Iran’s scientists have “solved one half of the ballistic missile puzzle” by developing a workable third-stage rocket booster, leading defence analysts said.
The stakes for a nuclear stand-off were raised after Tehran launched a satellite rocket that could easily be converted into a nuclear missile with a range of about 5,000 kilometres, bringing cities such as London within reach.
Missile experts believe it is now clear Iran is opting for “range over accuracy” in seeking to develop nuclear-tipped intermediate-range ballistic missiles, a strategy that has also been followed by Iran’s ally North Korea.
The worrying Iranian advances are likely to feature in negotiations over its nuclear programme with US President Joe Biden’s administration.
While Iran can claim it is sending civilian communications into space legitimately using its Zuljanah satellite delivery vehicles, security experts said the rocket’s motors could be used to test IRBMs.
"In theory, they could take those motors and use them to build a missile rather than a satellite launch vehicle, at which point it would be their most important solid-fuel propellant ballistic missile," Jeremy Binnie, Middle East editor of Jane's Defence Weekly, told The National.
The Zuljanah’s launch into the high atmosphere marks a crucial new stage in Tehran’s ballistic development, said Justin Bronk, an airpower expert at the Royal United Services Institute, a think tank.
“The Iranians seem to have got to a stage where they have solved one half of the IRBM puzzle, which is the boost phase in effect.”
This didn’t mean Iran had a missile capable of “high-velocity re-entry” through the Earth’s atmosphere, he said. But the use of space launch rockets and long-range ballistic missiles have been “relatively interchangeable for decades”, Mr Bronk said, with the 1960s and 1970s British Blue Streak project used as the basis for the European Space Agency’s Ariane space rocket.
Iran announced it had test-launched its first Zuljanah vehicle in late January after a defence ministry spokesman said the regime had achieved “its most powerful rocket engine”.
The Zuljanah is a 25-metre, three-stage rocket with a solid-fuel engine that can send a 220kg payload up to a height of 500km to launch a satellite. But experts believe that if the scientists lowered its trajectory they could send a one-tonne warhead about 5,000km.
While the Iranians might be on course to launch a nuclear weapon on a sub-orbital trajectory, they still lack the capability to land the bomb with reasonable accuracy on a target such as London, 4,400km away.
But highly skilled Iranian scientists will now be seeking to overcome the technical obstacles of atmosphere re-entry at high speed.
“This requires a large amount of money as you need to test repeatedly both the missile telemetry and, crucially, the re-entry vehicle performance,” Mr Bronk said. “That’s why the many tests are very valuable for the North Koreans and highly disturbing to the Americans.”
It is understood that North Korea has provided significant technical assistance to Iran.
Dough Barrie, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, believes that Iran previously focused on developing accurate cruise and medium-range missiles but has now opted for “range over accuracy”.
“One of the things we’ve seen them doing is to really push extending the ranges of their ballistic arsenal significantly,” he said.
The ever-growing arsenal and improvements in the Iranian missiles does look incredibly threatening
In the past year, Iran has developed the Salman rocket motor, used for satellite launches, which is capable of moving its nozzle to vector its thruster, making it much more accurate.
“The Salman thrust vectoring engine produces improved accuracy in the final stage,” Mr Binnie said. “This is all part of investing heavily in ballistic missile technology and steadily improving what they’ve got.”
Another important aspect of the solid fuel propellant is that it allows missiles to be fuelled and stored in silos for long periods. Liquid fuel is less stable, so rockets require fuelling shortly before launch, delaying their use and giving spy satellites the opportunity to detect hostile intent.
“These missiles would be ready to go and a lot easier to bring into action,” Mr Binnie said. “It helps in terms of having a more credible deterrence to have missiles that are ready to launch when they need them.”
But Iran’s missile arsenal is having a destabilising impact on the region, with Gulf states buying increasingly sophisticated jets to maintain a technological edge.
“The Iranians have their missiles to counter that,” Mr Binnie said. “They cannot get state-of-the-art jets because of sanctions so they’ve invested in missiles to counter the air superiority arrayed against them.
“But now the ever-growing arsenal and improvements in the Iranian missiles does look incredibly threatening. There’s an arms race going on in the region and that is destabilising.”
The arms build-up is something that could be addressed in any future deal between Iran and the West, which is more likely with Mr Biden in power.
In an interview with The National last week, Lt Gen John Lorimer, Britain's most senior commander in the Middle East, said Iran was building up its forces to strengthen its position in negotiations with America on the nuclear agreement.
“I agree entirely with Gen Lorimer in the sense that Iran is playing up to the potential of the Zuljanah test and it’s very much about strengthening Iran’s hand,” Mr Bronk said.
But he believes the deal is likely to concentrate solely on Iran’s nuclear programme rather that its missiles, which is why Tehran is talking up its uranium enrichment levels.
“If they overplay the nuclear missile capability it risks seriously blowing back on them,” he said.
“Frankly, most of the countries with whom they’re really interested in getting a deal have well-proven nuclear deterrence capabilities themselves. And it’s hardly a stretch that if the British were concerned about a threat to London then Iran would know that they would obviously get flattened by Trident missiles. Iran understands its strength is to operate below the threshold of explicit conflict.”
Experts believe there is a long way to go before Iran could have a nuclear-capable missile. The Iranians could speed up development by increasing missile test firing to make a viable re-entry vehicle, but this would send a clear signal of intent and likely lead to an armed response by America and its allies.
Instead, they are expected to test satellite rockets once every six months, perfecting them without drawing undue attention, potentially leading to Iran becoming a nuclear-capable nation.
HIJRA
Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy
Director: Shahad Ameen
Rating: 3/5
First Person
Richard Flanagan
Chatto & Windus
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
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Did you know?
Brunch has been around, is some form or another, for more than a century. The word was first mentioned in print in an 1895 edition of Hunter’s Weekly, after making the rounds among university students in Britain. The article, entitled Brunch: A Plea, argued the case for a later, more sociable weekend meal. “By eliminating the need to get up early on Sunday, brunch would make life brighter for Saturday night carousers. It would promote human happiness in other ways as well,” the piece read. “It is talk-compelling. It puts you in a good temper, it makes you satisfied with yourself and your fellow beings, it sweeps away the worries and cobwebs of the week.” More than 100 years later, author Guy Beringer’s words still ring true, especially in the UAE, where brunches are often used to mark special, sociable occasions.
Iran's dirty tricks to dodge sanctions
There’s increased scrutiny on the tricks being used to keep commodities flowing to and from blacklisted countries. Here’s a description of how some work.
1 Going Dark
A common method to transport Iranian oil with stealth is to turn off the Automatic Identification System, an electronic device that pinpoints a ship’s location. Known as going dark, a vessel flicks the switch before berthing and typically reappears days later, masking the location of its load or discharge port.
2. Ship-to-Ship Transfers
A first vessel will take its clandestine cargo away from the country in question before transferring it to a waiting ship, all of this happening out of sight. The vessels will then sail in different directions. For about a third of Iranian exports, more than one tanker typically handles a load before it’s delivered to its final destination, analysts say.
3. Fake Destinations
Signaling the wrong destination to load or unload is another technique. Ships that intend to take cargo from Iran may indicate their loading ports in sanction-free places like Iraq. Ships can keep changing their destinations and end up not berthing at any of them.
4. Rebranded Barrels
Iranian barrels can also be rebranded as oil from a nation free from sanctions such as Iraq. The countries share fields along their border and the crude has similar characteristics. Oil from these deposits can be trucked out to another port and documents forged to hide Iran as the origin.
* Bloomberg
Habib El Qalb
Assi Al Hallani
(Rotana)
2020 Oscars winners: in numbers
- Parasite – 4
- 1917– 3
- Ford v Ferrari – 2
- Joker – 2
- Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood – 2
- American Factory – 1
- Bombshell – 1
- Hair Love – 1
- Jojo Rabbit – 1
- Judy – 1
- Little Women – 1
- Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl) – 1
- Marriage Story – 1
- Rocketman – 1
- The Neighbors' Window – 1
- Toy Story 4 – 1
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Studying addiction
This month, Dubai Medical College launched the Middle East’s first master's programme in addiction science.
Together with the Erada Centre for Treatment and Rehabilitation, the college offers a two-year master’s course as well as a one-year diploma in the same subject.
The move was announced earlier this year and is part of a new drive to combat drug abuse and increase the region’s capacity for treating drug addiction.
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
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%3Cp%3EApril%2021-23%3A%20Imola%3Cbr%3EMay%205-7%3A%20Misano%3Cbr%3EMay%2026-28%3A%20SPA-Francorchamps%3Cbr%3EJune%2023-25%3A%20Monza%3Cbr%3EJuly%2021-23%3A%20Paul%20Ricard%3Cbr%3ESept%2029-Oct%201%3A%20Mugello%3Cbr%3EOct%2013-15%3A%20Vallelunga%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Manchester City (0) v Liverpool (3)
Uefa Champions League, quarter-final, second leg
Where: Etihad Stadium
When: Tuesday, 10.45pm
Live on beIN Sports HD
INDIA SQUADS
India squad for third Test against Sri Lanka
Virat Kohli (capt), Murali Vijay, Lokesh Rahul, Shikhar Dhawan, Cheteshwar Pujara, Ajinkya Rahane, Rohit Sharma, Wriddhiman Saha, Ravichandran Ashwin, Ravindra Jadeja, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Shami, Umesh Yadav, Ishant Sharma, Vijay Shankar
India squad for ODI series against Sri Lanka
Rohit Sharma (capt), Shikhar Dhawan, Ajinkya Rahane, Shreyas Iyer, Manish Pandey, Kedar Jadhav, Dinesh Karthik, Mahendra Singh Dhoni, Hardik Pandya, Axar Patel, Kuldeep Yadav, Yuzvendra Chahal, Jasprit Bumrah, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Siddarth Kaul
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
