UK general election: What to expect as voters deliver their verdict

Your guide to polling day and beyond as Labour's Keir Starmer eyes victory over Rishi Sunak

Live updates: Follow the latest news on the UK general election

The UK goes to the polls for its general election on Thursday, with voters expected to deliver a scathing verdict on 14 years of Conservative rule by handing power to Labour.

Final polling forecasts showed Labour's Keir Starmer on course to win more than 400 out of 650 seats, with some predicting the Conservatives will have fewer than 100.

All but conceding defeat, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has urged voters to "stop the Labour super majority", which he said would lead to higher taxes.

Mr Sunak set the July 4 election date after months of speculation, hoping to benefit from falling inflation and urging voters to “stick with the plan” under the Tories.

But Mr Starmer’s Labour Party has hardly had its poll lead dented in a campaign focused on change and economic competence.

“We’ve now had 14 years of chaos and division and failure, and the choice tomorrow is to bring that to an end,” he told activists on the campaign’s final day.

The right-wing Reform UK, the Greens, Liberal Democrats, Scottish and Welsh nationalists and assorted minor parties – including a raft of pro-Palestinian candidates – are also bidding for votes and seats.

If the polls are correct, it would mark a remarkable turnaround in British politics after a near-landslide win for the Conservatives under Boris Johnson in 2019.

YouGov, in its eve-of-election opinion poll, had Labour winning with 39 per cent of the vote, the Conservatives on 22 per cent, Reform UK at 15 per cent and the Liberal Democrats with 12 per cent.

That would translate into 431 Labour seats in the Parliament – where 326 seats is the majority – and 102 seats for the Conservatives as the main opposition party. The collapse would see the ruling party shed more than two-thirds of the seats won in 2019.

It predicted that 16 of 26 cabinet ministers in the outgoing government would lose their seas, including finance minister Jeremy Hunt, plus a host of prominent figures such as leadership contenders Penny Mordaunt and Grant Shapps.

Polls suggest many voters who backed the Conservatives five years ago have gone sour after five turbulent years covering three prime ministers, the Covid-19 pandemic and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Several projections show Labour leader Keir Starmer on course for the biggest landslide in Britain's postwar history, surpassing Tony Blair's 1997 rout.

Senior Conservatives including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and former party leader Iain Duncan Smith are among big names who could lose their seats.

Labour is also vulnerable in a handful of seats where pro-Palestinian campaigners are hoping to mobilise Muslim votes.

Results will come in overnight and, assuming there is a clear winner, either Mr Sunak or Mr Starmer will address the public from Downing Street on Friday.

Here is our guide to the coming hours, days and weeks.

Thursday morning: Polls open

Polls are open from 7am to 10pm UK time. Voters in 650 constituencies choose a candidate to be their local MP.

A law brought in at the last election in 2019 means voters must produce official ID such as a passport or driving licence.

The deadline has passed for British expats to apply for a postal or proxy vote, unless there is an emergency.

Thursday night: Exit poll

At 10pm, broadcasters reveal the results of an exit poll – a first estimate of the results. Pollsters ask thousands of people to fill in a mock ballot paper indicating how they voted.

The exit poll is usually quite accurate. In 2019, it predicted a Conservative majority of 86. The final figure was 80. In 2024 it would be a huge upset if it failed to show Labour on course for a majority.

As counting begins, this might be the moment for a nap – even for senior officials, revealed Alex Thomas, a former private secretary to late civil service chief Jeremy Heywood.

After the 2017 exit poll, Mr Heywood went to sleep for a few hours then caught up with TV coverage by watching it at double speed, Mr Thomas told an Institute for Government event.

Overnight Thursday into Friday: Results come in

Each of the 650 constituencies counts and declares its result in turn.

A few will declare within a couple of hours, giving an early glimpse at possible national trends.

The trickle of results will turn to a flood between about 3am and 5am, meaning the national picture should be clear by breakfast time in Britain.

Mr Sunak and Mr Starmer will be expected to give speeches in their own constituencies, likely giving a first reaction to the emerging national result.

Friday morning: Moment of triumph

Britain has no ‘transition period’ unless there is a need for coalition negotiations, as there was in 2010.

If the result is clear cut, Mr Sunak will head to Buckingham Palace on Friday morning. If he wins, King Charles III will reappoint him Prime Minister.

More likely, he will tender his resignation after a farewell speech on Downing Street. The sight of removal vans on the street has become a symbol of the handover.

Mr Starmer would head to the palace soon afterwards and formally “kiss hands” with the king.

There would then be a triumphant arrival at Downing Street and a first speech outside No 10’s famous black door.

Friday afternoon: Appointments and calls

Once in Downing Street, the new prime minister would set about appointing his Cabinet.

It would be a surprise if Mr Starmer did not appoint Rachel Reeves as chancellor of the exchequer and David Lammy as foreign secretary.

“You would expect it to be pretty quick through the course of Friday afternoon, to have probably most or even all of the Cabinet by the end of Friday,” Mr Thomas said.

Who's who in the Labour shadow cabinet - in pictures

No 10 would also be fielding congratulatory messages from world leaders. The order in which calls are taken will be watched by pundits.

And there are sensitive security matters that cannot wait. A new leader must write ‘letters of last resort’ to the UK’s nuclear missile submarines, with sealed orders in the event the British government is wiped out.

First week: Foreign and domestic tasks

A new Labour administration would have to decide whether to make any changes to the machinery of government.

It could, for example, set up dedicated teams for its five policy “missions” on the economy, crime, clean energy, health and equality.

Mr Starmer would also have to make a quick entry into foreign affairs, with a Nato summit in Washington next week.

It would be his first time speaking for Britain on the international stage with leaders such as US President Joe Biden and France’s Emmanuel Macron.

First 100 days: Key priorities

The state opening of Parliament is set for July 17. By then, the new government must write a King’s Speech setting out its legislative plans.

These could include Labour’s promised ‘first steps’ such as setting up a new public energy company and border security command.

A global investment summit is planned within the first 100 days of a Labour government and there are suggestions of a swift move on planning reform.

The day after the state opening, Mr Starmer will be back on the world stage as he hosts a European Political Community summit for almost 50 leaders.

“I think what you’ll see essentially is Keir Starmer love-bombing the European leaders and just underline there has been a massive change of tone,” said politics professor Anand Menon of the think tank UK in a Changing Europe.

The message will be "we want to be your friends, we want to be your allies, we want to work together closely”, he said.