Some private schools are seeing a 20 per cent drop in new pupil numbers ahead of the expected introduction of Labour’s sales tax on fees, if it wins next month's general election.
The party has pledged to impose VAT on independent fees “straight away”, if elected on July 4.
The latest annual census from the Independent Schools Council revealed the number of pupils enrolling with private schools has fallen by 2.7 per cent in the past year – the biggest reduction since data was first collected in 2011.
But some independent schools are reporting significantly larger falls in the number of pupils joining this September.
Christine Cunniffe, head teacher at LVS Ascot, in Berkshire, southern England, told The National the school has seen a 20 per cent fall in pupils joining in Year 6 and Year 7, which are among the school’s most common entry points.
The number of children joining in Reception has also fallen, she said. The school had been planning for a bumper year with 18 pupils, which would have required moving to a new room. Since then there have been five withdrawals, leaving a class of just 13.
“I think the prep schools are going to see a bigger drop off. It might be that people will be worried about starting the journey. And then I think people will probably choose to send their children in later years,” she said.
Stafford Grammar School, in Staffordshire, central England, has also seen a 20 per cent fall in new applications for September for the prep school. Most pupils enter the school at Reception, Year 3 and Year 5, said head teacher Nick Pietrek.
“All of them are down,” he told The National. “In terms of our numbers we have dropped by 20 per cent into our primary school.”
“We are 430 pupils at the moment. We will be 400 pupils for next year. So, we are already losing significantly more than the 2.7 per cent indicated leaving the sector.
“I think we would have been growing – not declining – if it were not for the policy. I think we would have been up to around 450.”
Gatehouse School in Hackney, East London, which is non-selective charitable school which charges less than average at under £5,000 a term, has seen a rise in applications for September due to the closure of a private school nearby. It has not seen any of its current pupils leaving, yet.
But parents have informed the school they will be pulling their children out of school if Labour wins, as it is widely expected to do so. The school is anticipating a loss of about 20 per cent of its pupils.
“There are some families who are very close to giving notice because they are just waiting for July 4. Everything is hoping something will happen last minute and that doesn’t come in,” headteacher Sevda Korbay told The National.
“Where we are in East London, the state schools are full. And if they are not full, you question why they are not full. That’s the dilemma the parents have. You can see why they are holding on with their fingertips.”
Over the weekend, Labour’s shadow attorney general, Emily Thornberry, said the policy may result in an influx to the state school sector, saying “it would be fine if we have to, in the short term, have larger classes” amid concerns the move could force pupils to leave private schools.
But shadow education secretary Bridget Phillipson, rejected this, saying there were actually “falling number of pupils in our classrooms because of the falling birth rate, and there are fewer young people arriving at school”.
“So, actually, we are going to be in the position pretty soon – and it is already the case in places like London – where schools are merging and closing because of falling numbers,” she said.
Rudolf Eliott Lockhart, chief executive of the Independent Schools Association, told The National further drops in enrolment are likely if Labour introduces the policy.
“This will do disproportionate damage to small, local, independent schools offering specialist provision,” he added.
Unions have also raised concerns about the policy, warning Labour’s plans to tax private school fees could result in job losses and a decline in the quality of independent education.
Patrick Roach, general secretary of the NASUWT union, has previously said he is “concerned” about the possible consequences of Labour’s proposals.
“We will be keen to discuss with a new government how the proposal to apply VAT to independent schools will be implemented in practice, and how the government will work with the sector to ensure that children’s education and teachers’ jobs are protected,” he told The National.
“No one wants to see any school – whether in the state sector or independent school – facing financial pressures that are to the detriment of children’s education.”
Gianpaolo Mantini, a chartered financial planner and partner with wealth manager Saltus, which recently predicted an exodus of about 21 per cent of pupils as a result of the policy, told The National jobs will be lost directly and indirectly across the private sector.
He said: “If because the school is very price sensitive, it becomes economically unviable, you will find people who will lose their jobs, because the school will close or they will reduce services. But it won’t just be limited to teachers.
“It will be teaching assistants, auxiliary staff, people working in the kitchens or grounds staff or maintenance people. So there will be a lot of people affected directly and indirectly.”
Around 6 per cent of children attend private school, but the numbers vary across the country. In London, it is around 12 per cent.
Mr Mantini said the allocation of state school places could become problematic for children who are removed from the private sector. They could, he said, end up in “all the schools that nobody wants to go to”.
“Within any local authority, there will be schools that don’t get fully subscribed.
“But the better state schools will be oversubscribed. So, does that mean that you were at private school, so therefore, you are going to be placed in all the schools that nobody wants to go to?”
A Local Government Association spokesman told The National councils have a “legal duty to ensure capacity” but currently have no powers to open new secondary schools or direct academies to expand.
“This ruling needs to be amended as soon as possible to ensure as many children as possible get the places they want,” he said.
“Every child should have a fair chance of getting into their parents’ preferred school and councils and schools work extremely hard to try and ensure that as many pupils as possible are allocated their first preference.”
