The fall of the Lebanese pound has broad implications for businesses and wage earners. Reuters
The fall of the Lebanese pound has broad implications for businesses and wage earners. Reuters
The fall of the Lebanese pound has broad implications for businesses and wage earners. Reuters
The fall of the Lebanese pound has broad implications for businesses and wage earners. Reuters

Lebanese lira's fall to speed up as political paralysis goes on, experts say


Fatima Al Mahmoud
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Lebanon's national currency will continue to depreciate unless  steps are taken to tackle the country's economic crisis, experts said.

The lira neared a record low of 10,000 to the dollar,  with small business owners increasingly feeling the burden.

On Tuesday, sporadic protests broke out across Lebanon.

  • A demonstrator sits on the ground near burning fire during a protest against the fall in Lebanese pound currency and mounting economic hardship, in Beirut. Reuters
    A demonstrator sits on the ground near burning fire during a protest against the fall in Lebanese pound currency and mounting economic hardship, in Beirut. Reuters
  • A demonstrator clad in mask coloured with the Lebanese flag reacts as she stands next to flaming tires cutting off a road in the centre of Lebanon's capital Beirut. AFP
    A demonstrator clad in mask coloured with the Lebanese flag reacts as she stands next to flaming tires cutting off a road in the centre of Lebanon's capital Beirut. AFP
  • Demonstrators gesture as they stand by flaming tires cutting off a road in the centre of Lebanon's capital Beirut. AFP
    Demonstrators gesture as they stand by flaming tires cutting off a road in the centre of Lebanon's capital Beirut. AFP
  • Demonstrators gather during a protest against the fall in Lebanese pound currency and mounting economic hardship, in Jal el-Dib. Reuters
    Demonstrators gather during a protest against the fall in Lebanese pound currency and mounting economic hardship, in Jal el-Dib. Reuters
  • Anti-government protesters burn tires to block a main road during a protest against the power cuts, the high cost of living, the low purchasing power of the Lebanese pound, in Jal El Dib area north Beirut. EPA
    Anti-government protesters burn tires to block a main road during a protest against the power cuts, the high cost of living, the low purchasing power of the Lebanese pound, in Jal El Dib area north Beirut. EPA
  • A street vendor holds his balloons during a protest against the fall in Lebanese pound currency and mounting economic hardship, in Beirut. Reuters
    A street vendor holds his balloons during a protest against the fall in Lebanese pound currency and mounting economic hardship, in Beirut. Reuters
  • Demonstrators gather and ride on motorbikes during a protest against the fall in Lebanese pound currency and mounting economic hardship, in Beirut. Reuters
    Demonstrators gather and ride on motorbikes during a protest against the fall in Lebanese pound currency and mounting economic hardship, in Beirut. Reuters
  • Demonstrators stand near burning tires during a protest against the fall in Lebanese pound currency and mounting economic hardship, in the town of Hasbaya, Lebanon. Reuters
    Demonstrators stand near burning tires during a protest against the fall in Lebanese pound currency and mounting economic hardship, in the town of Hasbaya, Lebanon. Reuters
  • A demonstrator sets a tire aflame while cutting off a road in the centre of Lebanon's capital Beirut late. AFP
    A demonstrator sets a tire aflame while cutting off a road in the centre of Lebanon's capital Beirut late. AFP

Samer Sleiman, a fruit and vegetable vendor in Beirut, said his income is barely enough to cover food and drink.

With five mouths to feed at home, the vendor works day and night to be able to afford the basics.

"Whatever we don't need we don't buy from the supermarket," Mr Sleiman told The National. "We're living with whatever we have."

The lira's fall has no end in sight, and the economy can only be redeemed with serious reforms, experts warned.

“The fate of the lira depends on what those in power do,” said Dan Azzi, former chairman and chief executive of Standard Chartered bank Lebanon. “If the situation continues as is, the lira can reach 50,000. There’s no ceiling.”

Officially pegged at 1,500 to the dollar, the lira has lost more than 80 per cent of its value since late 2019, when a liquidity crunch ushered in the worst economic and financial crisis to hit Lebanon since the end of the civil war.

The record fall in the lira eroded the purchasing power of earners, with the official monthly minimum wage down from the equivalent of $450 to about $67.

Food prices have more than tripled, according to the World Food Programme in Lebanon, while more than half of the population is now living below the poverty line, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia said.

Despite the crisis, Lebanese officials have yet to appoint a government that will carry out reforms needed to release International Monetary Fund (IMF) support.

The negotiations, which kicked off in the first half of 2020, were suspended later that year over disagreements on the economic recovery plan.

Henri Chaoul, a former member of Lebanon’s official negotiation team and former adviser to the Ministry of Finance, said an agreement was “still very far away”.

Mr Chaoul said he quit his position in June of last year after realising that the ruling class “were not serious about reforms”.

"I realised it was all a joke," he told The National. "No one should be surprised that the pound is at 10,000 or higher."

Mr Chaoul said the only solution to the crisis lay in the formation of government independent of Lebanese sectarian politics and equipped with exceptional legislative powers.

“You cannot fix the problem by going through the same parliament that prioritises the private interests of politicians rather than the public interest,” Mr Chaoul said.

His views were echoed by Mr Azzi, who downplayed the odds of tangible reforms under the status quo.

“If it takes them eight months to a year to form a government, how would they solve the crisis? How can we expect different results?” Mr Azzi said.

Andy Khalil, an economics researcher, said that the increase in lira supply amid a dollar shortage will speed up the lira's devaluation.

“You have more money in people’s hands, but the money is worthless because it is not backed by a real asset," he said.

"The central bank is issuing more currency absent buying something of worth in return.

"It’s like me printing out images of the Lebanese pound and handing them out, same thing. It has no value.”

The absence of a transparent and complete foreign exchange market is making the crisis worse, Mr Khalil said.

“What good is the currency if it’s stable at 1,500 but we can’t buy a chocolate bar with it because of supply shortages?"

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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