “first past the post” system, what Mr Johnson called his “stonking” success in 2019 was based on a minority of the votes, just 43.6 per cent.
More significantly, Britain’s Conservatives and their American counterparts, the Republican Party, subsequently seem to be having a simultaneous nervous breakdown. After their long history of success and great political figures – from Abraham Lincoln to Ronald Reagan, from Benjamin Disraeli to Winston Churchill and Margaret Thatcher – both parties seem in competition to decide which is more divided.
And it could get worse.
As everyone knows, the Republicans, post-Donald Trump, or at least post-Trump’s first presidency, are riven by factions and feuding. Amid great drama that played out for weeks, the world’s most powerful democracy has finally elected a Speaker of the House of Representatives.
Constitutionally, if something unthinkable were to happen both to the president and vice president, it is the speaker who would enter the White House. But Republicans dislike each other so much that it took them almost a month to agree on who should succeed Kevin McCarthy.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the Conservative party, if not actually in meltdown, is giving a good impersonation of a party that hasn’t a clue what to do. Their internal feuding is obvious. The Labour party is the opposition, but all the real Tory enemies seem to be on their own side.
I had hoped that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who on Wednesday completed one year at 10 Downing Street, might be boring but would at least bring order to the factions in his party and prove competent. He has been unable to do so because the various enormous egos in his government are jockeying to succeed him when – not “if” – he loses the 2024 general election.
Privately, many Conservatives have written him off. They have spectacularly lost two by-elections in what were formerly safe seats. Pollsters are struggling to find historical parallels.
The results mean that every one of the Conservatives elected in the “stonking” success of December 2019 is now wondering whether they can possibly retain their seat at the next election, which some think most likely in October 2024. Others, including the Labour party, are preparing for the fight to be earlier, in May next year, in the hope of rapidly putting Britain out of the Conservative party’s misery.
But here’s the bigger point, which is beginning to concern some thinking politicians, although they don’t speak of it openly. International turmoil. From Ukraine to Palestine and Israel (and elsewhere), the world is obviously in a dangerous state.
Strange alliances among potentially threatening states concern security experts and western intelligence agencies. A recent meeting organised by the FBI in Palo Alto, California, brought together the heads of the domestic intelligence agencies of the “Five Eyes” nations – Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the US.
Here’s the bigger point, which is beginning to concern some thinking politicians: international turmoil
Britain’s Director General of MI5, Ken McCallum, spoke of what he called the “epic scale” of espionage directed towards commercial and technological secrets. “If you’re working at the cutting edge of technology, then geopolitics is interested in you even if you are not interested in geopolitics,” he said in a BBC interview.
Mr McCallum’s views about espionage and other matters were echoed by FBI Director Christopher A Wray, who spoke of his agency at one point opening a new investigation every 12 hours.
What brings the political situation and the intelligence assessments together is the concern in some circles that, as we enter 2024, politicians in both Britain and the US will be preoccupied with political infighting at more or less the same time – October and November of next year. Within a few weeks of each other, there may be hugely disruptive elections in both countries, which could see the return of Mr Trump to the White House (or the possibility of disruption were the former president to end up in jail).
Either outcome would be politically unsettling, and it could come at the same time as a new prime minister with no direct experience of running the UK – most likely Labour party leader, Keir Starmer – finds himself in Downing Street.
This would be the first time since 1992 that elections have been held more or less simultaneously on both sides of the Atlantic.
John Healey, Labour’s Shadow Defence Secretary, has already called for a joint task force with the US to prevent what he called “foreign interference” by unspecified states in both elections. “Our countries should be on high alert,” he said proposing a “democratic resilience centre” to “protect our democratic values, political institutions, elections and open societies”.
At the moment, such rumblings remain in the background, but intelligence agencies exist to prepare for the worst.
Everything in 2024 may go smoothly. But with Conservatives and Republicans fighting not just their opponents but also their colleagues, politics and geopolitics could get very rough indeed.
THE CLOWN OF GAZA
Director: Abdulrahman Sabbah
Starring: Alaa Meqdad
Rating: 4/5
Honeymoonish
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The%20Killer
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The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20IPHONE%2014
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ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
OPINIONS ON PALESTINE & ISRAEL
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
Tips to stay safe during hot weather
- Stay hydrated: Drink plenty of fluids, especially water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, which can increase dehydration.
- Seek cool environments: Use air conditioning, fans, or visit community spaces with climate control.
- Limit outdoor activities: Avoid strenuous activity during peak heat. If outside, seek shade and wear a wide-brimmed hat.
- Dress appropriately: Wear lightweight, loose and light-coloured clothing to facilitate heat loss.
- Check on vulnerable people: Regularly check in on elderly neighbours, young children and those with health conditions.
- Home adaptations: Use blinds or curtains to block sunlight, avoid using ovens or stoves, and ventilate living spaces during cooler hours.
- Recognise heat illness: Learn the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke (dizziness, confusion, rapid pulse, nausea), and seek medical attention if symptoms occur.
Jiu-jitsu calendar of events for 2017-2018:
August 5:
Round-1 of the President’s Cup in Al Ain.
August 11-13:
Asian Championship in Vietnam.
September 8-9:
Ajman International.
September 16-17
Asian Indoor and Martial Arts Games, Ashgabat.
September 22-24:
IJJF Balkan Junior Open, Montenegro.
September 23-24:
Grand Slam Los Angeles.
September 29:
Round-1 Mother of The Nation Cup.
October 13-14:
Al Ain U18 International.
September 20-21:
Al Ain International.
November 3:
Round-2 Mother of The National Cup.
November 4:
Round-2 President’s Cup.
November 10-12:
Grand Slam Rio de Janeiro.
November 24-26:
World Championship, Columbia.
November 30:
World Beach Championship, Columbia.
December 8-9:
Dubai International.
December 23:
Round-3 President’s Cup, Sharjah.
January 12-13:
Grand Slam Abu Dhabi.
January 26-27:
Fujairah International.
February 3:
Round-4 President’s Cup, Al Dhafra.
February 16-17:
Ras Al Khaimah International.
February 23-24:
The Challenge Championship.
March 10-11:
Grand Slam London.
March 16:
Final Round – Mother of The Nation.
March 17:
Final Round – President’s Cup.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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