"Whether we like it or not, the majority of the country seem to be hesitant or opposing to change, especially change relating to the situation of women in the country." Simon Dawson / Bloomberg
"Whether we like it or not, the majority of the country seem to be hesitant or opposing to change, especially change relating to the situation of women in the country." Simon Dawson / Bloomberg

Change in Saudi Arabia is coming...with buy in from across society



Change is never easy. On an individual level, it takes diligence and hard work to change a habit. Numerous self-help books have been written on the process. It’s an ever-growing business that will not grow old.

But what if a country wants to change? Moreover, what if the people in that country are hesitant to change?

This is the reality of Saudi Arabia today. For a few years now, talking about change has shown that, it is not Saudi, but the citizens of the country who are wary, sceptical or resistant to change.

Many outsiders and political analysts argue that the Saudi government is the one standing in the face of change demanded by its citizens. They assume that the population is predominantly liberal and is caught up in a conservative setting. They believe that a top down approach to change is the only way forward.

Insiders know otherwise.

As a Saudi woman, I’m usually impatient for change to happen. However, when examining the situation in the country from an objective perspective, I realise that it is not as easy as it seems. Whether we like it or not, the majority of the country seem to be hesitant or opposing to change, especially change relating to the situation of women in the country.

It is difficult and almost impossible to provide statistical numbers of how the Saudi population is divided among itself. First, many do not like to label themselves as conservatives or liberals. Second, some Saudis who do not shy away from labelling themselves as liberals might forget that the core principle of liberalism is individuality. Such concepts stand contrary to values held dear by a society that emphasises family and tribe over individualism and liberty.

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Add to that, there is a large part of the Saudi population that is not under the gaze of cultural and political commentators. This group does not see itself as liberal or conservative; it is uncomfortable with liberal demands, but also views some conservative values as outdated. They are more content, however, with maintaining the cultural status quo in the country, believing that change might bring immorality and chaos.

It is no wonder that decision makers in Saudi Arabia are aware of these various factions within the society. Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman talked to the Washington Post in April this year about change in the country. The prince told the newspaper that he is concerned about people's readiness for change. He said, "The most concerning thing is if the Saudi people are not convinced. If the Saudi people are convinced, the sky is the limit."

Perhaps the young prince is testing the population's willingness by proposing the Red Sea project, an ambitious plan to transform Saudi Arabia's coastline into luxury sea resorts.  The project has already created heated debate on Saudi Arabia's preferred discussion platform, Twitter.

The Red Sea project generated three main responses. Some were positive and optimistic, arguing that the project will benefit Saudi Arabia’s social and economic life.

The other two responses were critical. One argued that the project will allow women to wear swimwear, especially since the resort will be in a “semi-autonomous” area that would lift the conservative norms followed in the rest of the country. They worry that such relaxed laws will, inevitably, find their way into the Saudi society. These are the conservatives who are still disappointed that the government has curbed the power of the religious police last year.

The other group is critical that such lenient and relaxed approach is always granted to foreigners, not to the wider Saudi population. They argue the residential compound for the Saudi Arabian Oil Company in the Eastern Province has allowed foreigners to live normally, and for women to drive cars with no restrictions. This group believes that change should be implemented throughout the country, and it should specifically target the situation of women as a cornerstone of achieving the country’s vision of 2030.

Luckily, the construction of the first phase of the project will not start until 2019, ample time to introduce the reality of change for those hesitant. The government constantly unveils new projects and tests the population by, subtly, changing the cultural dogma. The majority of the youth in Saudi will, perhaps, help change the equation. However, the voices of the conservatives, and their influence over the majority of the population that is wary of change, will be the dominant factor in the push for change.

Eman Alhussein is a researcher on Middle East affairs

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Four reasons global stock markets are falling right now

There are many factors worrying investors right now and triggering a rush out of stock markets. Here are four of the biggest:

1. Rising US interest rates

The US Federal Reserve has increased interest rates three times this year in a bid to prevent its buoyant economy from overheating. They now stand at between 2 and 2.25 per cent and markets are pencilling in three more rises next year.

Kim Catechis, manager of the Legg Mason Martin Currie Global Emerging Markets Fund, says US inflation is rising and the Fed will continue to raise rates in 2019. “With inflationary pressures growing, an increasing number of corporates are guiding profitability expectations downwards for 2018 and 2019, citing the negative impact of rising costs.”

At the same time as rates are rising, central bankers in the US and Europe have been ending quantitative easing, bringing the era of cheap money to an end.

2. Stronger dollar

High US rates have driven up the value of the dollar and bond yields, and this is putting pressure on emerging market countries that took advantage of low interest rates to run up trillions in dollar-denominated debt. They have also suffered capital outflows as international investors have switched to the US, driving markets lower. Omar Negyal, portfolio manager of the JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust, says this looks like a buying opportunity. “Despite short-term volatility we remain positive about long-term prospects and profitability for emerging markets.” 

3. Global trade war

Ritu Vohora, investment director at fund manager M&G, says markets fear that US President Donald Trump’s spat with China will escalate into a full-blown global trade war, with both sides suffering. “The US economy is robust enough to absorb higher input costs now, but this may not be the case as tariffs escalate. However, with a host of factors hitting investor sentiment, this is becoming a stock picker’s market.”

4. Eurozone uncertainty

Europe faces two challenges right now in the shape of Brexit and the new populist government in eurozone member Italy.

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, which has offices in Dubai, says the stand-off between between Rome and Brussels threatens to become much more serious. "As with Brexit, neither side appears willing to step back from the edge, threatening more trouble down the line.”

The European economy may also be slowing, Mr Beauchamp warns. “A four-year low in eurozone manufacturing confidence highlights the fact that producers see a bumpy road ahead, with US-EU trade talks remaining a major question-mark for exporters.”