Lebanon's economic crisis will lead to chaos if left unchecked, one of the country's political leaders has told The National.
For more than 15 years, Michel Moawad, leader of the Independence Movement, has campaigned for a sovereign and independent Lebanon.
But the country, he said, can ill-afford to wait for a new Parliament to begin tackling the worst economic crisis in its modern history.
The National is interviewing political and civil society figures who are looking ahead to elections in 2022, claiming they can offer a route out of the crisis.
We are very close to reaching a comprehensive agreement that will bring major opposition groups under the umbrella of a uniform programme
Once known for its vibrant banking sector, tourism industry and nightlife, more than half of Lebanon's people are now in poverty.
"The cost of inaction will be tremendous both for ordinary Lebanese and the international community if Lebanon were to turn into a failed state," Mr Moawad – the son of Rene Moawad, the Lebanese president murdered in November 1989 after just 18 days in office – told The National.
Mr Moawad was speaking from his residence in Baabda overlooking Beirut port – the site of a massive explosion in August which strained Lebanon's already battered economy.
Mr Moawad resigned from Parliament after the blast in protest at what he said was widespread corruption throughout the state.
He was joined by a number of independent MPs and members of the Kataeb party, another opposition group.
Since then, Mr Moawad has called for a transitional government of independent experts to contain the crisis and prepare for parliamentary elections scheduled for May 2022.
But Mr Moawad's calls, like those of his opposition peers, are falling on deaf ears.
Lebanon is still without a fully functioning government and it is still not known what triggered the explosion, who owned the explosive chemicals stored there or why they were kept unsafely for six years at one of the region's busiest ports, with the knowledge of the country's top officials and security agencies.
A new economic model
Mr Moawad said the lack of accountability and worsening economic crisis led the Independence Movement and like-minded opposition groups to rethink their programme beyond the traditional political divide over the pivotal issue of Iran-backed Hezbollah's weapons.
“Prioritising Lebanon’s national interests over foreign agendas is key to the stability and prosperity of our country but should go hand in hand with a new economic model that protects our free-market economy and upholds our liberal values while advancing social justice,” he said.
That model is currently being discussed with the Kataeb party among other opposition groups, Mr Moawad said.
“We are very close to reaching a comprehensive agreement that will bring major opposition groups under the umbrella of a uniform programme that touches on reforming Lebanon’s political system and economic model.”
This programme touches on a wide array of reforms, from the introduction of structural economic changes to decentralisation – one of the main political changes stipulated in the 1989 Syrian-Saudi brokered Taif agreement that ended Lebanon's 15-year civil war.
“Our ultimate objective is to build a functioning decentralised civic state that safeguards pluralism and allows the Lebanese to prosper,” he said.
Like his father, Mr Moawad has long-held the belief that Lebanon would prosper only when the state exercises its full sovereignty. This was at the core of the alliance that emerged following the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri in 2005, an event that divided the country into two major rival camps.
The western-backed alliance that brought Mr Moawad together with other members of the March 14 coalition pressured Damascus – blamed by many at the time for Mr Hariri's assassination – into withdrawing its forces from Lebanon after decades of political and military domination .
Rene Moawad died when a car bomb hit his motorcade on Independence Day. He was known for his moderate positions and his efforts to bridge the gap between warring parties.
His assassination, less than three weeks after his election and the ratification of the Taif agreement, was widely blamed on Damascus.
Mr Moawad says his message resonates more than ever today because Lebanon can no longer afford the costs associated with regional tensions between Iran and its rivals.
The heavy toll the economic crisis is taking on the country’s armed forces was evident in the Lebanese army chief's recent, rare criticism of the ruling class.
"Where are we are heading? What are your plans?" Gen Joseph Aoun asked politicians in March as hundreds of Lebanese took to the streets to protest against a record plunge in the Lebanese pound, which has lost more than 85 per cent of its value against the dollar since August 2019.
Since then, Gen Aoun has engaged major powers, including the US and France, to secure financial and logistical aid for the army, as discontent grows among soldiers whose salaries are losing value.
Co-ordinating international aid
French Foreign Minister Jean Yves Le Drian warned Lebanese officials during a visit to Beirut last month that his government was preparing sanctions on officials they regard as responsible for obstructing the formation of a new Cabinet.
Mr Le Drian’s latest visit featured meetings with members of Lebanon’s growing opposition movement, including Mr Moawad.
Mr Moawad said he was urging the international community to support Lebanon's army, healthcare industry and education sector.
“Maintaining a strong and cohesive military institution and vital health and educational services is key to saving Lebanon and laying the foundations for a strong state,” Mr Moawad said.
“Otherwise, chaos will prevail.”
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Timeline
2012-2015
The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East
May 2017
The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts
September 2021
Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act
October 2021
Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence
December 2024
Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group
May 2025
The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan
July 2025
The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan
August 2025
Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision
October 2025
Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange
November 2025
180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE
The%20specs
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'Manmarziyaan' (Colour Yellow Productions, Phantom Films)
Director: Anurag Kashyap
Cast: Abhishek Bachchan, Taapsee Pannu, Vicky Kaushal
Rating: 3.5/5
CONFIRMED%20LINE-UP
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%20Ramez%20Gab%20Min%20El%20Akher
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How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
- Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
- Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
- Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
THE SPECS
2020 Toyota Corolla Hybrid LE
Engine: 1.8 litre combined with 16-volt electric motors
Transmission: Automatic with manual shifting mode
Power: 121hp
Torque: 142Nm
Price: Dh95,900
Know your Camel lingo
The bairaq is a competition for the best herd of 50 camels, named for the banner its winner takes home
Namoos - a word of congratulations reserved for falconry competitions, camel races and camel pageants. It best translates as 'the pride of victory' - and for competitors, it is priceless
Asayel camels - sleek, short-haired hound-like racers
Majahim - chocolate-brown camels that can grow to weigh two tonnes. They were only valued for milk until camel pageantry took off in the 1990s
Millions Street - the thoroughfare where camels are led and where white 4x4s throng throughout the festival
TEST SQUADS
Bangladesh: Mushfiqur Rahim (captain), Tamim Iqbal, Soumya Sarkar, Imrul Kayes, Liton Das, Shakib Al Hasan, Mominul Haque, Nasir Hossain, Sabbir Rahman, Mehedi Hasan, Shafiul Islam, Taijul Islam, Mustafizur Rahman and Taskin Ahmed.
Australia: Steve Smith (captain), David Warner, Ashton Agar, Hilton Cartwright, Pat Cummins, Peter Handscomb, Matthew Wade, Josh Hazlewood, Usman Khawaja, Nathan Lyon, Glenn Maxwell, Matt Renshaw, Mitchell Swepson and Jackson Bird.
The specs
Engine: 2.2-litre, turbodiesel
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Power: 160hp
Torque: 385Nm
Price: Dh116,900
On sale: now
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
The National in Davos
We are bringing you the inside story from the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, a gathering of hundreds of world leaders, top executives and billionaires.
HIJRA
Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy
Director: Shahad Ameen
Rating: 3/5
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
LUKA CHUPPI
Director: Laxman Utekar
Producer: Maddock Films, Jio Cinema
Cast: Kartik Aaryan, Kriti Sanon, Pankaj Tripathi, Vinay Pathak, Aparshakti Khurana
Rating: 3/5
Hydrogen: Market potential
Hydrogen has an estimated $11 trillion market potential, according to Bank of America Securities and is expected to generate $2.5tn in direct revenues and $11tn of indirect infrastructure by 2050 as its production increases six-fold.
"We believe we are reaching the point of harnessing the element that comprises 90 per cent of the universe, effectively and economically,” the bank said in a recent report.
Falling costs of renewable energy and electrolysers used in green hydrogen production is one of the main catalysts for the increasingly bullish sentiment over the element.
The cost of electrolysers used in green hydrogen production has halved over the last five years and will fall to 60 to 90 per cent by the end of the decade, acceding to Haim Israel, equity strategist at Merrill Lynch. A global focus on decarbonisation and sustainability is also a big driver in its development.
Company%20profile
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More from Neighbourhood Watch:
UK’s AI plan
- AI ambassadors such as MIT economist Simon Johnson, Monzo cofounder Tom Blomfield and Google DeepMind’s Raia Hadsell
- £10bn AI growth zone in South Wales to create 5,000 jobs
- £100m of government support for startups building AI hardware products
- £250m to train new AI models
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
Zayed Sustainability Prize
MORE ON IRAN'S PROXY WARS
FIXTURES
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Sunday
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Monday
AC Milan v Bologna (10.45om)
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About Takalam
Date started: early 2020
Founders: Khawla Hammad and Inas Abu Shashieh
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: HealthTech and wellness
Number of staff: 4
Funding to date: Bootstrapped