Only an urgent global deal will stave off a depression



Friday's downgrading of US debt, by the ratings agency Standard & Poor's, capped the world economy's worst week since the dark days of the 2008-09 financial crisis.

Amid fears of a new slump, massive sell-offs wiped more than $2.5 trillion (Dh9.2 trillion) from the value of equities around the globe. On Saturday, Saudi Arabian markets alone lost $7.5 billion, and the outlook is pessimistic as markets around the world open today. As investors seek refuge in safe assets, the market volatility we have seen in commodities and shares is set to continue.

On Thursday, Wall Street and a host of European stock markets saw their biggest one-day drops since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 turned the transatlantic "credit crunch" into a global recession.

Then, the world's 20 leading economies acted swiftly, recapitalising banks and providing temporary stimulus that compensated in part for the collapse in private demand. A great depression was averted.

Now, political leadership is lacking, both nationally and internationally. Some decision-makers, such as Angela Merkel, Germany's chancellor, are conspicuous by their absence. Others, including Silvio Berlusconi, Italy's premier, remain in a state of denial.

With every month of inaction or delayed response, the bailout bill has increased. As the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis moves from the periphery to the core, a cacophony of dissent highlights Europe's political vacuum. No wonder that spreads on Spanish and Italian bonds have widened, compared with safe German bonds.

In the US, last week's debt deal portends worse than merely partisan stalemate until the 2012 presidential vote. Indeed, reckless brinkmanship risks inducing permanent political paralysis at a time when the economy has hit stall speed.

Better-than-expected job figures provided some relief on Friday, but second-quarter US economic growth of merely 1.3 per cent per year spooked investors.

Western leaders are behind the curve and playing catch up, at a time when decisive action in the West plus a global grand bargain are needed to avoid a "double-dip" recession or Japan-like stagnation.

A repeat of the post-Lehman period is not on the cards. Most banking groups now have greater capital cushions and fewer toxic assets. Interbank lending continues. Money markets are not about to freeze.

But some similarities with the financial crash of 2008 are real - and dangerous. These include commodity bubbles, large-scale capital flight and sheer market panic. Unless the fear that has beset investors subsides, gyrations in commodity and share prices will carry on this week and beyond.

The greater fear is a combination of slowing growth, rising interest rates on sovereign debt and a marked decline in consumer and investor confidence. That is compounded by growing indications that expansion in China and other emerging markets is slowing, which would hurt exporting economies like those of the US and Germany, which are respectively the world economy's locomotive and the euro zone's powerhouse.

Austerity plans in Europe and now the US are hurting private consumption and investment, just as households and businesses are paying off debt and being squeezed by higher commodity prices, notably for oil. This dangerous dynamic depresses the economy.

Similarly, banks and governments are caught in a vicious circle of mutual dependence. Banks hold national bonds that serve as collateral in interbank lending but are falling in value. That exacerbates funding shortages, which over time may require bank bailouts just when governments face sovereign debt crises. If global investors keep swapping national bonds for safer assets, this vicious circle will mutate into a downwards spiral.

With political leadership lacking, market attention has shifted to central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB). Nervous investors will look for any signs of another round of asset purchases (or quantitative easing) when the Fed meets on Tuesday. Likewise, European stock markets will probably continue to plunge unless the ECB starts buying both Spanish and Italian bonds. But central bank interventions can provide a temporary reprieve at best.

Western governments must now confront three challenges: in the short term they need to restore investor and consumer confidence by getting real about faltering growth and growing debt. Cutting sales taxes or suspending payroll taxes, for example, could boost consumption, investment and employment.

In the medium term, governments have to come up with credible programmes for growth and job creation. Local investment trusts and regional banks are needed to fund high-tech manufacturing. States could also underwrite needed infrastructure projects and support vocational training.

In the long term, a global "grand bargain" is needed to ensure that the burden of fixing the global imbalance between debtors and creditors does not fall on debtors alone.

Leaving that burden all with debtors would be a mistake. Across the West, austerity is already expected to have an effect twice as bad as in the last synchronised squeeze in the 1980s, which bequeathed high unemployment and deindustrialisation. Meanwhile, China's property boom is close to bust and its manufacturing output is slowing.

A conference call of G7 finance ministers before Asian markets open today won't do; only a grand bargain will.

Unless the collective interest is defended, currency or trade wars could trigger a collapse in global economic activity - not unlike the 1870s or the 1930s when a recession turned into a depression.

Last week, that prospect became frighteningly real.

Adrian Pabst is lecturer in politics at the University of Kent, UK, and visiting professor at the Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Lille, France

MEDIEVIL (1998)

Developer: SCE Studio Cambridge
Publisher: Sony Computer Entertainment
Console: PlayStation, PlayStation 4 and 5
Rating: 3.5/5

Specs

Engine: 2-litre

Transmission: Eight-speed automatic

Power: 255hp

Torque: 273Nm

Price: Dh240,000

RESULTS

6.30pm UAE 1000 Guineas Trial Conditions (TB) US$100,000 (Dirt) 1,400m

Winner Final Song, Christophe Soumillon (jockey), Saeed bin Suroor (trainer).

7.05pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (Turf) 1,000m

Winner Almanaara, Dane O’Neill, Doug Watson.

7.40pm Handicap (TB) $175,000 (D) 1,900m

Winner Grand Argentier, Brett Doyle, Doug Watson.

8.15pm Meydan Challenge Listed Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 1,400m

Winner Major Partnership, Patrick Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor.

8.50pm Dubai Stakes Group 3 (TB) $200,000 (D) 1,200m

Winner Gladiator King, Mickael Barzalona, Satish Seemar.

9.25pm Dubai Racing Club Classic Listed Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 2,410m

Winner Universal Order, Richard Mullen, David Simcock.

Juvenile arthritis

Along with doctors, families and teachers can help pick up cases of arthritis in children.
Most types of childhood arthritis are known as juvenile idiopathic arthritis. JIA causes pain and inflammation in one or more joints for at least six weeks.
Dr Betina Rogalski said "The younger the child the more difficult it into pick up the symptoms. If the child is small, it may just be a bit grumpy or pull its leg a way or not feel like walking,” she said.
According to The National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases in US, the most common symptoms of juvenile arthritis are joint swelling, pain, and stiffness that doesn’t go away. Usually it affects the knees, hands, and feet, and it’s worse in the morning or after a nap.
Limping in the morning because of a stiff knee, excessive clumsiness, having a high fever and skin rash are other symptoms. Children may also have swelling in lymph nodes in the neck and other parts of the body.
Arthritis in children can cause eye inflammation and growth problems and can cause bones and joints to grow unevenly.
In the UK, about 15,000 children and young people are affected by arthritis.

Du Football Champions

The fourth season of du Football Champions was launched at Gitex on Wednesday alongside the Middle East’s first sports-tech scouting platform.“du Talents”, which enables aspiring footballers to upload their profiles and highlights reels and communicate directly with coaches, is designed to extend the reach of the programme, which has already attracted more than 21,500 players in its first three years.

SPECS

Engine: 2-litre 4-cylinder petrol (V Class); electric motor with 60kW or 90kW powerpack (EQV)
Power: 233hp (V Class, best option); 204hp (EQV, best option)
Torque: 350Nm (V Class, best option); TBA (EQV)
On sale: Mid-2024
Price: TBA