ISIS influence waning as group searches for new leader, say experts

Abu Ibrahim Al Hashimi Al Qurayshi died a week ago in a US raid

On February 3, a US raid on a small home in Syria’s border with Turkey deprived ISIS of its little-known leader.

Muhammad Al Mawla, nom de guerre Abu Ibrahim Al Hashimi Al Qurayshi, maintained a far lower profile than his predecessor, known as Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi.

Who his successor will be is anyone’s guess. Analysts have made various predictions including ISIS spokesman Abu Hamza Al Qurayshi Al Baghdadi, who announced Al Baghdadi’s replacement in 2019 after he was killed in another US raid.

By what criteria will ISIS select a new leader?

ISIS requires a credible leader, or 'Caliph', to have good health, substantial religious scholarship and, most importantly, lineage to Quraysh, the tribe of the Prophet Mohammed.

Abu Ibrahim arguably met only one such criterion.

“He was missing a limb – a leg, which was amputated. So, technically speaking, he did not have the physical fitness to be a Caliph,” Aymenn Al Tamimi, research fellow at George Washington University’s Programme on Extremism, told The National.

Al Mawla’s lineage to Quraysh was also questionable. As indicated by his last name, he was a member of Al Mawla, a Turkmen-speaking tribe in Iraq.

“The Al Mawla tribe is of Arab origin, although many of them espouse a Turkmen identity ... [Abu Ibrahim] also went by a Turkmen identity because one of his names was Qardash, which means brother in Turkish. So he was a Turkmen and Arab at the same time,” Mr Al Tamimi said.

ISIS: interrogation report. Source: United States Military

Typically, a group called Ahl Al Hall Wal-Aqd (The People of Solving Problems and Making Contracts) chooses a leader and pledges allegiance to him before, in this case, ISIS followers do the same in mosques.

But Abu Ibrahim’s low profile made his nomination by Ahl Al Hall Wal-Aqd somewhat contentious.

Aron Lund is a a Middle East analyst at the Swedish Defence Research Agency and a fellow of Century International, part of think tank The Century Foundation.

He believes ISIS tried to conceal Abu Ibrahim’s identity, frustrating even some fellow extremists “who opposed the idea of pledging allegiance to a faceless, nameless caliph”.

“As with the ethnicity issue, most ISIS subgroups and members seem to have shrugged off the controversy, trusting their leadership and ignoring the protestations of outsiders,” Mr Lund said.

Shrinking authority

Whoever ISIS decides to appoint as its third leader, experts say he will reign over a weakened organisation. In its heyday, in 2015, ISIS controlled large parts of Syria and Iraq, with affiliates in at least eight countries.

Even the US-led coalition to defeat ISIS said Abu Ibrahim had “little impact” as leader.

ISIS lost its final stronghold in a battle in Baghouz, Syria, in 2019, the end of its territorial rule.

“The killing of [Abu Ibrahim] is significant, no doubt, although, in the bigger picture, I don’t think it leads to a real change in how ISIS has been operating, which is low-level sustained insurgency both in Iraq and Syria, and also around the world,” Mr Tamimi said.

Caliphate beyond reach

Similarly, Orwa Ajjoub, a senior analyst at the Centre for Operational Analysis and Research, said a so-called Caliphate 2.0 may not be on the horizon for the fallen group.

“For a long period of his time as leader, [Abu Bakr] Al Baghdadi was able to meet with his seniors and Al Wulat [authority holders] and run the organisation as a whole, whereas Abu Ibrahim was not as connected to his group due to the different reality on the ground, ISIS’s relative weakness and because the international community took over the land that the group once controlled.”

Now, Mr Ajjoub says, ISIS is primarily composed of sleeper cells and lone wolves, although this does not mean they do not pose a threat.

“ISIS does not have the manpower or the resources to create another state right now. The operation and scale of ISIS fighters does not indicate that they are seeking to impose control over territory but only to disrupt stability and create chaos for their so-called enemies.”

Until a new leader is announced, the consensus among Syria watchers, analysts and even counter-terrorism forces is that an attack similar to the raid of Hassakeh should not be disregarded.

A boy crosses a field on the outskirts of the village of Baghouz in Deir Ezzor province, northern Syria. There, two years ago, ISIS made its stand and was defeated. In March 2019, Baghouz was a wasteland and roads were dotted with ruined homes. Now, residents have started to renovate buildings, children have returned to schools, and businesses have reopened. AFP

A fighter with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces stands guard on a hilltop overlooking the village of Baghouz in Deir Ezzor province, northern Syria, where two years ago ISIS made its last stand and was defeated. AFP

Twisted metal wreckage left behind by heavy fighting in the village of Baghouz in the Deir Ezzor province of northern Syria reminds villagers and visitors that two years ago ISIS was defeated. AFP

Fighters of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces stand guard in the streets of Baghouz, a village in Deir Ezzor province of northern Syria. Two years ago after the defeat of ISIS there, homes and buildings are being renovated, children are back in school, and a handful of businesses has reopened. AFP

A fighter with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces stands guard on a road on the outskirts of Baghouz village in Deir Ezzor province, northern Syria. Two years ago, ISIS made its last stand in Baghouz and was defeated. AFP

Young shepherds work near buildings damaged by fighting in the village of Baghouz in Syria's northern Deir Ezzor province. AFP

A woman carries freshly harvested grass for cattle as passes buildings damaged by fighting in ISIS' last stand, which took place in the village of Baghouz in Syria's northern Deir Ezzor province, two years ago. AFP

A shepherd is pictured in fields on the outskirts of the village of Baghouz in Deir Ezzor province, northern Syria, two years after ISIS made its last stand there. AFP

A partial view of the village of Baghouz in Syria's northern Deir Ezzor province. Fighters from ISIS were purged from the village two years ago, but the twisted metal wreckage of war remains on the streets, some homes still lie empty and ISIS graffiti can still be seen on walls. AFP

A fighter with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces stands guard on a hilltop overlooking the Syria village of Baghouz, where two years ago ISIS made its last stand and was defeated. AFP

A fighter with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) stands guard near a field on the outskirts of the village of Baghouz in Syria's northern Deir Ezzor province, where two years ago ISIS was defeated. AFP

ISIS was defeated at Baghouz in northern Syria two years ago. Today, residents have started to repair buildings, children have returned to school, and businesses have reopened. AFP

Wreckage left behind by fighting marks the defeat of ISIS in the northern Syrian village of Baghouz. AFP