Jordan’s Syria policy caught in the middle as rapprochement intensifies

Interests of bigger players threaten kingdom’s push for engagement

Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi. The kingdom wants Syria to curb drug smuggling and Iranian milia activity before benefitting from any rapprochement. Reuters

In a region still divided on how to deal with Syria, Jordan has emerged as a keen advocate for Arab engagement with President Bashar Al Assad.

The kingdom is among nine Arab countries meeting in Jeddah on Friday to narrow differences on whether to restore Damascus's Arab League membership.

It could be a major symbolic breakthrough for Mr Al Assad and for Russia, his most powerful supporter.

Syria’s membership was suspended in 2011 over its violent suppression of peaceful demonstrations against five decades of Assad family rule.

One consequence of the ensuing civil war has been Syria’s fragmentation into Turkish, Russian, Iranian and US spheres of influence, but none for Arab powers.

The country has also become the theatre for a low-intensity war of attrition between Iran and Israel.

Captagon crisis

The south became a launch pad for the export of the amphetamine Captagon into Jordan, with the kingdom's officials saying the Syrian military and militias teamed up with Iran to sponsor the trade.

“Jordan's policy is gradual. It aims to break the wall of Syria’s isolation while extracting concessions from the regime,” said Prof Hasan Al Momani from the University of Jordan.

“Alone, Jordan cannot make a difference,” said Prof Al Momani, who teaches international relations, as he referred to the kingdom's need to co-ordinate with Arab heavyweights, as well as with the US.

He said that even if Damascus returned to the Arab League, the US and Europe would remain opposed to the rapprochement.

Saud Sharafat, a veteran security specialist who runs a research centre in Amman, said the Jordanian initiative did not appear to have US support as a result of Iran's presence in Syria.

Tehran calls the shots in Syria, Mr Sharafat said, and Washington did not seem convinced that “the regime’s rehabilitation is useful”.

The Captagon flows began in 2018 after a deal was reached by Russia, the US and Israel to hand back most of southern Syria to the Assad government, with Arab and western countries abandoning support for rebel areas.

Moscow also wants Arab states to pour in money to fund reconstruction as the civil war grinds on.

Meanwhile, Kurdish militia allied with Washington control the country’s oilfields.

In the past several months, Jordan has circulated a “step-by-step” plan to its allies in the region and abroad.

Jordanian officials have suggested that any diplomatic and monetary gains for Damascus from rehabilitation would need to be met by the Assad government moving to curb drug smuggling and pro-Iranian militia activity.

Damascus will also be required to give guarantees for the safe return of refugees, including allowing Arab nations to establish their presence in areas where the refugees would go.

Mr Momani says the Jordanian initiative received a boost from an Arab humanitarian drive after an earthquake in February killed 7,000 people in Syria, as well as subsequent trips to Damascus by senior Arab officials for the first time in more than a decade.

“Jordan wants Arab support for the initiative to become a basis for a peace process in Syria,” said Mr Momani. “It will not be cost-free for the regime.”

Diplomatic push

Two years ago, Jordan pushed, with the support of the US, for a cross-border deal that would result in Damascus supplying Lebanon with power and gas.

The deal would have put Damascus on the regional economic map and strengthened its influence in Lebanon, from where Syrian troops pulled out after a 29-year presence.

It did not take off, partly because of financial reasons and because Washington became wary about the potential rewards for Damascus after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.